Trend breakout to the down side.Gold has been trading on a uptrend for a while on the H4 timeframe. It recently broke out to start a down trend. Currently it is trading under resistance which became a support area and heading towards 2,294.
MGCM2024 trade ideas
Gold Continues Higher . . . Look for Small PullbackWhere are we today? We are in a rising wedge . . . and there is a risk that gold eventually breaks this primary trend levels . . . but, if past is prologue, then we should see a 15 minute retracement into our next buy at the 4 hour HWB long setup. . . around 2391-2393.6 area.
Gold versus SilverGold versus silver hitting a massive support area at 75.
This is why silver's ascent is halting versus gold.
#gold #silver
GOLD analysis Gold began the week with a downward trend but has seen some recovery. This movement is influenced by the weakening US Dollar, driven by disappointing PMI data that indicates a slowdown in private sector growth. Additionally, a lower-than-expected GDP growth rate and persistent inflationary pressures have contributed to gold's recent price movements.
Sentiment analysis shows mixed signals with some expecting continued consolidation within the $2,400-$2,450 range, while others foresee potential upward movement towards $2,500 as economic conditions evolve.
GC1!_Short-Term TrendGold could get one more poke into the green box extension area noted on the chart, but as price continuously tries to confuse us, I actually think a c wave subdivision of the Minuette (v) Ending Diagonal is likely and warranted, here. I have zoomed out to show some fib confluence at the top end, some of which is already set, and some of which is speculative. I believe these waves, though, are the parameters of the completion of Minor wave C of Intermediate (5).
Selling is done in GOLD?2258 support held, but 2340 is now offering resistance. We have Buyers pushing the prices up for sure, see the GREEN UMVD started last week. We have gREEN Bars but TrapZOne is still RED>
Good Evening and I hope you are well.gold futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320.
comment: Market got it’s 2450 and some, formed a higher high double top and sold off for 127 points. We are right at the lower bull channel trend line and it’s a higher low. Bad place to trade or make predictions. I do think 2454 is a credible high for a decade.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2290 - 2454
bull case: Bulls met all targets above imo and had their retest and the double top. They need to keep this above 2330 to not risk an accelerated selling. Above 2350 would be better to trade back inside the bull channel again. It’s still a small pull-back on the weekly chart and the weekly 20ema is around 2250, that’s far away. I expect bulls to get a pull-back here to at least the daily 20ema at 2360 or the breakout price 2380.
bear case: Bears printed 2 big consecutive bear bars last week and the selling was strong enough to get a second leg. Measured move would bring us right to 2200, so naturally I drew a nice channel for you. R:R here is clearly on the short side. Bears need to keep it below 2380 and make lower lows below 2285. Will write an update on Gold in my Monday after hours.
outlook last week: “Small pull-back before another test of 2448 (typo said 2348) or higher. Invalid below 2370.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2417 and now we are at 2334. Thought small pull-back and then gave an update on Monday that I entered swing short at 2429 and gave that for free in my after hour update. That positions is now 950 ticks in profit. Hope you made some.
short term: Sideways to up - Expecting a pull-back to 2360/2380 where the next move is decided. I prefer a second leg down, after the pull-back, which then transforms into a bear trend down to 2200.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: Still holding some shorts since 2429. SL is 2352.
Chart update: Added new preferred bear channel
Gold shock correction nears endMarket participants will also be closely watching comments from Fed officials next week. The chance that the Fed will adjust policy in September remains slightly above 50%, according to data from the CME Fed Watch Tool. Market positioning suggests the dollar could face selling pressure if Fed policymakers leave the door open to a rate cut in September.
On the other hand, if Fed officials favor a rate cut closer to the end of the year, the U.S. dollar may hold its ground, making it difficult for gold to gain traction. However, policymakers still have several inflation and employment data to assess before September, and they may not send any clear signals on the timing of a policy shift. The market will also see appearances from several regional Fed presidents. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina. New York Fed President Williams will speak at a conference in California; Fed Governor Cook will speak in Washington, D.C., and Chicago Fed President Goolsby will speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota.
