ETH - UpdateOur box didn't hold, we swept the previous low and are currently grinding down again.
The market is looking horrendous overall: we have 2 big spot buying twaps going on on BTC, while price keeps grinding down. Obviously that takes the entire market down as well, so it's impossible for ETH to catch a decent bid here.
Since it seems to react well off EMAs recently, I used these to give a general outlook about where we are and what 'working ranges' we might expect going forward.
I'm slowly positioning long on ETH through longer dated calls (from end of July through end of year). The expectation is to DCA in here and sell a big portion on the first big IV spike.
You can expect IV to go up into the event and come down after, so since I'm banking on IV to offset time decay and not really hoping on significantly higher prices, I need to be out before the actual event, because it reduces uncertainty and therefor should decrease implied volatility (IV), which has a big impact on options pricing.