likely scenario on goldmonthly and weekly is in play trendline continuation setup from H4 left shoulder .... thats allShortby sleepBTC221
Gold at a Crossroad as Fed Tightening Near EndCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Micro Silver Futures ( COMEX_MINI:SIL1! ) Is gold an inflation hedge, a risk protection, a precious metal commodity, or a speculative investment? I think it is all of the above. Sometimes it could be one of them, but quite often gold puts on multiple hats, as its price could be driven by competing forces. Gold as an Inflation Hedge Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. This is supported by actual data. The US CPI Index has a base value of 100 set at years 1982-1984. Its latest reading in June 2023 is 305.1. Over the last 40 years, the average price of goods and services has tripled in the US. In other words, the purchasing power of US dollar has lost 2/3 of its value. The year-end price of spot gold in 1982-1984 stood at $447, $380, and $308, respectively. Let’s use $378, the average of the three, as a base value for comparison. On July 28th, the bullion rose to $1,956 per ounce. This is a gain of 417% in the past four decades. Over the long run, investing in gold does help preserve your wealth. Gold reached its all-time high of $2,075 in August 2020. Since then, CPI index gained 17.4% (from 259.9 to 305.1). But gold price retreated 5.7% from its record. It appears that hedging with gold does not work now. Maybe gold is wearing other hats? Gold as a Precious Metal As a commodity, gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar. Since gold is priced in dollar, a strong dollar raises the cost for foreign investors who must pay more with weakened foreign currency. This reduces the demand for gold. “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” is the general theme in global commodities market, gold included. A closely related theme is “Higher Rates, Lower Prices”. Higher interest rates and Treasury bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Unlike other commodities, gold is not consumed or used up every year. Therefore, gold mining output is not a major factor in the pricing of gold. The 1-year chart below illustrates the inverse relationship between gold and the dollar index. However, correlation does not imply causation. As a matter of fact, both gold prices and the dollar index are strongly impacted by the Fed rate hikes, as shown in the chart. Gold as a Safe Haven Investment Gold retains its value in times of both financial chaos and geopolitical crises. People flee to its relative safety when world tensions rise. During such times, gold often outperforms other investments. In the past two decades, gold price peaked during: • The 2008 financial crisis • The 2010 European debt crisis • The 2018-19 US-China trade conflict • The outbreak of COVID pandemic • The Russia-Ukraine conflict • The March 2023 bank run Gold as an Investment Class Gold investment includes physical gold, gold ETF funds, gold futures, gold options, and gold-mining company stocks. As an investment class, gold competes for investor money along with stocks, bonds, cryptos and money-market funds. Gold gained 8.3% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P (+19.8%), the Nasdaq (+44.8%) and Bitcoin (+77.8%). Investors chased higher returns and moved money out of gold. Asset rotation certainly put price pressure on gold. Outlook for Gold Price Drivers Gold wears many hats and it’s the market narrative and sentiment help define its price move. Instead of putting out a bullish or bearish view on gold, I prefer to comment on the key factors affecting gold prices. Here is my take: 1. Fed interest rate decisions • Impact: Positive • The Fed is likely near the end of its year-long rate hikes. CME FedWatch currently puts 80% odds on the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September; • While interest rates remain high, the change of rate trajectory is positive for gold. 2. US inflation rates • Impact: Mixed • CPI comes down from 9.1% to 3.0% in a year. This is a main factor supporting the Fed to pause or stop rate hikes; • Meanwhile, lower inflation risk reduces the demand for inflation hedge investment. 3. US unemployment • Impact: Positive • Nonfarm payrolls remain strong. Unemployment rate stays below 4%; • The Fed may consider one more rate hike to cool the economy. 4. US GDP • Impact: Negative • The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that US GDP grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, speeding up from 2.0% in the first quarter; • The probability of a US recession is much lower than previously expected. This give the Fed more room to combat inflation without breaking the economy. 5. US stock market • Impact: Negative • Strong stock market reduces the attractiveness in investing in gold. 6. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Impact: Prolonged conflict (neutral); Escalated tension (positive); Peace (negative) • Geopolitical crisis is the biggest driver for gold price. What’s the “Right” Price for Gold Is the current gold price too rich? very cheap? or just about right? There is probably no right answer to this question. To measure gold’s relative value, I rely on gold/silver ratio. Gold is mainly an investment instrument, while silver has a dual use of both investment and industrial material. Plugging in $1,998/ounce for gold and $24.475/ounce for silver, we get the ratio of 81.63. In a 5-year timeline, we observe that the ratio has been as high as 120 and as low as 63. Current ratio places gold at the lower part of the relative value range. (See title chart) For someone who is bullish on the gold/silver ratio, in other words, expecting the ratio to increase, he could set up a spread trade with long gold futures and short silver futures. COMEX Micro Gold Futures (MGC) contract has a notional value of 10 ounces of gold. At $1,998, each is worth $19,980. One contract requires initial margin of $830. Micro Silver Futures (SIL) contract is notional on 1,000 ounces of silver. At $24.475, each is worth $24,475. One contract requires initial margin of $1,700. Regardless which direction gold price goes, the spread trade will make money if the gold/silver ratio expands and lose money if the ratio narrows. Trading in futures comes with a leverage that would supercharge the gain if you were on the right direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Longby JimHuangChicago12
