CO1! trade ideas
Copper (HG) Short Term Pullback Should Find BuyersShort Term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG) shows that the rally from 2.9.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 2.9.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 3.9085 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 3.8015. The metal extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 4.164. Subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded in another impulsive structure in lesser degree as the 1 hour chart below shows. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 3.952 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 3.902. The metal extended higher in wave (iii) towards 4.081 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 4.0175. Final leg wave (v) ended at 4.164 which completed wave ((iii)).
Wave ((iv)) pullback is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (w) ended at 4.08 and wave (x) ended at 4.118. Wave (y) lower is in progress and target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (w). The area comes at 3.98 – 4.03 which is shown with a blue box area. From this area, the metal should extend higher or at least bounce in 3 waves. Near term, as far as the pullback stays above 3.978 (1.618 extension), expect the metal to turn higher from the blue box area.
Generational investment opportunityCopper is breaking out of a multi-year long cup-and-handle consolidation in daily time frame, as Gold first broke out. In the monthly time frame, Copper can be seen accumulating, steadily holding above all the moving averages. Once it breaks out of previous pivot, it would accelerate. Huge momentum in the next couple of years. Long-term investment opportunity.
Copper Supply Zone Copper JUST missed our supply zone entry located above the opening range.
Very Clear DBD (drop base drop) formation on the 15 min chart.
We called this out today in the live room. Hopefully we get another shot at this. You never know what is going to work. You can only trade what you see taking place on the chart at that moment.
Copper breakout weekly A breakout like this one could potentially ignite a longer term move up, potential for a spill over effect in other industrial commodities.
Buy May Copper 389.30. Stop at 382.40, target 398.60Copper got a few bullish technical signals.
Buy May Copper 389.30. Stop at 382.40, target 398.60
COPPER Best sell entry of the year.Copper (HG1!) has entered the 3.9740 - 4.0235 Resistance Zone that has been in effect since May 01 2023. It has provided the rejections of August 01 2023 and December 27 2023, with the latter hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement upon its reversal and the former the 0.786 level.
Technically the current 1D CCI pattern is almost identical to the one that preceded the August 01 2023 peak. We will pursue Target 1 at 3.800 (Fib 0.618) and Target 2 at 3.7400 (Fib 0.786).
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The Catalyst Sending Copper Higher? Copper futures prices rallied by more than 4% in the last week’s trade, and the metal is now approaching the year-to-date breakeven level. The question is: What is behind this rally?
Recent catalysts:
CPI and PPI came in well above estimates last week, sending interest rate yields higher. Industrial production numbers for the month of January contracted by -0.1% vs +0.1% expected. One would expect that both catalysts would have been negative for the industrial metal.
However, interesting developments in the manufacturing sector showed strength, especially the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which showed improving conditions for the first time since August 2023. PPI for the month of January was equally surprising, showing producer prices increased more than estimates.
Core PPI came in at +0.5% vs. +0.1% expected. A notable finding from the PPI report was that the final demand for construction, both government and private, was positive. This suggests a potential trough in construction, typically bullish for industrial metals such as copper.
Technicals:
Copper is currently trading between a wedge, and the recent break and close above the 50 and 200 Day EMAs suggest that we will likely retest the high end of the wedge. Breaking and closing above 3.95 would confirm an upside breakout.
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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COPPER Sell opportunity within a Channel Down.Copper (HG1!) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), on a Bullish Leg following the February 09 2024 rebound. That was a Lower Low within the Channel Down that started in December. The long-term pattern is a Falling Wedge and being much closer to its top, after the January 31 2024 than its bottom, this is a strong sell opportunity.
The August 2023 Lower High rejection initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before making a Lower Low much later. As a result our target is 3.6250, which is just above the0.786 Fibonacci level and a technical Lower Low for the short-term (blue) Channel Down.
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Buy March copper at 384.80 limit, stop at 378.80, tgt at 394.40
looking to buy copper on poullback ahead of NFP report tomorrow. Buy March copper at 384.80 limit, stop at 378.80, tgt at 394.40
CopperRight now copper futures (HG1!) are trading sideways in a well defined channel. With the growing demand for elecrtic vehicles and government pledges to decrease their carbon footprint copper should become a valuable commodity for building this new infastructure. While copper is trading in this channel I am going to be trading with the CPER ETF that tracks copper futures extrememly accuratly through the purchase of bonds to capture opportunities as prices bounce off of supports and resistance lines. When the price does break through the resitance I will switch to longer term investments in the COPX ETF which loosely emulates the Copper Futures but focuses on holding in mining companies and pays out dividends.
