Phil_Blue_Line

Phil_Blue_Line

Precious Metals have softened recently after continued liquidation, stop-loss selling, and de-grossing pushed Gold futures down to a value zone of $2300/oz on the June futures contract. Since then, bargain hunters have stepped in, driving futures $30 off their lows. The potential for a strong recovery in gold is on the horizon, especially if miners strengthen and...

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Technical Momentum Strengthens Gold Futures hit an all-time high in 2024 at $2,448 on the June futures contract on April 12. Futures remain firmly above the rising 50-day Moving average at $2,184 and well above the 200-day Moving Average at $2,072. The technical perspective shows momentum studies accelerating, with the 9-day moving average gaining momentum above...

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Technical Momentum Weakens Crude Oil futures have stalled after rising in 2024 after trading at the upper price band of $88/barrel and lower price band of $84/barrel. The technical perspective shows momentum studies correcting from overbought territories, with the 9-day moving average stalling above 18-day. DMI + is narrowing in on DMI -, indicating that the...

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The commodities space is thriving thanks to the positive influence of geopolitics, central bank buying, a surge in manufacturing, and a robust economy. These factors have ignited a widespread rally in the precious metals space, painting a promising picture for investors and traders. Today, we are eagerly awaiting the release of the March CPI print, a crucial...

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How will you capitalize when Gold is up $500 on a Sunday night? I am not looking for an answer; we futures traders think about it. Gold futures this week reached new all-time highs as anxiety surrounding an escalation between Israel and Iran (OPEC member) pushed the CRB index to its highest level since October as the raw materials basket entered the new bullish...

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One of the most widely discussed precious metals that has been a sleeper all year (-2.5 %) looks like it is finally waking up again. Silver futures have oftentimes been at the forefront of controversy after multiple failed short squeezes and a series of lower highs and lower lows. Traders often remember the good old days when prices exploded to $50 only to see...

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After a week of holiday trading volume, weakness in the U.S. Dollar continued after deteriorating economic data opened the door for the Fed's first interest rate cut in 2024. As of this writing, the first interest rate cut has a 23% chance in March 2024 and has pressured 10-year Treasury yields from a cycle high of 5.05% on October 23rd down to the November low of...

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The tides have turned this week for Precious Metals after a stunning collapse in CPI, followed by a series of weaker economic data points. Fed fund futures are questioning the Federal Reserve's hard stance. Currently, the latest CME FedWatch tool indicates a 2% chance for the first interest rate cut in January, followed by a 35% chance in March and a 65% chance in...

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If you read last week's post, "Is the Top in on Gold?," you will know I was preparing for a correction, which played out perfectly. Gold futures could work their way lower from here, given the amount of premium pumped into the market from the October 6th lows until the October 27th highs (+ $196.20). The Hezbollah leader already discredited widespread escalation...

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After punching through $2000/oz for the first time since July, Gold and Silver have found themselves in a peculiar position, suddenly competing with the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Perhaps the $175/oz rally over the past three weeks left investors "itching" to find the next "quick buck." While Bitcoin has proven a viable asset class, retail investors and Central...

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Technical Momentum Strengthens Crude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market...

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Gold futures have risen since mid-August, with $1900 on the downside and $1975 on the upside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising to overbought territories, indicating this may be the beginning of the next bull market. DMI + crossed back above DMI - and the 8-day moving average looks set to recapture the 34-day moving average. Weaker Economic...

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August is officially in the books, and other than Platinum rising $100 from $885 to $985, there was little to get excited about. Precious Metals were flat, where hot economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve supported the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields, further pressuring prices. As the month went on, softer prints from Consumer Confidence, ADP, GDP, and Jolts...

Phil_Blue_Line

Crude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market we have seen since July may...

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While the concerns of a Global Recession are not entirely out of the question, the supportive economic activity we have seen in the U.S. should indicate that the Fed may be closer to achieving its soft landing goals. Construction and housing remain robust where mined resources such as copper are in peak demand. Asia and India have also seen a pick-up in activity...

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It was an impressive week for commodities across the board, with everything from Precious Metals and Energies to Agricultural markets grabbing headlines. Inflation remains worrysome During the Pro-Farmer Crop tour, excessive heat across the Mid-West triggered volatility as farmers asked themselves, "How much heat can this crop handle?" You may ask yourself...

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I know it's mid-August, but it indeed feels like Ground Hog Day with Precious Metals trapped on a merry-go-round of negativity where stronger economic data in the U.S. reaffirms the Fed's "higher for longer" theme that strengthens the U.S. Dollar and pushes yields higher. Then in the overnight sessions, we get a series of weak Asian data where calls for China to...

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It was another challenging week for Precious Metals, with Gold futures trading back near one-month lows. At the same time, it is hard to believe that with a downtick in headline inflation data and an uptick in initial claims, Gold cannot sustain a rally. Realistically Thursday's data print should have marked the "bottom," and August's three-week seasonal bull...