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Live Cattle Futures (Jun 2018)

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LEM2018 trade ideas

Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 147.900 Pivot: 144.275 Support : 141.100 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.275 to the 1st resistance at 147.900 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.100 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!Long
by Genesiv
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!
by Tickmill
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!
by Tickmill
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!Long
by Genesiv
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!
by Tickmill
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!Long
by Genesiv
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!
by Tickmill
Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Live Cattle Futures (LE1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 148.125 Pivot: 144.475 Support : 141.150 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 144.475 to the 1st resistance at 148.125 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 141.150 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CME:LE1!Long
by Genesiv
Live Cattle are on the MOOOOVEWatch us on RFD-TV, today at 9:45 AM CT! Cattle Summary Daily Cutout Values Choice: 257.26, Down .75 from the previous day. Select: 234.73, Down 1.31 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 22.53 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 142.17 Live Heifer: 141.54 Dressed Steer: 226.63 Dressed Heifer: 227.19 Daily Slaughter Estimated at 127,000. 4,000 more than last week and 7,000 more than the same week last year. Feeder Cattle Index 9/08/2022: 181.24 9/072022: 180.31 Technical Snapshot Live Cattle October live cattle futures staged an impressive rally on Friday, trading back near the top end of the August range. Resistance remains intact, we see that as 145.975-146.25. A breakout and close above this pocket could spur another leg higher, with the next and last meaningful resistance pocket coming in from 147.35-147.50. This pocket represents the contract highs from April. We remain skeptical of a bigger directional move, but it appears outside markets are taking on the " risk-on" attitude which could be supportive to cattle. Resistance: 145.975-146.25***, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 143.25-143.775 Support: 141.75-142.10****, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Drift LowerCattle Summary Daily Cutout Values Choice: 258.34, Down 1.45 from the previous day. Select: 237.74, Down 1.94 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 20.60 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.85 Live Heifer:145.00 Dressed Steer: 229.85 Dressed Heifer: 229.80 Daily Slaughter Estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 more than last week and 6,000more than the same week last year. Feeder Cattle Index 8/30/2022: 183.04 8/29/2022: 183.00 Technical Snapshot Live Cattle October live cattle broke lower yesterday, taking out the previous day's low, making its way closer to the cluster of major moving averages, which we've listed as near-term downside target for some time now. If the market is unable to defend this support pocket, it's possible that we see the selling accelerate. We are keeping a very close eye on outside markets as they remain volatile and seemingly uneasy. Resistance: 145.10-145.975***, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 143.25-143.775 Support: 141.75-142.10****, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Shrug Off Outside Market WeaknessCattle Summary Daily Cutout Values Choice: 259.79, Down 3.25 from the previous day. Select: 239.68, Down 3.07 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 20.11 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.00 Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed Heifer: N/A Daily Slaughter Estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year. Feeder Cattle Index 8/29/2022: 183.00 8/26/2022: 183.16 Technical Snapshot Live Cattle October live cattle futures were able to break the 4-day streak of lower prices, on a day when the outside markets saw meaningful pressure. If you're bullish the market, this is your silver lining. The market finished the session right near the upper end of our pivot pocket, 143.25-143.775. If the Bulls can keep yesterday's momentum alive, perhaps we see a retest of 145.10-145.975. We are in the camp that the cash market may stall out, which could limit the upside. We are monitoring outside markets and commodities as a whole, if they continue to trend lower, it will be an uphill climb for live cattle. We are still in the camp that the three major moving averages could be tested in the near term. Resistance: 145.10-145.975***, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 143.25-143.775 Support: 141.75-142.10****, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Cattle Futures Finished Lower Yesterday. More of the Same TodayCattle Summary Daily Cutout Values Choice: 264.46, Up 1.09 from the previous day. Select: 239.72, Up .13 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 24.74 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.39 Live Heifer: 143.70 Dressed Steer: 229.93 Dressed Heifer: 229.86 Daily Slaughter Estimated at 124,000. 5,000 more than last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year. Feeder Cattle Index 8/12/2022: 179.04 8/11/2022: 178.28 Technical Snapshot Live Cattle October live cattle held well early in the session but gave up ground as the day continued. The Pullback brought prices back into our pivot pocket from 142.75-143.75. In yesterday’s report we noted that “The Bulls have the technical advantage until we see a breakdown back below this pocket.”. A failure to defend this level in today’s session could lead to a retest of trendline support and three major moving averages. All of these indicators come in from 141.35-141.90. With so many indicators converging in one pocket, we are labeling this as a MUST HOLD level. