high yield spread, are people scared of risky bonds?this is great as it marks lows in the market with peaks in distrust and shows when people are risk off
About ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
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The end of history in a Credit Spread chartWe're witnessing a historic compression in high-yield credit spreads—and it’s not just a late-cycle technical fluke.
My thesis: we are seeing the gradual dissolution of the line between the private sector and the state. As corporations and government fuse into a single, encompassing Totalitarian S
BofA High Yield SpreadsI check this chart all the time. If the blue line starts trending higher the market will struggle.
Jaws closingThe high yield (junk bond) spread against Treasuries, having earlier moved above the important 4% threshold, continues to advance higher. It has now eclipsed 5%. Accompanying this indicator is the $SPY decline which has caused these "jaws" to move closer to closure. Maintain risk management and s
Credit Spreads - About to Blow?While credit spreads, which reached near-historic lows in 2024, remain tight, they have widened notably since the beginning of 2025. If this trend accelerates, it could put substantial pressure on the bond market, resulting in tighter financial conditions and corresponding headwinds for the domestic
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The 3-way of Economic Nightmares.I recently had a discussion on X, with regard to the Forecasting ability of High Yield Spreads. I was making the claim they do possess Leading Indicator qualities, while a gentleman took the other side of this debate.
To illustrate my views, I've put together a chart of FedFunds Rate, Unemployment
Market Stress and Bitcoin Price Reversals2008 Financial Crisis: Marked by a severe spike in the high yield spread, significant S&P 500 decline, and aggressive Fed rate cuts to stabilize the economy.
COVID-19 Market Crash (2020): Triggered sharp increases in market volatility and credit spreads. The Fed's rapid rate cuts aimed to support th
HY Junk Bond Spreads and SPX CorrelationAs you can see clearly on this chart, there is a high correlation between the BofA Option Adjusted Junk Bond Spread Index and the S&P500. While tough to use as a timing tool, when spreads widen to 4.5% or so, many times this is a good time to nibble in the S&P during a correction. When they reach 6%
BULLISH SETUP ON HY-IG SPREAD EMERGING. (BEARISH EQUITIES)Back in November of 2022 I wrote about using the HY-IG spread as a potential indicator of 'risk on' vs. 'risk off' sentiment and I will insert that below for readers trying to understand how this spread differential can be utilized. Subsequently I will explain what I currently see emerging on the ab
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US High yield spreads and interest rateComparison of US High yield spreads and interest rate. Spreads predict interest rate changes.
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