A mayor crash is due soon, T10y02y spread just trigger my entry point. I will be opening a short position on SPY. A huge short position
I have been following the spread between these two yields for a while. It seems the trend is reversing and soon we could see it moving to the upside. Guppy emas confirming the close we are to that trend reversing. Unfortunately this conditions leads to pain to financial markets like in the past. And this follow an easing response by the Fed lowering rates. Gold...
10Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts) Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level) We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability. Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels...
US recessions since 1980 plotted on the T10Y2Y 3M chart. Orange circles indicate value on the curve and the Stoch RSI value at the start of the first month and year of recession. Red vertical bars are length of recessions. Orange vertical lines on the Stoch RSI are the first month and year of the start of the recession. Good luck traders.
Reminder, when the yield curve turns positive, that's your warning to get out of stocks. AMEX:SPY , SP:SPX , $^ES
I made a chart to show past SPX action after the 10y-2y yield inversion unwound. Dec 2000: SPX was already in bear market and continued down. May 2007: SPX topped, then made a double top, then collapsed. Aug 2019 (atypical): SPX made a +10% move, then collapsed.
The inverted Yield is basically 6/6 as an indicator of an oncoming recession. At initial inversion the stock market sees initial growth as rates go higher. It isn't until on average 16-19 months that a recession occurs after initial inversion. www.putnam.com A study by Bloomberg tracked performance of the S&P 500 against the 2 and 10 year US treasury inverted...
The most important factor for the economy is the behaviour of GDP. Several economic indicators are tracked to determine the overall economic situation and GDP growth. A technical recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP. If GDP grows less than 3% on average for the year, the economy is not growing fast enough and this will lead to...
Link: www.tradingview.com your welcome! #WAGMI
I feel we have 107 days to ride the bull market starting next week, if govt. shutdown is not happening. Lets ride the bull. :)
Bitcoin Vs Recessions. We need more recession data, Bitcoin has never existed during an official recession before (time of writing sept 2023) but we can use this chart to see future trends.. lets see how it works out!!!
The chart posted is the 10/2 spread that everyone is watching >it bottomed see golden ratio
Can't help but notice the incredible amount of people calling for recession this or no recession both on Bloomberg and CNBC using the 10Y -2Y without adjusting it for the money debasement? Could not be more clearer almost all of these "market experts" still living in pre 2008 with their degrees are going to be absolutely obliterated buy the CPI and eventual...
Macro Monday (2) Potential Recession Time Horizon Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level: 1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980) 2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981) 3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990) 4) 12 Months (Mar...
This is a recession indicator, looking at the ten year % minus the two year %
Chart is self explanatory are we about to go Kaboom?
Could be 10 yr moves higher and the stock market takes a dive.
Last time things were this inverted is September 1981.