British Pound at CoT extremes not seen since 2007The British Pound is at CoT extremes not seen since 2007. COT RSI also high on weekly chart for commercials and low for speculators.
6BU2017 trade ideas
GBP INDEXRemember, Forex trading involves risk, and there are no guarantees of profit. It's important to invest only what you can afford to lose.
FUNDAMENTAL IDEAConsistency and Long-Term Perspective: Forex trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Focus on consistency in your trading approach and aim for sustainable profits over the long term. Avoid getting discouraged by short-term losses and stay committed to your trading goals.
Double bottom after selling climaxBy price structure and volume analysis we can identified selling climax
m30 show double bottom that already break and retest to confirm this entry
also in 4H if we check Elliott wave it possible that now GBPUSD is on 3th wave
$M6B - Huge Drop and High timeframe reversal coming upM6B had a huge drop today and checks all the boxes on the change of structure, liquidity grab on both the 4hr and 15m charts. On top of that the .618 (Orange) is right at the $1.2641. If this breaks into the grey box below and does not close below $1.2609 then it is a really good solid play. I put the PT at $1.2755 which was yesterday's close, but the .618 on the way down (Green) is at $1.2766, so above the close.
Short British PoundCommercials have been actively distributing sterling over the past month and a half, even as large and small speculators persist in taking long positions. However, today witnessed a startling turn of events as the Bank of England caught the market off guard by implementing a substantial 50 basis point rate hike. In the event that the price concludes the day on a downward trajectory, I will initiate a short position on the British Pound. This occurrence exemplifies a phenomenon known as 'news failure,' wherein bullish news unexpectedly yields bearish price action. Consequently, if today indeed marks the peak of the market, I intend to set my stop loss order at the day's high.
GBP - 1.24 Lower Next?!GBP - 1.24 Next?! CME:6B1! FX:GBPUSD
GBPUSD - 1.24 Next!
We've had a great run, I'd still be buying longer term dips on GBP - However, for now I feel a pull back is due and this is great opportunity for us traders to take opportunities of the bull and bear side!
Overall pattern, wedge - We've broken to down side the first area of interest to me is 1.24/ 1.23 high areas and the next would be 1.22 areas! If we are to close above 1.25 i'd be re thinking this plan...
Trade Journal
(Not Financial Advice)
GBPUSD - Short Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
Short 6B target 1.261I am short /6B here with a target of 1.261 as price has reached a premium array and looks like it wants to reprice lower.
GBP - Month & Quarter End...GBP - Month & Quarter End...
What a quarter we've had...We do still have plenty of data coming out today. Buckle up!
We just had EUR CPI flash coming out lower than expected but the core is in line but today we have another important data print coming out of US - Core PCE Price Index m/m. Which is a key metric the FED are taking into account.
Now I don't know about you but end of the month and end of the quarter is week I take off and just watch the market as we do get lot of funky moves and I know a lot people struggle with FOMO I was one of them but you got know when to step away and stand on the side line! GBP we hitting the key resistance areas the next area to take into consideration is 1.24/1.25 areas. I've been bullish GBP since the start of the year and I am still very much bullish on GBP but you got trade what you see, not what you think. You can see through my 2023 post regarding where most of them majors could reach.
Now where we are today technically, in a bullish trend as long as we are within this channel on cable, we go above the areas of 1.24500 then I expect 1.26 - key resistance is 1.25 keep that in mind... but if we struggle and we go below the areas of 1.2310 support then I expect 1.22 to be key support.
Now, i'd be careful trading today....It's Friday a good trader well known as 'Coach' always stated "Don't make your PnL on Friday!"
Let's have a great Q2 - all the best traders!
Trade Journal
What a ranging week for GBPUSDHere my outlook for FOREXCOM:GBPUSD next week, let's see what will happen.
GBPUSD Short-Term AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
pound🎯 I m in the short, BOE in a few minutes but I hold thru the news.
🟧Entry basics
Never enter blindly on the level. Always put everything in a higher timeframe context. The level must be violated and the price has to do a pullback and Break of the structure. Then you look for the entry on the order block or FVG above/below 50% pullback. SL is above swing high and set TP to 3R. Don't try to predict where the price will go next or don't try to take 1:50R trade. We trade intraday reversal and reaction on the level. We get our 3R and get out of the market.
