Dollar looking like its getting ready for correction. Reached my trendline resistant and now expecting it to make a correction after we've had been on an impulsive move for long.Shortby iamratsikana1
Macro Trader: The Smile Continues To Work For The DollarThe dollar remains on the front foot, with the buck benefitting from haven flows amid rising geopolitical risk, as well as the continued outperformance of the US economy; both being factors which point to further upside remaining on the cards. The greenback has continued to gain ground of late, with the USD rallying to fresh YTD highs against a basket of peers - per both the dollar index (DXY), and Bloomberg’s broader measure (BBDXY). The move comes amid the persistence of the US exceptionalism narrative that has driven the G10 FX market for much of the year, as well as the emergence of another traditionally USD supportive factor; namely, rising geopolitical risk, and a subsequent surge in demand for safe havens as participants seek shelter. Unsurprisingly, this rise in risk as Middle East tensions appear to escalate, after Iran’s weekend attack on Israel, and as markets brace for potential retaliation, has seen volatility rise across the board. In the FX space, in particular, JPMorgan’s gauge of FX implied volatility, on both a global and a G7 basis, has risen to its highest since early-February. Perhaps the easiest way to visualise the factors behind USD’s recent strong performance is to return to a familiar concept - the so-called ‘dollar smile’. This theorises that the dollar tends to appreciate in two environments; when global risk aversion takes hold; or, when the US economy outperforms peers, and the dollar subsequently benefits from a yield advantage. On the former, risk appetite is clearly on relatively shaky ground at present. Gold continues to print fresh record highs in an almost daily basis, apparently standing as the portfolio hedge du jour for most participants. Meanwhile, stocks have slipped over recent weeks, with the S&P closing on Monday below its 50-day MA for the first time since last November, while also notching a 2-day drop of over 2.6%, the most in over a year. I would argue, however, that with economic growth still strong, earnings resilient, and the central bank ‘put’ still alive & well, the path of least resistance over the medium-term should continue to lead higher. Meanwhile, on the matter of US outperformance, it is clear that the economy is diverging significantly from DM peers. This is particularly true of economic growth, with GDP growth having exceeded 2% on an annualised quarterly basis for the past six quarters in a row, as momentum remains anaemic elsewhere, particularly in Europe where risks also remain tilted to the downside. It is also the case when one examines the inflation outlook. Last week’s CPI report reiterated the stubborn and sticky nature of price pressures within the US economy, with headline prices rising by an unexpectedly strong 3.5% YoY, in an energy-driven re-acceleration from a month prior, while core CPI remained unchanged at 3.8% YoY. This is in sharp contrast to inflation developments elsewhere, with disinflationary progress towards central banks’ 2% targets proving substantially quicker than had been expected. In turn, this is helping to tilt the balance of risks for the Fed outlook, and that of other G10 central banks, in opposite directions. If one were to look simply at incoming Stateside data, one would probably question the need for cuts at all, with growth resilient, inflation sticky, and the labour market incredibly tight. In many ways, the primary reason why rate cuts are being discussed, is simply because Powell & Co. have told us that they plan to cut as the year progresses. Naturally, markets have hawkishly repriced the Fed outlook of late, now pencilling in the first cut for September, and less than 50bp of easing this year - around a third of what was priced at the turn of the year! On the other hand, data elsewhere suggests that cuts are coming much sooner, and likely to a much greater degree. The SNB, for instance, have already kicked off their own easing cycle, having delivered a 25bp cut in March, with Swiss inflation having reached the bottom of the target band. Meanwhile, the Riksbank look set to cut at the next meeting in May, and the ECB have all-but-confirmed that the first cut will come in June. The BoE also seem likely to deliver the first cut of the cycle early in the summer, with joblessness in the UK now standing at a 6-month high, and inflation set to kiss the 2% target during the spring. While the antipodean central banks - the RBA & RBNZ - are likely to wait until August to follow suit, risks here are also skewed in a dovish direction. Hence, while recent geopolitical developments may have given the greenback a further leg higher, dollar demand should persist even once the recent strife begins to fade from the minds of market participants, with the greenback’s yield advantage, and favourable FOMC policy divergence, set to provide continued support. Certainly, this is the message that derivatives are currently sending. 3-month, 25-delta risk reversals, in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, both trade to their most negative since November 2023, implying puts trading at the greatest premium to calls since that time, and thus the most bullish USD sentiment since late last year. In summary, then, while the USD has already gained around 5% against a basket of peers this year, and trades in the green against all G10 peers, this strong upside momentum looks set to have considerably more room to run.by Pepperstone9