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 142.75-143.75 Support: 141.35-141.90****, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Cash Cattle Firms. Is There More Upside Left? Daily Cutout Values Choice: 263.37, UP .27 from the previous day. Select: 239.59 Up 2.13 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.78 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.3 Live Heifer: 143.69 Dressed Steer: 229.95 Dressed Heifer: 229.88 Daily Slaughter Estimated at 118,000. 3,000 more than last week and 2,000 more than the same week last year. Feeder Cattle Index 8/11/2022: 178.28 8/10/2022: 178.06 Commitments of Traders Update Live Cattle Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that Managed Money were net buyers of 11,067 futures/options contracts through August 9th. This expands their net long position to 49,072 contracts. Feeder Cattle Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that Managed Money were net buyers of 668 futures/options contracts through August 9th. This puts them net long 479 contracts. Technical Snapshot Live Cattle October live cattle gave back some ground on Friday, but all in all it was a constructive week with the market posting higher lows and higher highs. The market managed to work itself back into the gap from April 25th but was unable to fill that gap completely. The topside of the gap comes in at 145.975. Outside markets are under pressure this morning on the back of bearish news from China. This may put a headwind in prices to start the new week of trade. Previous resistance will act as our pivot pocket that comes in from 142.75-143.75. The Bulls have the technical advantage until we see a breakdown back below this pocket. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 142.75-143.75 Support: 141.425-141.90***, 138.025-138.35****
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Cattle Futures are on the MOOOveCattle Daily Cutout Values Choice: 263.23, Down 1.50 from the previous day. Select: 237.08 Down .62 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 26.15 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 146.00 Live Heifer: 139.15 Dressed Steer: 231.87 Dressed Heifer: N/A Daily Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. 2,000 more than last week and 8,000 more than the same week last year. Weekly Export Sales Beef: Net sales of 14,600 MT for 2022 were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Technical Snapshot Live Cattle October live cattle recovered all of the losses from the previous session and then some, achieving their highest daily close since the month of May. If the Bulls are able to defend support and mark higher lows, then the April gap is still in-play, 145.10-145.975. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 142.75-143.75 Support: 141.425-141.90***, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
A Tale of Two Americas CME:LE1! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July non-farm payrolls on August 5th and July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 10th. Both reports beat market expectations. About 528,000 new jobs were created in July, well above June level. Annualized Inflation was lowered to 8.5% from the record 9.1% in June. While strong jobs data and taming inflation show the resilience of US economy, worrying signs are emerging. There are strikingly different faces of America: 1) People with jobs and those without; 2) Financially sound public companies and struggling small businesses; 3) Commodity prices that are under control, and those still flying high. July Non-farm Payrolls According to the Census Bureau, US population was 332 million in January 2022. Civilian Labor Force data reported by the BLS was 164 million in July, 49% of total population. It appears that the non-farm report shows us only half of the country. America: People with Jobs Total number of non-farm employees was 158 million in July. Of the half-million new jobs created, Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 96,000 (18%), while retail, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing together accounted for 42,000 (8%). Service-sector jobs tend to be low-pay, part-time and/or without benefits. Health care and Government created 70,000 (13%) and 57,000 (11%) new jobs, respectively. Since 2020, the Federal government has spent trillions to fight the pandemic and rescue the economy. These jobs were funded by budget, not by growing demand of a free market. Although American consumers continue to support the economy, low-income earners are struggling with rising costs of housing, food, transportation, and household necessity. America: People without Jobs Officially, the U.S. had 5.7 million unemployed persons in July. It is very misleading. According to the July report, “The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.” If we take both into consideration, the total number of unemployed people would be 11.6 million, with real unemployment rate at 6.8%. Additionally, more than half of the population is not included in the labor force, who count children, housewives, retirees, military members, adult students, and US citizens living abroad among them. People without jobs still have living expenses. They may be supported by working family members, government programs, or charities. They are the most vulnerable when the economy turns south. Retirees with fixed income are also being hit hard. With rising price, they sometimes must make the hard choice between food, medicine, and filling up the gas tank. Now, let’s turn our focus to American businesses. American Business: Public Companies From the pandemic triggered selloff in March 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded and doubled its value to 4800 last December. In 2022, the index was down 24% in the first six months. It has since recovered half the losses, down just 11% year-to-date as of August 10th. Based on data compiled by Liberated