For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture
🟩When to enter the trade
Setup and entry must occur at these times, as it's the time when we can get the biggest volatility and highest probability
🔵London Session - 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time
🟢New York Session - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time
This Strategy is not about predicting the market and the next movements. It's about the trading reaction in the liquidity levels. Which is good enough to make money by trading a couple of hours a week.
GBPUSD perhaps moving up?FX:GBPUSD Well this gonna be hard to tell. GBP USD is in clear bullish move since Nov 2022, and now accumulate/distribute. There are so many news which hurt TVC:DXY
I'm expect OANDA:GBPUSD will go up for a few more week. It's has a perfect pullback to the 50% when moving up from Nov 4th, has something like Spring in Wyckoff. Price try to move lower but market didn't accept it. Let's test the upside one more time.
pound🎯 I will be looking for entries in the external liquidity levels as highlighted on the charts
🟩 Trading TIme
Setups must occur at these times otherwise I'm not interested.
🔵London Killzone - LOKZ 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time
🟢New York Killzone - NYKZ - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time
🟧Entry Scheme
Never enter blindly on the level. Always look for the break of the structure and pullback as the scheme shows.
Yes, sometimes the market will not pull back and you miss a trade that's the part of the game. But it's better not to be in the trade you want to be than,
being in the trade you don't want to be.
For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture
🟦 Rules
-Skip the London session if the Asia session was trending
- Wait for manipulation at the session open, which enters HTF POI and takes out Buy-side liquidity/ Sell-side Liquidity
- Look at smart money divergence as the additional confluence
- Wait for Break of Structure ( M1 if in sync with trend / HTF BOS if counter-trend) + displacement/momentum shift M3 /M5 candle close for confirmation
- Figure out: where is your invalidation (SL) and FPOL (TP1) before entering your trade
- Enter short at pullback to first POI (FVG/ OTE /OB) above respective EQ ( discount ) of Return to origin area on lower timeframe
- Set SL above swing low of manipulation, as price already took LQ out it should not go there again.
- When the price moves 50% of the expected Target range, the stop loss can be trimmed by 25%
- When the price moves 75% of the expected range the stop loss can be trimmed to breakeven
- Never trade a POI that has liquidity resting above (short) or below (long),
- Don't enter when FPOL (for example swing low/high) has been hit before getting you into the position
- Never enter a trade right before news events.
- Don't try to predict the market, just take 1:3 RR on the level and get out.
- This is intraday trading but there is no trade every day.
Pick just the best setups. In theory, we have 2 pairs, 2 trading sessions 5 trading days in a week its 20 opportunities.
You don't need to trade them all. With 1:3 RR, making consistently 3 good trades in a week will put you into top 1% class of traders.
🟦Market Maker model Schematics
🟪Smart Money Divergence
The dollar index and USD pairs usually trade asymmetric, for example, DXY making higher highs will result in $EURUSD making lower lows and vice versa. When the price on one has lower lows, it is expected that the other should reach higher highs. When this does not occur, we have smart money Divergence. This is suggestive of major accumulation/consolidation in advance of a major move in the opposite direction.
This is just the basics of my strategy, but enough for you to know what to do on the levels.
👊 BRUCE LEE´S RECOMMENDATIONS:
1 ) “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
- Inspired by elements of Market Profile, ICT, and SupplyandDemands strategies I adapted what is useful, rejected useless and added specifically my own parts.
2) “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.“
- The quote above teaches us about mastery. You don't need to know 5 strategies, tenths of formations, or have 20 pairs on the watchlist. Learn 1 setup pick up 2 pairs and practice them 10 000 times, and become a specialist.
If you have any questions write a comment I'm happy to help
Good luck
Dave FX Hunter
pound🎯 I will be looking for entries in the external liquidity levels as highlighted on the charts
🟩 Trading TIme
Setups must occur at these times otherwise I'm not interested.