DXY Wave countDXY completed a five-wave decline on the daily chart and is now in an ABC corrective phase upward. The initial target for wave C is the 100% extension of A=C at 108.489. Currently, wave-3 of wave-C is unfolding and nearing completion, soon to be followed by a downward wave-4. This wave-4 could last several weeks, during which our 1-2 setups for alternative assets might complete before DXY's wave-5 ascends. This rise could prompt a downward wave-4 in the 1-2 setups for alts.by WaveFibs3
Levels discussed during Livestream 16 April 16th April DXY: Consolidate along 106.30 or retrace down to 106.10. Look for bounce to test 106.55 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5910 SL 15 TP 35 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6430 SL 20 TP 70 USDJPY: Sell ORDER 154.55 SL 30 TP 130 (Intervention position) GBPUSD: Look for reaction at 1.2380 if support breaks, Sell 1.2360 SL 30 TP 90 EURUSD: Sell 1.0645 SL 35 TP 105 USDCHF: Buy 0.9170 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Buy 1.3790 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Retrace to 2350-2330 range or 2300, look for bounce, to retest 2400by JinDao_Tai5
Dollar Index Retracement Overall Trend is Bullish. We tend To buy Dollar In Long and mid term. swing traders are buyers of every rational buy signal. we are not here to go against the trend , we embrace the trend. But in the Mean Time we might have some counter trend opportunities . So I probably enter few small short positions.by farsi_fx3
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this presentation, we conduct an in-depth examination of the technical aspects related to the DXY. Our evaluation uncovers a possible trading prospect. We conduct a detailed review of the prevailing price movements, examine the market's framework with precision, and take into account the forces at play in the market. Given the advantageous circumstances, we pinpoint a prospective point of entry. Nonetheless, it is imperative to emphasize the importance of applying strong risk management measures. It is important to remember that the content of this video is intended solely for educational purposes and is not to be interpreted as investment advice. 07:12by tradingwithanthonyUpdated 3
DXY | APR 15 2024We might get weakness here, simply due to the fact how technically overextended the pair is. Fundamentally, we are anticipating rate cuts, so that helps in forming the bias. Monitoring $105.95 as of now for further confluences, as it will help me form an idea on the rest of the pairs in the Dollar basket.Shortby marketswzrd6
Emerging Markets Struggle as the Mighty Dollar FlexesThe recent strength of the US dollar is posing a significant challenge for emerging markets around the world. Their currencies are weakening, creating a ripple effect across their economies. This article explores the reasons behind the dollar's dominance, the impact on emerging markets, and potential policy responses. A Rising Dollar: The Driving Forces The US dollar has been on a tear in recent months, appreciating against most major currencies. This surge can be attributed to several factors, including: • US Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation are attracting investors seeking higher returns on dollar-denominated assets. This increased demand strengthens the dollar. • Global Economic Uncertainty: As concerns about a global economic slowdown grow, investors flock to the perceived safety of the US dollar, seen as a safe haven asset during times of turmoil. • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions between the US and China are further fueling risk aversion, pushing investors towards the dollar. Emerging Markets Under Pressure The rise of the US dollar presents a major headache for emerging markets. Weakening local currencies lead to several problems: • Imported Inflation: When the local currency weakens, the cost of imported goods rises. This can exacerbate inflation in emerging markets, which are already grappling with rising prices due to global supply chain disruptions. • Debt Burden: Many emerging market economies have significant dollar-denominated debt. A weaker local currency increases the cost of servicing this debt, putting a strain on government finances. • Capital Flight: The strengthening dollar can trigger capital outflows from emerging markets as investors seek better returns elsewhere. This can lead to currency depreciation and hinder economic growth. Policy Responses: Verbal Intervention and Beyond Emerging markets are not sitting idly by as their currencies weaken. Several are exploring policy options to counter the dollar's might: • Verbal Intervention: Central banks in some emerging markets, like Malaysia, have resorted to verbal intervention, signaling their commitment to supporting their currencies. However, this approach has limited long-term effectiveness. • Interest Rate Hikes: Some central banks, such as Brazil, are considering raising interest rates to attract capital inflows and stabilize their currencies. However, this risks slowing down economic growth. • Currency Intervention: Central banks may intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars and buying local currency to prop it up. This approach can be expensive and depletes foreign exchange reserves. JPMorgan and ANZ Weigh In: The Need for More Tools Financial institutions are also analyzing the situation. JPMorgan Asset Management suggests that more verbal intervention may be necessary from emerging markets to manage volatility. However, analysts at ANZ bank believe that China, a major emerging market with significant influence, may need to deploy a wider range of tools, potentially including capital controls, to limit the depreciation of its currency, the yuan. Looking Ahead: A Delicate Balancing Act The coming months will be critical for emerging markets. Central banks face a delicate balancing act, trying to tame inflation without stifling economic growth. The strength of the US dollar will be a major factor influencing their decisions. The ability of emerging markets to navigate this challenging environment will have a significant impact on the global economic outlook. Longby bryandowningqln0