Stock Trader, these 500 publicly traded companies employed 28 million people worldwide. Walmart (WMT) is the biggest employer with a 2.3 million workforce. Amazon (AMZN) came in 2nd, with 1.3 million employees. On average, S&P component companies have 56,000 employees. With the ability to produce and distribute their products around the world, Big Businesses could withstand the impact of higher cost or adverse policy better than most companies. According to WSJ data, as of August 5th, the trailing 12-month Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is 22.6 for S&P 500. Forward P/E is 18.2. Market expects S&P component companies to have lower earnings, but the impact of pending recession is not very significant. American Business: Private Companies Let’s start off by saying that I do not have comprehensive research on private businesses. Since most readers could only invest in the secondary market, we could use the Small-Cap Russell 2000 index as a proxy to mainstream American businesses. Russell has a YTD return of -12%, about 1% below the S&P. In the past five years, Russell underperformed S&P by 28%. Small-Cap stock performance is especially weak at time of market turmoil. A big difference is in the P/E ratio. Russell has a trailing P/E of 68.9, but the forward P/E sharply drops to 22.6. In good times, Small-Cap stock price have been inflated a lot more than the Blue-Chip. I expect their price to deflate faster in the pending recession. July CPI Data July CPI is unchanged from June month over month (M/M), and up 8.5% year over year (Y/Y). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.3% M/M and +5.9% Y/Y. Diving in the data by commodity category shows a different picture. Food: Up 1.1% M/M in July from 1.0% in June. Annualized food inflation is now 10.9%. Energy: Down 4.6% M/M, of which, gasoline, -4.6%; diesel, -4.7%; natural gas, -3.6%. Annualized energy inflation remains uncomfortably high at +33%. Gasoline price is 45% higher Y/Y after 50 days of consecutive price cuts. Commodities (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% M/M and 7.0% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected products is: New cars, +0.6% and +10.4%; Used cars, -0.4% and +6.6%; Clothing, -0.1% and 5.1%; Pharmaceuticals, +0.6% and +3.7%. Services (excluding energy): Up 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected service categories is: Housing, +0.5% and +5.7%; Transportation, -0.5% and +9.2%; Medical, +0.4% and +5.1%. Overall, inflation is lower in July only because the sharp decline in energy prices offset the price gains in food, housing, new cars and medicine . Investors' thrill in the stock market may be gone when they go the supermarkets after work. There are signs that consumers are downgrading their food purchases in the face of runaway inflation. Firstly, people tend to give up dining out in favor of cooking at home to save money. In July, food at home inflation was +1.3% M/M and +13% Y/Y. Price inflation for food consumed away from home increased at a slower pace, up 0.7% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. There is a 5.5% spread, which impacts food spending at these two segments. Secondly, meat purchases show an apparent shift toward less expensive options. In July, beef price inflated 3.4% Y/Y, while pork was up 7.6% and chicken up 17.6%. Within each meat category, lower cost products also show higher inflation, indicating more demand. For example, ground beef was up 9.7% Y/Y, while steak price was down 1.5%! Bearish Trade Ideas With the headwind facing American economy, I think that a recession is inevitable. Based on the above analysis, I recommend shorting the Russell 2000. A 60+ P/E is too rich a valuation. The index could crash harder than S&P during an economic downturn. We could consider shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 December contract (M2KZ2) . Each contract is $5 x Index. At current quote of 1,974, each contract has a notional value of $9,870. CME requires initial margin of $550. Another idea is on beef prices. American consumer generally eats more beef while dining out. With the shift to cooking at home and buying cheaper meat, I expect beef prices to fall faster than pork price during a recession. We could short the CME Live Cattle December contract (LEZ2) . Each contract is 40,000 pounds of cattle. At current quote of 150.575, each contract has a notional value of $60,230. CME requires initial margin of $1,600. The futures market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odd of success. I suggest my readers to subscribe to CME market data. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
Consolidating Cattle Tuesday's Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 1,000 less than last week, but 1,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday's Cutout Values Choice: 268.46, Down 2.14 from the previous day. Select: 241.55, Down 1.35 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 26.91 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: N/A Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed Heifer: N/A Live Cattle Technicals (October): Consolidation is the name of the game for live cattle, as futures continue to tread on/near the 100-day moving average, 141.85. A break and close below this pocket could take us down to a 140.40-140.975. This pocket represents the 50 and 200 day-moving average, along with trendline support from the May 31st lows (all of which are climbing higher each day. As mentioned in previous reports and interviews, we would look at this as a potential buying opportunity for clients who want to be long. