Instead of looking the curve of the price for lean hogs in the short term, which shows a most obvious down since July 14, I noticed that in the long term this market is in a Bull-Trend from 1999. The consumption of the porcine meats has constantly increased in the last 10-15 years, favoring also a grow of the US meats production, that has reached industrial...
What an extremely sharp move after a crossover deep below overbought range, right before a huge day on 1-30-15. I wish I could say that I rode this all the way up to it's top but I had a nice little profit at 10.875 and exited when it leveled off after it's strong open just over 11.000. Looking at it now, a trailing stop using the last 14 days Average True Range,...
If you were to take a lesson from this as to a characteristic of RSI, look at this dip under the 70 line before it surges back into overbought territory.
HEZ2014 contract. 20MA crossing 50MA - trendline out of question - it could consolidate longer but just in case I'll place a sell order to catch the next move towards 87.8.
Swing failure in proximity of the 1/1 bull Gann line. The market is poised to move lower. Target on the down sloping ML. Large speculators are holding extreme long positions and might start to liquidate soon. Notice also that all the livestock sector is at historical highs and is showing signs of reversal (see LEZ and GFX contracts)
Well, here it seems that we have finally reached a top. The Lower low on Tuesday (01 Oct 13) should be followed by a lower high at this point. If today high is confirmed as a pivot point the price is poised to move from the 1/1 Gann line to the 2/1. Target is 83.000.
Clip from Animal House!
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On 14 Aug 13 price crossed the 87.000 resistance, touched the upward sloping 1//1 Gann line but two days later pulled back inside the 83.000-87.000 'rectangle'. It's a sell with first target 83.000 (rectangle base) and second 80.000 (longer term target). Seasonal trend usually bear.
Movie clip
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Got stopped in my first attempt but I'm re-entering a short here. Hog are at historical price highs and from a seasonal point of view they are typically weak till late October. Hogs have reached resistance at 99.500-100.000. Price action over the last few days suggests that a reversal is in place. I expect a quick fall during the next 2-3days back to the 1/1 Gann...
Seasonally weak till late October. Hogs have reached resistance at 99.500. Price action over the last few days suggests that a reversal is in place. I expect a quick fall during the next 2-3days back to the 1/1 Gann and 20 MA where another consolidation could take place.
Trend is up but I think hogs are setting up for a sell soon. Friday inside day might be a sign. Support is at 82.58 where i'm planning to take profit. After that the market should run again. Feedback please!