The DXY's Reach: Beyond Traditional MarketsThe DXY, though primarily impacting foreign exchange (forex) markets, casts a long shadow across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Here's how a strong dollar (rising DXY) and a weak dollar (falling DXY) can influence these markets: Foreign Investment in Crypto: A strong dollar can make cryptocurrency investments less attractive to foreign investors for similar reasons as traditional stocks and bonds. They would need to exchange more of their local currency for dollars to buy cryptocurrencies, increasing their investment costs. Additionally, if the dollar appreciates significantly, potential returns from crypto investments, when converted back to their home currency, might become less appealing. Risk Appetite and the "Safe Haven" Status: The dollar is often seen as a safe haven during periods of economic uncertainty. When the global economic outlook weakens, investors might flock to the dollar, pulling investments out of riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. This can lead to a decline in cryptocurrency prices as demand wanes. Conversely, a weak dollar might indicate a stronger global economic climate, potentially boosting risk appetite and leading investors to allocate more funds towards cryptocurrencies, driving their prices up. Correlation with Traditional Markets: The cryptocurrency market, though evolving its own dynamics, still exhibits some correlation with traditional markets. If a strong dollar weakens the stock market, it might indirectly impact cryptocurrencies as well, as investor sentiment can influence both asset classes. However, the correlation between crypto and traditional markets is not always perfect and can fluctuate. Bitcoin: A Special Case? Bitcoin, the most established cryptocurrency, often presents a unique case. While a strong dollar can dampen investor interest and potentially lead to a price decline, some view Bitcoin itself as a hedge against fiat currencies like the US dollar. The limited supply of Bitcoin, unlike the potentially infinite supply of the dollar, is seen as an advantage by some investors seeking protection against inflation. However, Bitcoin's price is still susceptible to broader market forces and investor sentiment, making it vulnerable to fluctuations alongside the DXY. Beyond the DXY: A Holistic View It's important to remember that the DXY is just one piece of the puzzle. Several other factors can influence cryptocurrency prices: Regulations: Government regulations and policies surrounding cryptocurrencies can significantly impact their market performance. News and Events: Major news events related to hacks, security breaches, or mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies can trigger price movements. Technological Advancements: Developments within the blockchain technology and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem can influence investor sentiment and market movements. The Takeaway: The DXY undeniably plays a role in shaping the cryptocurrency market landscape. However, its influence is intertwined with various other factors. By understanding how the DXY interacts with traditional markets, investor risk appetite, and the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies, you can gain a more comprehensive perspective on potential price movements. Remember, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and technical analysis of the DXY should be used in conjunction with other factors to make informed investment decisions. Educationby ParabolicPUpdated 1
Triangle broken DXY on it's way up! Broken triangle and the stabilisation of war in ME is making dollar strongerLongby Voldernicus0
DXY Rally Amid Geopolitical StrainsThe DXY finds itself at a juncture, rallying amidst mixed economic cues and rising global tensions. Today's retail sales figures, dipping into the red, contrast with the index's upward trajectory, suggesting an intriguing divergence from the expected market reaction to domestic economic indicators. Technical analysis: The DXY closed above the 106.00 mark, establishing new ground. This comes after a bullish leap, breaching past the previous consolidation area marked by the red line. The price action is somewhat at odds with the weaker retail data, hinting that the market may be weighing other factors more heavily, such as the ongoing conflict affecting sentiment. While the index has found support at 105.900, the upper bound of 106.200 could present a formidable resistance. Breaking through could usher in a continuation of the rally, whereas a retreat from this level might signal a retest of the support zone. Our position: In the face of the current market volatility, spurred by international conflict and unexpected economic data, our stance is one of prudence. We’re looking at these levels: a hold above 106.200 could prompt a bullish strategy, targeting higher resistance points. On the flip side, a bearish reversal, influenced by the broader economic picture or escalating geopolitical tensions, could see us exploring shorts, particularly if the DXY retreats from its recent peak. Trade considerations: As the market digests the impacts of the retail sales report and ongoing international conflicts, we’re keeping a keen eye on the DXY’s response to these resistance levels and expecting the dollar to push further as inflation came in hotter than expected.Longby TradingFXio2
