JPY is moving in a nice range for the last while, which means we're going to trade mean reversion. I've learned that RSI, Stochastic and other overbought/sold indicators are more useful for this than trend trading, so we'll rely heavily on them for this type of setup.
- JPY is right at the top of the trading range, being clearly rejected with fat bearish candle...
Technicals: The JPY bulls broke above the trendline and it looks to have a higher probability in the upside.
Fundamentals: The JPY remains one of the less valued currency.
Risk-off phases are often characterised by safe-haven flows running towards CHF and/or JPY. Over the past two years, CHF has provided better upside judging by the way JPY/CHF performed during the period. But having observed the the tight range transition in JPY/CHF this past year, I'm beginning to sense a shift with JPY being the preferred safe-haven of choice....
The JPY/CHF has reached a vital area.
The pair is ending the month and approaching the 100 EMA. In previous sessions it failed to breakthrough.
Now we should watch out what price is going to do around this zone. Whether it will break it, providing opportunity to buy or it will consolidate and retrace back, providing opportunity to sell.
The wave count suggests...
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