In terms of short-term rhythm, looking at the market price in four hours, the pressure position is obviously at the integer mark of 2,400 US dollars, and there is no physical closing line above 2,400 US dollars. At best, it was suppressed by a virtual break of $2,400. However, as the market price hit the $2,400 mark many times and failed to form an effective breakthrough, it then adjusted downward and corrected, which is what we often talk about accumulating strength. If US$2,400 to US$2,292 is regarded as the first wave downward revision, then US$2,252 to US$2,282 is the third wave downward revision. The correction decline is not a decline in the main trend, and the maximum correction wave does not exceed three waves. And the decline in each wave will be compressed. This wave, which is the third wave correction, will be based on the high point of $2327. Combined with the double bottom position of 2267, there is a high probability that the correction will be completed at the $2267 line. So that means the area around $2,267 is what we think is the correction low.
In terms of specific layout, the third wave of downward revision has not yet completed, and next week it is still necessary to make a high-altitude pullback layout, and then retrace $2,267 before making a backhand. At the beginning of the week, focus on 2310 to suppress the first short-selling layout. Below, focus on the 2292, 2282 and 2267 positions. Focus on the first-line opportunity of touching 2267, and start to place long orders on the backhand. When the correction is completed, the bulls will return! Taken together, in terms of short-term gold operation ideas next week, Jin Shengfu recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 2308-2310 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term will focus on the 2265-2267 first-line support. All friends must keep up. Rhythm. It is necessary to control positions and stop loss issues, set stop losses strictly, and never resist orders. The recent market turmoil has been relatively large, and opportunities and risks coexist. Control risks and gain profits.
GOLD FUTURES : OUTLOOK This is the same idea. as previously posted but on the futures chart. It seems price is already at our entry on the futures contract chart.
"May fortune attend thee, and thy trade prosper." .......L2Earned
Gold - Next Move Should Be UpThe fibs and structure seem to be aligned and complete... I think the wave down is complete, and we should see ABC or a 1-2 up... once that structure develops we can start to project the movement.
2024-05-22 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Another round of all time highs but bears printed some bigger bear bars on higher volume but in the overall picture it’s still a trading range around the all time highs for stock indexes. To have any meaning, bears would need strong follow through tomorrow and make meaningful lower lows and test the daily 20ema.
Commodities actually can have a red day. What a time to be alive. Copper sold off for almost 6% and Gold printed a big bear bar too, exciting.
NVIDIA: The stock that saves the market because AI is the reason no asset valuation metric is important anymore. Stock hit 997.9 after hours and my best guess is that most institutions will use this spike as a gift to take more profits. Will see about that in the next 4 weeks.
Gold
comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now.
current market cycle: Small bear trend in bigger trading range 2300-2454
key levels: 2300 - 2450
bull case: Daily 20ema is at 2370, so bulls still closed above it and that means the market is still mostly bullish. Since we printed another ath on Monday, some pull-back was expected. Bulls would like to keep it above 2380 because it’s the most recent support under 2400. They want a big pull-back to make bears question the strength of the selling. Their first target is 2400 and then a breakout of the bear channel. Invalid below 2375.
bear case: Bears got consecutive bear bars on the daily chart. They also see the formed channel and they want to keep the pull-back sideways and as neutral as it gets before a second leg down. My preferred target for the pull-back is at least 2400 inside the drawn channel. It could be that my channel is wrong and we see a faster and steeper drop to 2350 but i highly doubt that. Ultimately, bears want 2300 again soon. I watch the 15m and 1h 20ema closely for shorts. My swing position is very green.
short term: Sideways to up. Had big down today, now a pull-back is expected. Please watch my chart. Invalid below 2372.
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 2429 on Tuesday - target 2375, sl 2390. Took 25% off at 2380. +480 so far.
trade of the day: Strong selling with follow through below 2400, given that market could not trade above the 1h 20ema, should have been short since 2414 or once we broke 2400.
Buy June gold at 2411 limit, stop at 2376, tgt openBuy June gold at 2411 limit, stop at 2376, tgt open
Gold analysisGold formed cup and handle pattern in 4Hr frame ...waiting for a breakout for upside .....above 73000......targets 73500,74000 sl 500 points .do your own analysis before investing.
GOLD Price Stability Amid Rising Global TensionsOn Tuesday, the price of gold stabilized as mounting geopolitical tensions spurred demand for the safe-haven asset.
