SPY ANALYSIS 11/16: 1 HOURThe sell side liquidity will probably be taken out before continuing downwards for buy side liquidity. This is the current trade I have - Bearish for next week. The market can go down or up after that. by StockplayssUpdated 1
ICTC Weekend Analysis -> ESOverall Bullish for Next Week. Closed Above a FVG on the Daily Making it an IFVG, Created a Swing Low on the Daily Chart. Expecting Price to reach for the next Buy Side Liquidity, Which is the Daily Target and Weekly Target I marked out. Ideally Would Like to See Price take out Sell Side Liquidity First on the Hourly before moving Price Higher.Longby pGMagicUpdated 2
ES 1221Hindsight, but 2020 range down provided price and time for 2023 H. From 0 price to ATHby meure1
11/20 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Last week's newsletter accurately predicted the market's behavior with the CPI acting as a catalyst for a significant breakout from the core downtrend channel. This led to a substantial uptrend, marking one of the year's pivotal trades. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A significant event in the global market is the victory of the Libertarian candidate in the resource-rich presidential election of Argentina. This could have far-reaching impacts on global trade and market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures Upper Resistance: 4623, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. Notable Resistance Zones: 4580, 4556, 4535-43. Significant Supports: 4485-88, 4445, 4405. 📉 Support Levels Major: 3502, 3788, 3839 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4051, 4180, 4209. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Monitor 4514-07 as critical support. A break below could signal a short-term bearish trend. Long-Term Strategy: Maintain focus on the uptrend as long as the market stays above 4405, the core downtrend channel from August. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is showing signs of consolidation after a significant uptrend. Key levels to watch are 4514-07 for potential downward movements and 4535 for resistance. The market remains in a strong uptrend, and any pullbacks should be considered within this context. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.by spytradingpro0
ES - pick your poison (short)Red above, blue below - pick your poison. I am targeting the IFVG.Shortby molehill0
Economic Lessons From 2023We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak. The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their pandemic losses by mid-2022 and continued to post strong growth in 2023, partly due to many people returning to the labor force. When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. The key for real GDP in 2023 was the strong job growth that led to robust personal consumption spending. For 2024, labor force growth and job growth are anticipated by many to slow down from the unexpectedly strong pace of 2023, leading to slower real GDP growth in 2024. And there is still plenty of debate about whether a slowdown in 2024 could turn into a recession. Followers of the inverted yield curve will point out that it was only in Q4 2023 that the yield curve decisively inverted (meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term yields). It is often cited that it takes 12 to 18 months after a yield curve inversion for a recession to commence. Using that math, Q2 2024 would be the time for economic weakness to appear based on this theory. Only time will tell. The rapid pace of inflation receding in the first half of 2023 was a very pleasant surprise. Indeed, inflation is coming under control by virtually every measure except one: shelter. The calculation of shelter inflation is highly controversial for its use of owners’ equivalent rent, which assumes the homeowner rents his house to himself and receives the income. This is an economic fiction that many argue dramatically distorts headline CPI, given that owners’ equivalent rent is 25% of the price index. Once one removes owners’ equivalent rent from the inflation calculation, inflation is only 2%, and one can better appreciate why the Federal Reserve has chosen to pause its rate hikes, even as it keeps its options open to raise rates if inflation were to unexpectedly rise again. The bottom line is that monetary policy reached a restrictive stance in late 2022 and was tightened a little more in 2023. For a data dependent Fed, inflation and jobs data for 2024 will guide us as to what might happen next. Good numbers on inflation or a recession might mean rate cuts. Otherwise, the Fed might just keep rates higher for longer. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. Editors' picksEducationby CME_Group1212491
ES 6H OverviewOverview ES is currently trading within a range from 4541 to 4508. Should the levels of 4500-4508 remain supportive, the next upward target is the supply zone around 4555. If it falls below 4500, a noteworthy area is approximately at 4485. Further down, there's a significant break and retest zone at around 4430. Key Levels Range: 4508-4541 Supply: 4555 Area of Interest: 4485 Break and Retest: 4430by AmpedTrading0
