So again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days.
I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and...
Going over the price action overnight pre-PCE looking for clues and discussing plan for the report today. we are sized down but looking to go with whichever way the market wants to go today. no feelings just reacting to zones.
Buyers came into the S&P 500 late in the session on Wednesday with the lower opening in Asia. Can buyers return to move prices higher to drive the market back to Wednesday highs and that is the expectation.
After the S&P 500 market absorbed the news about the retaliatory attack from Israel to Iran with a large moved to the downside buyers into the market. The question is is that buying sellers buying to take profits or has it gotten cheap enough that buyers are entering the market. Pay attention to Sunday nights opening and Asia's response to get guidance for Monday....
All signs point to a pullback in the market. I think JPM/AMD and some other big names might even be our leading indicator. The only real pullback target I could come up with is a 50% retracement which is fairly common in the market and within trends themselves.
The S&P 500 is in the neutral zone trade with a bullish bias. The expectation for Tuesday is for today range trading inside of Monday's range with a higher close.
The video explains it all a lot better, but basically, we are sitting with higher highs and lower lows on the trend timeframes that brought us here (30m-4hr), otherwise known as the Pac-Man symbol.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
2Hr - 5131...
My plan today for SPX levels;
My main level is 5011.
Bull Plan
If we open above 5011 and stay above 5011 we can test 5027 with 5043 and 5053.
Bear Plan
If we open below 5011 and stay below 5011 we can test 5000 with 4994 with 4988 (this is my preferred move at opening, then adjust).
Stay Frosty!
The PCE numbers coming out on Friday can set the tone for the S&P 500 not only for Friday's action but week as well. How the market will respond is 50-50.
Will sellers maintain control in the S&P 500 going into the weekend? Buyers did come into the market on Thursday but failed to hold and sellers pushed the market lower. Another possibility is sellers taking profits on Friday as we go into the weekend.
Sellers named in control in the S&P 500 on Wednesday. We are approaching levels that buyers have entered the market in the past. So, be cautious on the short side.
The price action that we saw in the S&P 500 on Tuesday has the potential for a change in market direction. The key on Wednesday would be for the market to trade above Tuesday's high and give a stronger close above that high.
going over the day's price action looking for clues to how we could have traded today better. lots of action today from a series of reports at 8:30 to auctions to earnings after hours GOOGL MSFT INTC
going over the Overnight and morning session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we should be positioning ourselves. always remember we don't want complainers and whiners in our lives. get them out.
