Gold Is Trapped... But I Believe a Bigger Move Lower Is ComingGold (XAUUSD)
From a technical perspective, Gold has broken its major ascending trendline and is currently trading inside a descending corrective channel. Price is sitting within a significant weekly demand zone between 4,300 and 4,600, which explains the recent stabilization. However, the broader structure still points toward weakness unless buyers can reclaim the upper supply area.
The most important level on my chart remains the unfilled weekly Fair Value Gap around 4,130–4,180. Markets have a tendency to revisit these inefficiencies, especially when supported by bearish order flow and weak seasonal patterns.
Looking at the latest COT report, Non-Commercial traders still maintain a strong net-long exposure. However, Open Interest declined significantly, suggesting profit-taking rather than fresh institutional accumulation. This tells me that while the long-term trend remains constructive, short-term upside momentum is fading.
Retail positioning adds another layer to the analysis. Currently, around 65% of traders are holding long positions. From a contrarian perspective, this often supports the continuation of downside pressure as liquidity remains concentrated below current prices.
Seasonality also favors the bears. Historically, June has been one of the weakest months for Gold, with negative average performance across most historical datasets.
My preferred scenario is a corrective bounce toward the 4,450–4,550 area, followed by renewed selling pressure targeting the weekly Fair Value Gap around 4,200.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 4,600 – 4,800 – 5,000
• Support: 4,300 – 4,200 – 4,000
Long
