EURUSD Long TradeTechnicals:
EUR sitting inside daily demand + DXY correlation
Fundamentals/Sentiment:
- COT reports nearing MAX long. Last time 2 months ago we ere at 277k and banks offloaded shorts so I'm anticipating same thing with price also inside technical demand.
- Mixed fundamentals strong for DXY, FED Cen
Compare with Euro FX Futures (Dec 2022)
6E: Euro downside protection keeps rallies vulnerable6E has a conditional short setup as French fiscal and bond-spread stress continues to dominate euro pricing. Spot EUR/USD has already breached the reported 1.1300 and 1.1200 option barriers, while demand for downside protection has shifted toward the 1.1100 area, leaving rebounds vulnerable if buyer
When Following the Trend Becomes the TrapTrend Can Be Right and the Entry Still Wrong
One of the most useful distinctions in technical analysis is the difference between direction and location.
A market can be in a clearly defined downtrend. Selling can therefore be directionally consistent with that trend. Yet the location at which a t
Weekly Review (Sep 28 - Oct 2): Bonds, Rates & the EuroWeekly review for September 28 - October 2. A more macro week: the bond market and the rate story are doing the talking, and the euro is the one chart. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Context
Euro FX Futures: Failed Retest Can Release DownsideThe edge is not simply Dollar strength, it is that the break has occurred with downside protection being bought, fewer reported option positions below 1.1400 to cushion the fall, and a stretched long-Dollar tape that argues for waiting for a cleaner retest rather than selling weakness immediately.
The euro reaches a potential turning point versus the dollarEUR/USD has broken through support at $1.135 and is now reaching oversold conditions, with a relative strength index below 30 and the exchange rate trading at its lower Bollinger Band. This does not mean the decline in EUR/USD is over, but it may mean the euro’s sell-off against the dollar is due fo
Euro & British Pound Futures. Eye-Balling For a Post FOMC ReliefIt's been roughly 10 days since The Federal Reserve has delivered a hawkish surprise, raising interest rates by 25 basis points and indicating that another increase may follow later this year.
Although this decision initially strengthens the U.S. dollar and places pressure on risk assets, the reac
Weekly Review (Sep 21-25): EUR, Gold & the Dollar IndexWeekly review for September 21-25. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Recap: a few good trades last week. Gold went down as shown, came back to the zone we'd been working shorts from, then moved
Euro FX Futures: ECB and US PPI Support-Hold Test6E is a conditional long only after the ECB statement, US PPI and the press conference have cleared.
Where the edge is
The edge is a timed event-release setup, not a pre-event directional chase. Low conviction and depressed implied volatility leave EUR vulnerable to a sharper move once the ECB/PP
EURUSD 15m — Short Pressure and Return to the Daily MeanEURUSD (15m) delivered excellent trading conditions from late August through last week, with clean and sustained bullish movements.
In the most recent sessions, however, price action is showing signs of a potential new short‑side direction, supported by both lower and higher timeframes.
Our advance
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A representation of what an asset is worth today and what the market thinks it will be worth in the future.
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.
Frequently asked questions
The nearest expiration date for Euro FX Futures (Dec 2022) is Dec 19, 2022.
Traders prefer to sell futures contracts when they've already made money on the investment, but still have plenty of time left before the expiration date. Thus, many consider it a good option to sell Euro FX Futures (Dec 2022) before Dec 19, 2022.









