🌽 Corn coming at you 🚢Fundamental Data👇
🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 25.61%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
406,680 Metric Tons (A marketing year low)
⬇️ 194,388 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 92,388 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 391,474 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
24,458,454 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 6,708,737 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 24%
Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 50%
Bearish 🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 19%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🟢 Marketing year high in export sales was achieved for US Corn
🟢 China has been an active buyer of US grains and oilseeds - Corn, Wheat, Sorghum, and Soybeans
🟢 Corn bids are inverted in many pockets of the Western Corn Belt showing a reflection of the difficulty of purchasing cash corn as well as decent processing margins (Ethanol)
🔴/🟢 Drought is starting to bounce back in the Corn growing states but still better then last year (more important for 2024)
🔴 / 🟢 Funds are now net short the most amount of futures & options since the start of the most recent bull market in Corn (2020)
🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🔴 Mississippi river levels are at +5 year lows.
🔴 Seasonal builds of ethanol stocks increase from here to February (pressures Ethanol margins)
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Corn: -206,478 Contracts (Position as of 11/28)
MATIF Corn: -6,450 Contracts (Position as of 11/24)
Corn Commentary 🌽
Corn appears to have been priced just right enough to attract demand with a marketing year high in export sales achieved *prior* to the collapse in futures prices last week. This week we will learn if those low prices incentivized even *more* export demand when the USDA releases export sales figures on Thursday.
Regardless, there is still plenty of Corn out there and it’s becoming even more difficult to move it due to:
1) Low water levels on the Mississippi River
2) Panama Canal congestion due to low water levels.
Both of which are helping attract Corn to be delivered by rail to Mexico and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) for export where destinations in Latin America and Far East Asia do not need to traverse through the Panama Canal.
That’s the current and main story the trade is watching from a domestic point of view, but what lies ahead?
Largely we’re getting ready to discuss planting decisions for *next years crop* and much of that influence will come from what happens in South America regarding weather and politics, both of which are unpredictable but will have an immense impact on the world supply and demand of grains and oilseeds. (Stay tuned and watch our X news feed for the story to develop)
Technicals💹
Corn successfully reversed and broke the downtrend we mentioned last week but failed to settle above it. Regardless, there is now a rangebound trade between 4.70 and 4.93 that can go either way.
We'll note that the technicians will say that resistance could break and Corn could rally significantly, but there is still a +2.15 billion bushel expected carryout out there and would higher prices attract demand or kill it?
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Targets: 4.895, 4.9325
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.75, 4.705, 4.62
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