Here is a simple ratio chart of Home price/Household Income, YOY rate of change overlaid with plain home prices. A few things we can learn from this chart. 1. A 4 to 5 X ratio used to be the bottom and top for home prices relative to household income. the ratio in 2000 after decades of stability rose to 6X income. Today we have spiked to 7.7X income. Clearly,...
I posted this chart back in Jan 2023 but for some reason, it failed to update properly. So I am reposting this chart in a more simple form in hopes it updates in the future. Home prices to median household income have hit new highs at 7.8 times and peaked out. The ratio is now rolling over and it seems very abrupt relative to previous tops. But unlike previous...
Looking at two measures of average home price, I've attempted to show one metric for predicting home value increases or decreases, at an average level. I've marked out some major market events. COVID had inflated home values to an unsustainably high level and the market is already correcting for it.