Escalating protests against Israel’s presence in Gaza, Russia’s initiation of a new conflict in Ukraine, and concerns regarding potential disruptions in global trade have heightened the perception of geopolitical risk.
The decision by BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the US Dollar for international trade transactions has bolstered interest in gold as an alternative. Consequently, there has been a notable increase in non-Western central banks' demand for gold, accompanied by a corresponding decrease in US Dollar reserves.
Gold is being considered as a viable substitute for the US Dollar as a secure store of value in international trade agreements involving nations with volatile domestic currencies, as per insights from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based advisory service.
From a technical standpoint, analysis of the H4 timeframe reveals a divergence in the cumulative delta, with the preceding candle exhibiting a negative cumulative delta while the current candle shows a positive delta. The previous candle effectively absorbed all inefficiency orders from sellers, forming an absorption candle characterized by a long spike, while the current candle is endeavoring to elevate buyer volume. There is potential for the current candle to retest the previous candle's point of control (POC) to attract new buyers at a discounted rate. Our strategy revolves around a long setup with a target aimed at the previous fair value area.
📉 Gold Futures Parabolic RiseThe black curved line on the chart is called a "parabola," as in "parabolic rise."
A parabolic rise tends to lead to a very strong correction.
The only way to sustained a parabolic rise is... Well, it is impossible, the Gold market fluctuates between up and down.
The peak, ATH, happened on the 8-April weekly session.
This session ended with a long upper shadow followed by a local lower high.
The whole chart structure has bearish potential.
I am here trying to predict a reversal, which is something very hard to do.
In order to predict a change of trend, we always have to jump in when things are not looking the best.
By the time the signals are clear and confirmed, Gold will be trading at $2,300 or below $2,250. I personally wouldn't wait for those.
➖ Some people trade the breakout with low risk;
➖ Some people trade before the breakout with a tight stop-loss and still very low risk but a higher potential for reward.
What you choose, is up to you.
My mission is to alert of the move before it comes.
After the bearish comes a bullish wave.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
GoldThis not a trading signal, this is just my opinion and if you copy my trade the risk is on you.
Gold on the daily chart , is @ resistance retesting the previous highs before pulling back to the support levels around $2,353 therefore im entering 2 trades ( one Selling to the support level, and other is ( Buying to continue with the up trend aiming for newer high.
Gold remains bearishThe strong performance of the U.S. ADP employment data in April provided new challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the reaction of the gold market is particularly worthy of attention. After the data was released, gold fell back 4 US dollars in the short term and then rebounded. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, far exceeding the expected 175,000, showing the strength of the labor market. Salary growth slowed: Salary growth for those who changed jobs fell from 10.1% to 9.3% year-on-year. Although it is still higher than the level at the beginning of the year, it shows a certain slowing trend.
Against the backdrop of strong ADP employment data, the Fed's monetary policy decisions have become more complicated. The gold market will pay close attention to the Fed's next moves, as these decisions will directly affect gold's safe-haven demand and investment value. Investors should remain vigilant during this critical period and carefully evaluate market dynamics.
The market is in a weak position, with pressure at 2306 and 2315. Therefore, if you want to short during the day, you must first pay attention to whether 2300 breaks. If 2300 does not break, gold will go short under such extremely weak conditions. Look at the trend point below at 2250. If 2300 breaks and the strength changes, this wave can still rise to 2315 and 2330 highs.
5/12 | $GCWas expecting a dip, however we ripped out of the bull flag. New path of interest will be taking new highs before a buyable dip. That's where I will be interested in playing again.
GOLD Futures: H4 Footprint Insights and Daily Chart DynamicsGold Futures Footprint Analysis on the H4 Timeframe reveals an intriguing market dynamic. Monday's opening saw a bearish candle, characterized by a spike that retraced to the previous Point of Control (POC) volume of the preceding candle. This retracement occurred concurrently with a block of previous bullish orders (513+535), suggesting a potential area of resistance. Despite the presence of sellers, there appears to be a notable imbalance favoring buyers, indicating underlying support for a price increase.
Although the Delta reflects a bearish sentiment, the sellers' efforts do not seem to exert a significant downward pressure on price movement. This phenomenon aligns with a classic interpretation of price action in CFD trading, commonly referred to as a "retest."
