6AU2016 trade ideas
AUDUSD Futures coming into key area soonThis is futures, not spot pricing. Please see the other chart (link below) for the larger view.
So far this has worked perfectly.
Still want to see .78 before the large short, but we may fail short of it.
Australian Dollar (monthly) - supportAustralian Dollar has reached support at 0.7. Look for buying opportunities.
AUDUSD: Strong downtrend active, but for how much longer?After analyzing the vixfix spikes and 75% retracement levels, and their effects on price when retesting said levels, and contrasting these to the time at mode signals on this chart I concluded that the downtrend in the Australian dollar might be short lived, althought potentially very steep.
I projected two targets on chart, as well as the different potential support levels, derived from range expansion bars, as well as vix fix spike retracements, and a linear regression of the current weekly trend.
It's clear to me that for now the opportunities are to go short on retracements until the downtrend time expires, or we reach the range target at least.
The dollar rally, if tied to the S&P500 and the US treasury bonds rally might be short lived based on my analysis on the subject, but don't be quick to discard this trend right here. I anticipate an accelerated decline in this pair, so I'll continue to look for short opportunities while my time at mode downtrend signal is valid. Multiple time at mode and Elliott Wave signals point to a strong rally in the S&P, with positive correlation in TLT, until it peaks. I keep getting time at mode uptrend expirations by the end of August, and if the expanding terminal wedge is confirmed, the start of the US equities bear market might match with said dates.
Will update this thread with audusd opportunities from now on.
AUDUSD: Extremely oversold, rallying back to the mode?Analysis on chart, we had a bearish trend signal that has been consumed, price hit the target and is starting to reverse.
We can attemp buying above the 0.7061 mark if trading futures, or 0.70624 if trading spot forex, with the stop loss at 0.6905 and 0.69087 respectively.
Rgmov in the spot chart looks really good, forming new highs, sharply, might be an emerging uptrend.
After we're in, we can proceed to scale in on retracements, and to trail the stop up if the trade works.
Good luck!
Ivan.
E-Mini Forex Synopsis in $EUR $JPY $GBP $AUD | #forex $DXY $USDLooking at the majors in e-mini Forex, here is a quick synopsis of potential price action - Black levels are model-based R/S level projection; Colors are TG-Hi/Lo in red and TG-Hix/Lox in purple.
$EUR vs. $USD:
Expected to lose ground against USD. A hard structure stands at 1.1538 to invalidate this bearish outlook. In opposite, a softer ground at 1.1267 would open floor to bearish targets if breached, defined as:
1 - 1.1026 - 17 FEB 2015
and
2 - 1.0797 - 17 FEB 2015
$GBP vs. $USD:
Background geometry raises the expectation of a decline. Using my empirical rule, this WW is likely to seek support at the corresponding level of Point-4 before a rallying could materialize. Point-3 offers a wide or loose layer of bullish resistance whereas Point-1 projects into a much tested level of bullish entrenchment. This alone should offer assurance against a possible interim adverse excursion.
$JPY vs. $USD:
A soft floor stands at 0.8370 against a potential resistance at 0.8450. Predictive/forecasting model is currently favoring a decline down to 0.8284, representing a solid bottom from which a rallying into higher highs could ensue.
$AUD vs. $USD
Predictive/forecasting model remains bullish here. Still, a cautionary level comes at 0.7641 to invalidate any enduring bullish outlook.
At its antipodal position, a significant resistance level at 0.7865 should open the roof to loftier levels if and once transgressed. In the most proximate position, 0.7912 could offer a temporary relief to bulls, but it would not likely thwart the expected advanced to the predictive/forecasting model targets, which are defined as:
1 - 0.8024 - 17 FEB 2015
and
2 - 0.8183 - 17 FEB 2015
OVERALL: These e-mini Forex pairs offer directional clues and targets that are defined based on a pure technical basis. The underlying geo-political development could impose their own interdictions, as much as their own implied intentions further verified within these charts as they develop. Due the due, refer to reliable sources in inter-market analysis and geopolitical development if you need a broader, more mixed set of data outside of a pure technical statement.
Stay tuned, as I will also post these chart in their own thread - See their links below.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
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David Alcindor
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Bottom picking the AUDNZD crossA lot of traders have taken interest in the AUDNZD cross since 2014 as prices have reached a level around 1.04/05 that's held firm since 1979. While we may see another bounce off 1.035 in the coming days, recent price action suggests a risk of diving further towards multi-year lows before a true bottom can take shape. Looking at a monthly chart over the past 16 years, I've noticed a trendline that comes in at around the 1.005 level. I'd suspect that if prices fall further, we'll see some kind of initial reaction to the upside when the Aussie dollar nears parity with the Kiwi dollar. Be mindful that the end of the bearish cycle may be close, but it seems to me too soon to call.
A technically strategic zone for AUDCHFThe AUDCHF cross has caught my eye because prices started rebounding off their 2011 lows after the SNB event in January. The fundamentals remain bearish given the Swiss franc's strength and the RBA's monetary policy. The technicals suggest however that this pair could hold above 0.63 CHF with a long-term channel support around this level. This is definitely something to watch if the Swiss franc continues to strengthen.
$AUDUSD at May 2010 Low Key Line$AUDUSD is sitting on the 0.8047 Support which is the Low of May 2010. Where will it be going ? Will this support hold ?Can we say this is the bottom ? Let watch this line more closely.
AUDJPY Long-Term Double Top?A long-term look at the AUDJPY cross allows us to see a clear trendline resistance at the 101.70 level. Now that the market has fallen 400 pips after coming close to its 2013 highs in November, a long term double top seems possible. In a similar idea, I suggested a USDJPY reversal for the beginning of 2015, which I also see with the AUDJPY cross now.
A61! short entryFrom bulish shark, rebound(50% is likely)
0.9343, near 20ma
There could be Short entry,bcause trend turned
watch for the emerging crab
I choose 0.934 entry, to 0.92, stop avobe 0.9386
Trading Idea AUD/USDTrading Idea AUD/USD 2014:
limit buy 0,8830
stop loss 0,8635
take profit 1,0090
risk_reward_ratio 6,52
Aussie long 6A (AD) Aussie is getting stronger. 20MA crossed the 50MA - bull trend. Recently retraced to the 20MA. The trend up could resume soon. Pull back to 0.88-0.87 is possible and would be ideal to enter long otherwise I'll buy at trend-line breakout targeting 0.94 in one month time.
Testing the double window set-up
Long Aussie6A (AD) Aussie is getting stronger. 20MA crossed the 50MA. Recently pulled back to the 20MA. The trend up could resume soon. Buy at trend-line breakout targeting 0.94 in one month time.
AUSSIE LONGAussie has bottomed. The monthly chart is showing that we have reached a support inside a long term channel . The daily chart again has multiple supports in action here. A bounce to 0.90 level is in the cards at this point.
Aussie monthly chart The Aussie is setting up for a buy. Monthly chart showing an interesting support level.
AUDNZDRunning out of steam to the downside. has been following the 2003 A6/N6 spread very well, weekly RSI oversold turning back up. A lower low would be tremendously bullish
Will the "Aussie" follow the Yen !! I don 't trade Forex, but a friend of mine showed me this chart here of the Aussie dollar futures vs Japanese Yen Futures. The correlation is pretty good . My question for the Forex traders here, do you expect the Aussie to follow the Yen ? By just looking at the chart, I'm tempted to go short. ( Aussie in Blue )
Algo
