The All Ordinaries Index has just recorded 4 consecutive down weeks. Since 2000, following this type of weekly downward persistence, the 6-week forward interval had a tendency to yield a reasonable result. 6-week average return 3.58%, 17 up, 4 down, median 4.04%, standard deviation 5.84%, maximum 16.06%, minimum -9.40%.
Adding a volatility trending higher filter...
December 2021 marked 7 Consecutive Calendar Quarter Gains for the All Ordinaries Index. Data paucity caveats aside; What does this streak of quarterly gains portend for the Quarter ending March 2022? Momentum or Reversal? The historic record sides with Momentum.
Disclaimer: This data is not financial advice. Data is for educational & informational purposes only &...
I know it's a simple idea, and in 2020 the pattern has printed faster than it did in 2008-2009, but my gut is telling me history will repeat...
I'm not going long untill June or July. This will be when the market forward prices the September 2020 end to the temporary Jobkeeper scheme and the Jobseeker payments reverts back from $1100 fortnightly to $550 per f/n.
There's no doubt the Australian economy and share market has seen impressive continued growth up until March 2020.
It's clear from around 87 - March 2020 there market has been in a positive trend, with a rough support line, which is has only briefly dropped below in the 90's and notably in 2009 where it seems to hit a secondary support line in red.
It's clear...
Bearish reversal thoughts
5k at 0.618 would be strong support. Assuming same recovery timeframes from 2008 financial crash.
Happy to sit in property and infrastructure until i see monthly RSI turn up.