DXY WILL FALL FROM 107$ ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level. hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below. DisclaimerShortby bullstraders72
DXY Index New Week MovePair : DXY INDEX Description : Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves Break of Structure RSI - Divergence Fibonacci Level - 78.60%by ForexDetective10
Major clues in USD indicate Bear market Late summer/ early fallHi guys. When trading its always important to learn/educate to find an edge on the markets. There are so many charts you can access to analyze/compare, etc. Its known that many ticker symbols can be used in certain ways to help understand markets in a deeper way. The DXY or U.S. Dollar Index is an asset that i use to assess Risk mentality. So keeping it simple: If dollar RISES -> it indicates a RISK OFF mentality -> so people leave risky investments to enter the safety that is cash If dollar FALLS in price -> it indicates a RISK ON mentality -> this means peoplpe are leaving the safety of the dollar to take risk in other investments. Im bringing you this analysis to assess the health of the broader markets and whether or not we are at risk of a down fall/ recession especially with tensions significantly rising in the Middle east. So jumping right in. I got 3 Red resistance trend lines drawn. This trendline, in part reflects Bull runs in broader markets. 2 from past history 1 which is associated with our current Price action. As you can see, this Resistance begins at the TOP price of DXY. Price is then supressed from a certain amount of time, before a breakout back ABOVE. Everytime we have broken the resistance trendline. The dollar starts a massive Bull run when measured: The 1st one lasted about 700 days The 2nd one lasted about 460 days. So the question i asked was how does this relate to the S&P and other markets. Does the breakout above resistance from the start cause drops in all markets? When i looked, i was surprised. Fall in other markets does NOT happen right off the breakout. In fact, when i measured after the resistance breakouts it takes roughly 133-189 days before S&P begins a BEAR market. As indicated by black lines. 1st example it took 133 days after breakout 2nd example took 189 days after breakout. We have recently broken out ABOVE the red resistance trendline. So if you consider previous history, our next Bear market i believe will begin sometime late Summer or early Fall. Now remember previous history does not have to repeat. It just helps us find patterns and consider things. It is however possible, if actual war does breakout. Things may change, as it would be considered a Black swan event. However, until it happens this is the likely scenario in my OPINION. Our current movements i think is just a pullback before continuing higher. __________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again. Stay tuned for more updates on DXY in the near future. If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.Longby SafofAllTrades2
DXY will going up ! ↗️The US Dollar Index (DXY) is poised for a bullish run in the coming months, supported by a number of factors, including rising interest rates in the United States, a weakening euro, and geopolitical tensions.Longby ChartSavant3
#DXY #dollar index chart looks bullish#DXY is preparing for next step of moving up and this bullishness will bring more volatility. Bad for #crypto #btc #commodities #stocks etc. Hard price declination will be the invalidation. Not financial advice.by naphyse0
Time for US Dollar to cool off !The US Dollar Index is showing a bearish chart pattern after having made a strong rally since the beginning of 2021. We are now seeing a correction that will most probably end in some kind of consolidation, which should take it down near the 100 mark. In the meantime, the EUR and GBP are booking some gains against the greenback! Shortby algodynamixUpdated 4
DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY): 2 Scenarios For This Week Explained⚠DXY closed last week at a solid daily resistance zone Depending on the reaction of the price to that structure, I see 2 potential scenarios for this week. Bullish Scenario If the price breaks and closes above 106.17 resistance on a 4-hour chart, a bullish continuation will be expected to 106.89 level. Bearish Scenario The price may respect the underlined resistance. 105.00 is the closest strong support. If the price drops and closes below that area, a bearish continuation will be expected to 104.00. Wait for a confirmation 👍Shortby linofx11115
Levels to watch for this weekWeek of the 15th April (H4) DXY: Consolidate along 106 resistance, look for breakout to 106.70. Maintain bullish if price stays above 105.30 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5915 SL 40 TP 110 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6640 SL 30 TP 90 USDJPY: Buy 154.20 SL 40 TP 75 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2475 SL 40 TP 115 EURUSD: Sell 1.07 SL 30 TP 160 USDCHF: Buy 0.9155 SL 25 TP 75 USDCAD: Sell 1.3730 SL 30 TP 90 Gold: Retrace to test 2327, if level holds, bounce to 2400 and 2420. by JinDao_Tai5
selldollar index is due a decent pullback today. so i see a retracement if not today this week. great RRShortby profit70percent5
GOLD & DOLLAR DXY & XAU/USD DOLLAR: - Currently price broke above the weekly OB - created a new daily breaker block GOLD: - Price making new all time highs - Price rejected $2400 - Possible retracement before next up leg11:59by liamsmith0
possibility of uptrend The current uptrend has the ability to reach the level of 138% and even the previous ceiling. In this case, according to the behavior of the indicator, the continuation of the movement process will be determined. Crossing the green support zone will initiate a downtrendLongby STPFOREX0