Zooming out to the daily chart, we observe that buyer volume slightly surpasses that of sellers, accompanied by a lower Delta compared to the previous candle. This discrepancy implies that a relatively small effort from buyers may yield significant results. Moreover, the POC on the daily chart currently resides on the upper side of the candle, indicating that the majority of transactions or market battles are occurring at higher price levels. This observation further strengthens the case for a bullish continuation.
In summary, the Footprint Analysis highlights a nuanced interplay between buyers and sellers in the Gold Futures market. Despite initial bearish signals, the presence of buyer imbalance and strategic positioning on the daily chart suggest a potential bullish momentum continuation. Traders may consider these insights when formulating their trading strategies.
Daily Footprint Analysis
Gold fluctuates repeatedly in downward trendTraders see a 64% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates will make holding non-yielding gold more attractive. Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April, while year-on-year wage growth fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years. New York Fed President Williams said on Monday that the Fed will lower its interest rate target at an undetermined point. Investors are paying close attention to the latest developments in the conflict in the Middle East. Palestinian militant group Hamas agreed on Monday to a Gaza ceasefire proposal put forward by mediators, but Israel said the conditions did not meet its demands and continued its strikes in Rafah while planning to continue negotiations to reach an agreement. The gold market continues to face significant upward pressure as it is used to protect wealth from devaluation as well as global geopolitical issues.
Gold technical analysis: Gold prices maintained an upward trend on Monday. In early trading, the price fell back to the 2291 line and rebounded. Asian, European and American markets continued to fluctuate and rise, reaching a maximum of 2332 and closing at 2324. The price fluctuates in the range of 2335-2277. Today, continue to focus on the upper resistance 2332-2338 and the lower support 2281-2277. The short defensive position is currently at the 2352 line. Only by breaking through and stabilizing the 2352 line can the end of this downward trend be confirmed.
In terms of gold's short-term operation today, it is recommended to go short on rebounds and long on callbacks. The upper short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 2330-2332, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2281-2277 first-line support.
2024-05-20 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Gold
comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2450
bull case: Bulls have all arguments on their side, as long as the bull trend lines are intact and they trade far above the daily 20ema. . They probably want another retest 2450 tomorrow and some higher to make the bears who sold 2450 today, cover. Obvious target above 2450 is 2500, invalid below 2400.
bear case: Bears sold-off for 40 points from the highs but the follow through was not good enough. I think the lower high is reasonable here to expect a bigger second leg down to 2375. So right now they need to keep this a lower high and break the first bull trend line around 2420 for a test of 2400. Invalid above 2445.
short term: Sideways, then down - Invalid above 2443
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 2429 for target 2375, sl 2443
trade of the day: Short 2450 - rejection was good enough and bears got follow through
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Morning and I hope you are well.
This is my weekly outlook, written yesterday evening. So market already made the new ath and now I wait to see if they want to squeeze higher or we hit a hard wall for big players to continue to unload.
gold futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: 2285 was the low last Friday and this week held above it and my two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick for the A and the B leg and C was only short 20 points. So I gave you perfect 50 points up, 20 points down and another 50 points up. Hope you made some. Bulls are in clear control and until bears break strongly below 2300 again, we are on our way to retest 2448.
comment: 3 clear pushes up and still not near 2450, which is not as bullish as it could be but it’s still only going up so naturally I look for longs. Market probably will not stop until we print 2445 or 2450 but the recent pull-backs went on long and deep enough for me to think the upside is probably limited.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2290 - 2450
bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320
bear case: All highs in this bull wedge were sold and we already had 3 clear pushes up. Bears will probably get a pull-back on Monday and then market has to decide if it want’s another try at 2450 or higher. First bear target is a retest of the breakout 2400 and then the 4h 20ema around 2390.
outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2375 and now we are at 2417. No opinion last week.
short term: Small pull-back before another test of 2348 or higher. Invalid below 2370.
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
Chart update: Removed bear flag. Added bull wedge.
58% win rate Python trend follow trade set upThis trade set up call SNRC that use previous resistance as support when price break above and comeback to retest
I backtesting this trade set up with Python using 720 day price history data
so you can see the optimization heat map
this is 58% win rate with 2RR trade set up