🔵London Killzone - LOKZ 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time
🟢New York Killzone - NYKZ - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time
🟧Entry Scheme
Never enter blindly on the level. Always look for the break of the structure and pullback as the scheme shows.
Yes, sometimes the market will not pull back and you miss a trade that's the part of the game. But it's better not to be in the trade you want to be than,
being in the trade you don't want to be.
For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture
🟦 Rules
-Skip the London session if the Asia session was trending
- Wait for manipulation at the session open, which enters HTF POI and takes out Buy-side liquidity/ Sell-side Liquidity
- Look at smart money divergence as the additional confluence
- Wait for Break of Structure ( M1 if in sync with trend / HTF BOS if counter-trend) + displacement/momentum shift M3 /M5 candle close for confirmation
- Figure out: where is your invalidation (SL) and FPOL (TP1) before entering your trade
- Enter short at pullback to first POI (FVG/ OTE /OB) above respective EQ ( discount ) of Return to origin area on lower timeframe
- Set SL above swing low of manipulation, as price already took LQ out it should not go there again.
- When the price moves 50% of the expected Target range, the stop loss can be trimmed by 25%
- When the price moves 75% of the expected range the stop loss can be trimmed to breakeven
- Never trade a POI that has liquidity resting above (short) or below (long),
- Don't enter when FPOL (for example swing low/high) has been hit before getting you into the position
- Never enter a trade right before news events.
- Don't try to predict the market, just take 1:3 RR on the level and get out.
- This is intraday trading but there is no trade every day.
Pick just the best setups. In theory, we have 2 pairs, 2 trading sessions 5 trading days in a week its 20 opportunities.
You don't need to trade them all. With 1:3 RR, making consistently 3 good trades in a week will put you into top 1% class of traders.
🟦Market Maker model Schematics
🟪Smart Money Divergence
The dollar index and USD pairs usually trade asymmetric, for example, DXY making higher highs will result in $EURUSD making lower lows and vice versa. When the price on one has lower lows, it is expected that the other should reach higher highs. When this does not occur, we have smart money Divergence. This is suggestive of major accumulation/consolidation in advance of a major move in the opposite direction.
This is just the basics of my strategy, but enough for you to know what to do on the levels.
👊 BRUCE LEE´S RECOMMENDATIONS:
1 ) “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
- Inspired by elements of Market Profile, ICT, and SupplyandDemands strategies I adapted what is useful, rejected useless and added specifically my own parts.
2) “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.“
- The quote above teaches us about mastery. You don't need to know 5 strategies, tenths of formations, or have 20 pairs on the watchlist. Learn 1 setup pick up 2 pairs and practice them 10 000 times, and become a specialist.
If you have any questions write a comment I'm happy to help
Good luck
Dave FX Hunter
pound🎯 I will be looking for entries in the external liquidity levels as highlighted on the charts
🟩 Trading TIme
Setups must occur at these times otherwise I'm not interested.
🔵London Killzone - LOKZ 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time
🟢New York Killzone - NYKZ - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time
🟧Entry Scheme
Never enter blindly on the level. Always look for the break of the structure and pullback as the scheme shows.
Yes, sometimes the market will not pull back and you miss a trade that's the part of the game. But it's better not to be in the trade you want to be than,
being in the trade you don't want to be.
For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture
🟦 Rules
-Skip the London session if the Asia session was trending
- Wait for manipulation at the session open, which enters HTF POI and takes out Buy-side liquidity/ Sell-side Liquidity
- Look at smart money divergence as the additional confluence
- Wait for Break of Structure ( M1 if in sync with trend / HTF BOS if counter-trend) + displacement/momentum shift M3 /M5 candle close for confirmation
- Figure out: where is your invalidation (SL) and FPOL (TP1) before entering your trade
- Enter short at pullback to first POI (FVG/ OTE /OB) above respective EQ ( discount ) of Return to origin area on lower timeframe
- Set SL above swing low of manipulation, as price already took LQ out it should not go there again.
- When the price moves 50% of the expected Target range, the stop loss can be trimmed by 25%
- When the price moves 75% of the expected range the stop loss can be trimmed to breakeven
- Never trade a POI that has liquidity resting above (short) or below (long),
- Don't enter when FPOL (for example swing low/high) has been hit before getting you into the position
- Never enter a trade right before news events.