es1Update on S&P 500 on the weekly i see a break out from a possible megaphone to a measured move marked . as long as PA holds critical support of 4466by awakensoul_3691
ES support?Lets see if this is a retest of the trendline break or if it is a deviation.by LucidWRLDUpdated 3
/ES Daily as of market close 11172023 1700EST /ES Daily frame depicting corrective pullback completed at the October low 4125.50. We appear to be in the 1st wave of the new advance to the upside, targets 4553.25 and 4596 -4600 / analysis as of Friday close 11/17/2012 1700hrs EST. All pending price action / Null hypothesis. Continuation of the ongoing pullback from July high and a new (double) correction ABC to the downside and new lows beyond 4125.50 www.tradingview.comLongby miles98774
SPY Sample TradeHey Guys here is a sample trade I am taking with very low risk- I used limit orders for this trade. There is a weakening structure but I think that old high will be taken out before we move down futher. Right now not looking at shorts because of the insane upwards momentum we built - this is how "short squeeze" occurs when people bet against the market during times of crisis which cause the market to go up instead of down. by StockplayssUpdated 2
Supply and Demand Daily Trade PlanRSI momentum has broken above 60, BULLS are in control for now. Looking for a pull back into Demand (Green) and exit trade at Weak Supply zone (First Red) Trade is looking to be a 1:4 Risk to Reward. Longby MatthewSwinfordUpdated 0
11/17 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed performance. Europe: Strong upward movement. US Index Futures: Mixed strength but generally up. Crude Oil: Price increase. Dollar: Slight decrease. Yields: Marginal decline. Crypto: Mixed trends. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Yesterday, President Biden signed a temporary government spending bill, preventing a government shutdown. This move has implications for market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures The ES has entered a post-trend consolidation phase, with key structures ranging from 4507-10 to 4543+. The market is currently in "Mode 2," characterized by basing, chop, and pattern formation. The current pattern forms a bull flag with a 60% upside resolution bias. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4507, 4484-86, 4445, 4418-24. Minor: Various levels between 4507 and 4418. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4625, 4556-58, 4543. Minor: Levels ranging up to 4543. 📝 Trading Plan Supports: Focus on 4520, 4514, 4507-10, 4485-87, 4444. Resistances: Watch for 4524, 4535, 4543, 4557. Bull Case: Maintain control above 4507 for an upward trend. Bear Case: A breakdown below 4507 could lead to a short-term dip. Strategy: Emphasis on level-to-level trading within the 4507-4535 range. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach today's trading session, the focus remains on the 4507-10 support level and the 4535-40 resistance zone. With the market in a consolidation phase, traders should be prepared for choppiness and focus on level-to-level trading strategies. Remember, today is OPEX Friday, so expect pinning around key levels and limited follow-through on movements. Stay informed, trade smart, and let's navigate the markets together. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.by spytradingpro0
Possible ES longs after Area of Interest Reached daily- price trade into a BISI creating a swing low possible DOL is at high 4hr-4hr sell side taken in Asian low after going into daily bisi, followed by a break creating a bullish ob 1hr- 1hr BISI There are two areas I'm interested in possible longs, I am favoring the lower 1hr bisi because it takes out the Asian session low, of course, I will need to see a lower time frame market shift once areas are hit two things that move price is running to liquidity, or re-balancing and re-pricing to an old inefficiency apart from that its manual intervention Hint: if your pd array fails and the price goes back and re-test after you re-analyze the market from the TDA approach you can take a potential trade from an inverse perspective.Longby martiedirectUpdated 110
Can the S&P 500 (ES) Test 52-Week Highs? The S&P 500 (ES) has rallied over 8% from the lows in late October. November seasonality coupled with a rally in treasuries has provided relief for the broad index. Can we test 52-week highs before the end of the year? As we look at recent inflation data (CPI), the month of October showed that the U.S. experienced no increase in inflation. This report was largely driven by a decline in energy prices like Crude and Gasoline. The shelter component also showed an increase in the month of October, although the increase was less than the increase in the month of September. The Producer Price Index for final demand was deflationary, as PPI fell 0.5 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, after advancing 0.4 percent in September. Estimates forecasted an increase of 0.1 percent for the month in October. This data is significant for the market, as we can see the bond market has repriced future interest rate expectations. The CME FedWatch tool is now pricing in a 50% probability that the FOMC cuts interest rates by 25bps by May of 2024, and a 20% probability that the FOMC cuts interest rates by 50bps. Altogether this means that current expectations show a 70% chance of the FOMC cutting interest rates by 25bps or more in May of 2024. As momentum has been gained in this last week’s trade, to see more strength, we would need to see a break and close above the significant 4575 level, before retesting 52-week highs. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. by Blue_Line_Futures0