Copper futures. Disinflation is almost there to comeCopper futures fell further to around $3.8 per pound, marking a weekly loss driven by concerns over demand from China and heightened US interest rates.
China's manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, contributing to the negative sentiment.
With a robust US jobs report, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have diminished.
Weaker Q1 industrial activity is expected to dampen demand, although Glencore's projected 5% production decline in 2023, along with an anticipated additional drop in 2024, could offset this.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope that China will implement measures to stabilize its economy.
Technical graph illustrates also, 5-years SMA is a massive long term support in this time for Copper futures COMEX:HG1! , as it breakthrough can deliver solid further losses for Copper futures prices, like in 2020 (30% off), in 2014-16 (40% off) and in 2008-09 (50% off).
Bear 🐻 flag pattern A bear flag is a bearish chart pattern that's formed by two declines separated by a brief consolidating retracement period. The flagpole forms on an almost vertical panic price drop as bulls get blindsided from the sellers, then a bounce that has parallel upper and lower trendlines, which form the flag.
Copper in USD per ton to reach $15,000/t by 2025The copper price in USD per ton since 2015 is rising within an upward (green) trend-channel with consolidations (red) followed by strong acceleration phases (yellow) suggesting that the correction since 2021 is coming to an end and that a new strong price increase is poised to start once the red resistance is broken and transformed into new support. Analysts in early 2024 are forecasting a strong price increase of +75% to reach $15,000 USD/t to spur new mine developments (Goldman Sachs predicted this price level already in 2021 to be reached by 2025, whereas mining magnate Robert Friedland also said in late 2023 that this threshold is needed as an incentive for new copper mine developement projects to be realized).
Dr Copper Monthly looking to rally medium termMonthly chart looking to rally
initial Divergence trade has played out, now it looks like the path of least resistance is up
Copper shark attackIf you trust the recent 9/20 day moving average crossover enough to short copper, today's bounce back toward the 9MA might be a good one to sell.
When setting a profit target to the downside, a harmonic trader could project a shark with its C-point (D-point in the diagram) in the neighborhood of 3.5365 (red circle), for about a USD0.25 profit per contract. This would work out to USD625 for the mini contract or USD3125 for the full contract.
If the shark went on to complete by drawing a full CD leg (green arrow to green circle), that would be another USD0.25 to the upside.
Whither copper?On the left we see in formation the final leg of a nice ABCD harmonic pattern in copper futures— if it forms. The moving average crossover suggests otherwise.
For further guidance, we can examine Dr. Copper's price pattern since commodity prices started to settle down in early 2022.
Your move. We would find it acceptable not to do so for at least a few days.
Sell march copper 383.60. Stop 386.90, tgt 372.80Sell march copper 383.60. Stop 386.90, tgt 372.80
Copper closed below a key support level
**Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss.
The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and
does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only
risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results**
hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
one of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. in addition, hypothetical trading does no involve fina
ncial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. there are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Im bullish all comodities, especially Energy and selective metalThe dollar is going lower, so longs in selective commodity make sense
Hammer low in Dr. Copper!
COPPER : REBOUND- The market registers higher peaks and bottoms, trading within a bullish channel since the end of October 2023, the medium-term trend is therefore bullish.
- Very recently, prices recorded a 4th impact on their bullish trendline, following a sell-off since the failure below the $397.40 area.
A strong positive reaction is currently recorded in the shape of a piercing price pattern, following a bullish divergence registered by the Stochastic indicator.
- This is a bullish rebound situation. Indeed, bullish investors appear to be numerous and powerful enough to prevent the market from breaking its downward trend line. The next targets can be located at $387, $391.10 then $397.40 and finally above $400 by extension
buy march copper 379.20 limit, if filled, stop 371.60buy march copper 379.20 limit, if filled, stop 371.60
COPPER: Long term sell signalCopper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.350, MACD = 0.033, ADX = 19.471) as it is at the top of the 2023 Channel Down, but having failed to cross over it, opens the way for a big decline in the first quarter of 2024. As you can see the Channel Down that started last January looks very similar to the one in 2012/13. Both emerged after a Global peak and then rejection to an oversold 1W RSI bottom.
It is very interesting how similar the ranges are, both Channel Down bearish legs have been around -18.50%. We are turning bearish on the most optimal technical level and aim for another -18.50% decline (TP = 3.2500) or up when the 1W RSI gets oversold (under 30.000).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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