- Don't try to predict the market, just take 1:3 RR on the level and get out.
- This is intraday trading but there is no trade every day.
Pick just the best setups. In theory, we have 2 pairs, 2 trading sessions 5 trading days in a week its 20 opportunities.
You don't need to trade them all. With 1:3 RR, making consistently 3 good trades in a week will put you into top 1% class of traders.
🟦Market Maker model Schematics
🟪Smart Money Divergence
The dollar index and USD pairs usually trade asymmetric, for example, DXY making higher highs will result in $EURUSD making lower lows and vice versa. When the price on one has lower lows, it is expected that the other should reach higher highs. When this does not occur, we have smart money Divergence. This is suggestive of major accumulation/consolidation in advance of a major move in the opposite direction.
This is just the basics of my strategy, but enough for you to know what to do on the levels.
👊 BRUCE LEE´S RECOMMENDATIONS:
1 ) “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
- Inspired by elements of Market Profile, ICT, and SupplyandDemands strategies I adapted what is useful, rejected useless and added specifically my own parts.
2) “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.“
- The quote above teaches us about mastery. You don't need to know 5 strategies, tenths of formations, or have 20 pairs on the watchlist. Learn 1 setup pick up 2 pairs and practice them 10 000 times, and become a specialist.
If you have any questions write a comment I'm happy to help
Good luck
Dave FX Hunter
$GBP - A break to either direction!$GBP - A break to either direction!
Great set up - A break to either direction, quiet week due to the holidays!
Don't forget to trade your own plan!
Trade Journal
deep and shallow volume confluenceVolume confluence with these low levels. Price has strong buyers underneath so get ready for USD strength which can confluence into some indices weakness tomorrow
Tug of War Among Central BanksThere is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this?
i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency.
ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row.
iii. The Bank of England could join the club on Thursday.
Content:
. The Interest Rate race has just started, why?
. The impact on different currencies
. It may not be all bad news, why?
With higher interest rates, it attracts investors to buy its currency, in this case the USD.
Currency is always a pair, when USD strengthens, the other side weakens.
When a currency gets weaker, it is very bad news for inflation because they will have to pay more on their imports.
Therefore in order to counter inflation, one of the best measures is to hike rate
Expect more volatility in the currencies market, meaning currencies will take its turn to move.
And if you are a trader, you should welcome volatility. Because with volatility, there are opportunities.
GBP Futures
0.0001 = $6.25
0.001 = $62.50
0.01 = $625
0.1 = $6,250
1.1000 to 1.2000 = $6,250
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
$GBP slipper slope - shortOne-year risk reversals in cable, a barometer of market positioning and sentiment, rallied on Monday in favor of calls by the most since June 2016, implying bearish sentiment haunting the currency retreated almost as fast as the government’s decision to scrap plans for vast unfunded fiscal stimulus. The gauge had reached a record bearish level last week on concern the policy would balloon the government deficit and fan inflation.
In an added sign of the improving outlook, hedge funds -- which flock to options markets to place large bets -- have been closing options structures that pay out should the pound weaken since Friday. That’s according to Europe-based traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.
To be sure, bearish bets still dominate the options space and the magnitude of the move was mainly down to extreme positioning. Still, it shows investors now see lower chances for a deep drop in the UK currency following the policy U-Turn. The repositioning came as the pound rallied on Monday, outperforming Group-of-10 peers to rise 1.7% to $1.1358.
Sterling swung between gains and losses in early trading on Tuesday following a report the Bank of England is likely to delay its planned sale of government bonds. It was trading 0.2% weaker at $1.1339 as of 9:29 a.m. London.
I disagree w/this analysis. I believe the headwinds remain unchanged and they are strong. The market isn't the public, it votes w/its money and the smart money is selling. Further, the BOE isn't in the business of buying gilts (bonds) but it did and is holding them. Why? because when Truss put them to mkt - they got no bid. The BOE smartly doesn't want to get the same pie on its face so, its booking them. Nothing has changed. Down range it remains the same.