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 141.85 Support: 140.40-140.975***, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Continue to Consolidate Friday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 5,000 more than last week and 11,000 more than the same week last year. Friday’s Cutout Values Choice: 269.24, Up 1.47 from the previous day. Select: 242.25, Up 1.44from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 26.99 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 139.07 Live Heifer: 137.73 Dressed Steer: 225.42 Dressed Heifer: 225.34 Live Cattle CoT Update: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 17,841 futures/options through July 26th. This expands their net long position to 37,505. Technicals (October): For the week, October live cattle were down .775, trimming the gains for the month to 3.45. Despite the lower price action last week, the 100-day moving average was able to hold, that comes in at 141.86. A break and close below here could take us to the 50 and 200 day moving average, 140.225-140.90. Within this pocket is trendline support from the June lows. Our short-term bias is pretty neutral, but a pullback to this support pocket would likely have us looking to lean more on the bullish side. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 141.80-141.90 Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Is Cattle Due for a Pullback? Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. Unchanged from last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 269.11, Up 1.00 from the previous day. Select: 243.88, Down 1.12 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 25.23 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 141.00 Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed Heifer: N/A Live Cattle Technicals (October): October live cattle futures gave back some ground yesterday after failing to get out above technical resistance. The market pulled back, but it wasn’t enough to do any technical damage. A break and close below our pivot pocket from 141.80-141.90 may be the inflection point which may cause more damage if it cannot hold. Below that pocket, there isn’t a lot of meaningful support until you get closer to trendline support, the 50 and 200 day moving average. All of these come in from about 140-141. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the market retest these levels in the near term. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 141.80-141.90 Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEV2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Are Cattle Futures Set for a Bigger Breakout? Friday's Slaughter is estimated at 119,000. 1,000 less than last week, but 7,000 more than the same week last year. Friday's Cutout Values Choice: 267.12, Down .64 from the previous day. Select: 242.50, Up 1.97 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 24.62 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 140.65 Live Heifer: 138.50 Dressed Steer: 227.51 Dressed Heifer: 226.76 Cattle on Feed Snapshot Cattle on Feed 100% VS Estimates 99.8% Placed: 98% VS Estimates 94.3% Marketed: 102% VS Estimates 102% Live Cattle Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 1,585 contracts through July 19th. Majority of this was short covering. This puts their net position at 19,665 contracts. This is a historically small position. We would consider a net long of 40k as relatively neutral positioning. Technicals (October): Live cattle futures finally got a nice move higher on Friday, will that be sustained in today’s trade? TBD. The market is testing the highs from June 9th and June 21st. A close above here could open the door for an extension into April 25th gap, 145.10-145.975. The Bulls will want to defend 141.80-141.90. Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50** Pivot: 141.80-141.90 Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Cattle Consolidate Ahead of USDA Report Wednesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 less than last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year. Wednesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 270.53, Down 2.04 from the previous day. Select: 242.25, Down 1.48 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 28.28 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer:136.59 Live Heifer: 136.56 Dressed Steer: 227.60 Dressed Heifer: 228.00 Cattle on Feed Estimates (Report out tomorrow after the close) On-Feed: 99.8% Placed: 94.3% Marketings: 102% Live Cattle Technicals (August): The technical landscape remains unchanged as the market continues to consolidate and linger near the 100 and 200 day moving averages (135.60 and 135.70). The August contract is starting to run against the shot clock so we will start covering the October contract starting next week. Resistance: 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**, 141.625-141.825**** Pivot: 135.575-135.725 Support: 134.20**, 132.775-133.30***, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Is a bigger move on the horizon? Monday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. Unchanged from last week, but 9,000 more than the same week last year. Monday’s Cutout Values Choice: 270.55, Up 1.64 from the previous day. Select: 242.66, Up .87 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 27.89 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer:142.12 Live Heifer: 139.98 Dressed Steer: 229.48 Dressed Heifer: 229.62 Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle futures came out of the gate strong to start the week but gave back some of those early games by the afternoon session. Though the price action was again disappointing as it continues to test the patience of the Bulls, there was no technical damage done. We remain optimistic and believe that a run into the April 25th gap is still possible, but we are starting to run against the shot clock and wouldn’t recommend holding your breath for that move. Resistance: 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**, 141.625-141.825**** Pivot: 135.575-135.725 Support: 134.20**, 132.775-133.30***, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
BREAKOUT WATCHLive cattle futures are on the verge of a technical breakout, something that we've been rooting for for some time now. The cash market remains firm, and the charts are getting more constructive. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEZ2022Long
by OliverSloup_BlueLine