After a week of holiday trading volume, weakness in the U.S. Dollar continued after deteriorating economic data opened the door for the Fed's first interest rate cut in 2024. As of this writing, the first interest rate cut has a 23% chance in March 2024 and has pressured 10-year Treasury yields from a cycle high of 5.05% on October 23rd down to the November low of 4.36%. That selloff has sparked renewed interest in the bullion, where ETF inflows have picked up after hitting their lowest level since 2020. While the conflict in the Middle East has been subsiding, geopolitical uncertainties should underpin prices in the long term.
Taking it to the Charts
Technically, it was a constructive week for Gold, with prices consolidating above the 200 DMA ($1982) and looking to challenge recent resistance at $2020. Any breach above should trigger the next wave of short covering followed by fresh buying. Momentum studies are turning higher, with stochastics rising from oversold territory, followed by the MACD histogram, which is also beginning to rise. Remember that every bull market starts with a short-covering rally.
Where is my line in the sand?
Pocket support for Gold is between $1955 and the 50 DMA at $1944, where any close below this level could spark "panic" liquidation. We see value in adding to Gold positions near the 200 DMA.
www.tradingview.com/cme/
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Taking it to the Charts
Technically, it was a constructive week for Gold, with prices consolidating above the 200 DMA ($1982) and looking to challenge recent resistance at $2020. Any breach above should trigger the next wave of short covering followed by fresh buying. Momentum studies are turning higher, with stochastics rising from oversold territory, followed by the MACD histogram, which is also beginning to rise. Remember that every bull market starts with a short-covering rally.
Where is my line in the sand?
Pocket support for Gold is between $1955 and the 50 DMA at $1944, where any close below this level could spark "panic" liquidation. We see value in adding to Gold positions near the 200 DMA.
www.tradingview.com/cme/
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.