gold future analysisI suggest buying gold because we have a strong selling pressure on the us dollar .Longby ayyoubboufoul0
Long cycle on Gold confirmedGood place for buy gold right here right now. Commercials were in strong buy, while previouse down movement in gold, based on the SFTC COT reports. The technical picture is ready and trend has changed to the long side.Longby Smollet4
Short cycle on Gold has comeCommercials were in strong sales, while upward movement in gold, based on the SFTC COT reports. The technical picture is ready to break the uptrend and change the long-term trend to a downtrend right here and now. Gold will start falling soonShortby SmolletUpdated 113
LIVE TRADE IN GOLD We found a trade setup in gold .. and tried the setup in paper trade.. the indicator setup is working good.. let us wait and c.. kindly mute while watching the video..to avoid distraction.. thanks for watching.. Long04:03by shiit_tv_teameUpdated 0
GC1! Will Go Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for GC1!. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1977.1. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1988.0 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Longby SignalProvider4426
GC1! What Next? BUY! My dear friends , My technical analysis for GC1! is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1974.6 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 1988.5 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCKLongby AnabelSignals131336
gold moon testlease provide a meaningful and detailed description of your analysis and prediction. Walk us through your thought process. Put yourself in the reader’s shoes and see if you would understand the context based on what you wrote. Clearly stated profit targets and stop loss areas help clarify any trade idea.Longby sleepBTC0
learn to trade..hello all this is a trade using own indicator.. in gold.. kindly go thru each and every step.. this is a historical setup.. thanks for watching.. give a like if u like it.. Long08:24by shiit_tv_teame0
Gold Trade Idea (XAUUSD - GC)This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETCShortby SmartMoneySourceUpdated 5
Bearish GoldGOLD If break and close below 59200 level, expected down side till....... Watch it Boom💣💣 If you have any other levels, Please share your thoughts. Shortby SJ2409Updated 2215
GOLD FUTURES (SHORT)Gold futures looking bearish for a short-term drop and we can take a short for a scalp or intraday. by Khairil_Anuar113
Minor corrective end soon ?After strong up impulsive wave price corrective in flat abc after that price move up back above support from double bottom pattern TP1 = 1RR if this count is right wave counting TP2 should be easily reached Longby tofinse1
A big sell waves observedMcx gold currently on a back foot, long term trend shows a sign of sell still continues, if there was a retrace in recent days, we might ready for a deep dive.. , .... ....silver also follow soon. Shortby bigbullenter893
How To Use The "Rocket Booster" Strategy In Gold PriceThis is a video about how to use the "Rocket Booster" Strategy to find -- a good buy position in Gold -- Watch it Now To Find Out HowLong03:02by lubosi1
Gold might be ready to pop UPThe CPI numbers come out tomorrow. That could be the impetus for gold to run in to new highs in the coming weeks. What is needed is a strong close above the 50 ema as shown in the red circle to the left. Getting into this trade to go long before such a confirmation would be a mistake, IMO. We can also see that near the circle on the left the price touched the 200 ema area, and that recently happened again about 2 weeks ago. Lastly, a daily trend line has also recently been broken. It is pretty short but still significant. Good luck! (Again, the price must close strongly above the 50 ema!) PS: a measured move could send GC to around 2170 before its tops for awhile; 2170 is very speculative, just a possibility; in the possibility of more bank failures maybe in Sept, the price could go a lot higher. All conjecture.by Bry777Updated 5
td sequential buy set upm30 9 td sequential happed on previous resistance that now become support also price action from candle is show low momentum before hit support so good bet for 1.5+ RR Longby tofinse1
Bobby's homework assignment7.20.23 On this video we're taking it closer look at Tesla which is at A reversal area Looking at multiple Tools and indicators. I also Ran across 135 patterns and thought that I should introduce that to Bobby. I also talked about trend lines and how I use them. All of this will be new for Bobby and take some time to ingest... but in a month all the stuff I'm talking about will be automatic for Bobby..... including the range boxes and the way that I work with gaps. The hardest part Is starting. However the most important time is the honeymoon.... So if we can get Bobby through the next two or three weeks and he has a fairly good familiarity with the tools... that's when things will fall into place and in many ways be a lot easier. 20:01by ScottBogatin8
#Gold #XAGUSD To Test Monthly Projected Range ResistanceIn this update we review the recent price action in the Gold futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target •Past performance not indicative of future results01:18by Tickmill5
GOLD - Falling wedge pattern - 1D Currently, gold is drawing a Falling wedge pattern. It is likely to try to break through the top of the wedge soon. Let's see. Longby untoldanalysisUpdated 2
Gold As we can see, the market hasn't surpassed the high point. This suggests that we may witness a correction or accumulation, or even a reversal.by Ali_luci0