SPY ANALYSIS 4HOURI expect the price to be pushed upwards to 360 given the insane momentum. The market thrives from momentum. However, I think the lower support needs to be taken to get enough liquidity for next move. I will aim to ogo long on Higher lows on the next liquidity sweep (next Week). The first resistance will be taken out and then theres room to the downside (next week). by StockplayssUpdated 110
ES1!: Week of Nov 12/13 Levels for ES1! for the week of November 12/13. Probability intra-day for Sunday night till Monday is quite bearish for both ES1! and SPY. We have a 99, slightly bullish, I am hoping for this to be removed during the overnight session into tomorrow so we can not worry about it. NQ1! has a bit more of an aggressive one but none of the 99s on any of the futures (ES1!, NQ1! and YM1!) require a threshold break. They are all within the threshold conditions, so the 99s are not a help to see which direction we break. I got a little carried away on the weekend updating some indicators and making a new one. The one I updated the most was the Directional Sentiment Line indicator. I added TPs and buy and sell signals to it, based on distance from the average. The DSL 75 has signaled a short signal a little while ago (you can see in the chart). Looking back, when it issues a sell signal on these settings, even if it continues up (like we have seen here), we do end up seeing, within a few days to a week, a sell that surpasses the sell signal. So I have marked that area as well as a key area/level to watch. As of now, bias is fairly neutral but bearish intra-day. Hoping to see this 99 removed overnight. Will update if I see anything else ES1! specific or if I take an ES1! trade. Safe trades everyone! Have a good rest of your weekend! by SteverstevesUpdated 353522
11/16 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Biden-Xi meeting concluded with a mix of agreements and tensions, impacting global market sentiments. Notably, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) showcased remarkable resilience this November, defying the typical seasonal trends. 🔍 Key Structures 4625: Upper green line, connecting January 2022 and August 2022 highs. 4556-59: Channel resistance and notable September area. 4543: A recurrent resistance level in June and July 2023. 4518: Trend line resistance from early to mid-September. 4442-45: Post-CPI rally's critical support level. 4418-25: Breakout point of the downtrend channel from August 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4507-10, 4496, 4484-86, 4476, 4462, 4452, 4442-45, 4430, 4426, 4418, 4413, 4403, 4390, 4385, 4375, 4366, 4353, 4348, 4341, 4333-35. 📈 Resistance Levels 4518, 4525, 4535, 4543, 4549, 4558-60, 4566, 4577, 4580, 4587-90, 4596, 4610, 4625, 4632, 4638-42, 4648, 4658, 4667, 4674, 4687, 4699, 4705, 4722, 4734, 4744. 📝 Trading Plan Thursday's focus is on pivotal support at 4507-10. A break below could initiate a rare red day, while holding this level might extend the bullish trend. Resistance levels to watch include 4543 and 4558-60. Trade management will be strictly algorithmic, focusing on level-to-level execution without emotional bias. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is currently in a post-trend consolidation phase, requiring traders to be adaptable. Key points for Thursday include maintaining support at 4507-10 and watching for potential resistance challenges. The long-term bullish outlook remains as long as the breakout level at 4418-24 holds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.by spytradingpro1
Longer Term Price TrendBullish tendency on the hourly. Channel within a channel and will look for a break in the trend with a break of the lower channel. by HedgehogLandingUpdated 0
S&P 500 M15 Chart PredictionsSweep Buy Stops, hit the M15 SIBI. Maybe hit the opening of the H1 -OB, then drop. News continuing the drop.Shortby Big_E_Trades_1
S&P 500 More Details PredictionSweep Buy Stops. Then Drop. I want to see News Continue the drop. Then reach for sell stops + H1 BISI + Daily BISIShortby Big_E_Trades_0
S&P 500 Targets for later today.Looking for these lows to be hit tbh. Let S&P also dip its toes in the Daily BISI + H1 BISIShortby Big_E_Trades_0
False Rally? Two scenarios. Price hits 4550-4600 and stalls in a range to either, Scenario 1, break down and rebalance the BISI FVGs formed at end of October throughout November. Scenario 2, price ranges around 4550-4600 levels before taking out 4640 highs, reaching for 4750. by DenisRisticFX1