Ya, no super confidence now, as the price smashed my shorts too often too much lately. However, the gap is closed, the price is knocking at the resistance and the count, and diagonal pattern on lower timeframes all say the bounce is over. Still need to sort out the bigger picture. It is a bit unclear at the moment. Or wait until it gets itself clear.
I feel quite strongly that RTS is in a steep downtrend. New lows on the chart are compounded with a new low on RSI. We shall expect even lower lows very soon.
It looks like RTS has just completed wave 4 (before US ballot results announcement) with a simple ABC, with wave 5 of C coming out as an expanding diagonal confirmed by RSI divergence. This is a perfect setup. The timeframe is a bit too low but hey looks good. The tip of the wave 4 is marked with bearish candles on every timeframe starting from 1 min to Daily.
This chart I am not so confident about. I keep big shorts on the index and therefore need to keep evaluating what is happening to keep my perspective in check.
Despite being uncomfortable with the immediate interpretation, I think the trend is far from being over.
Unsure about the bigger count. This expanding diagonal in wave 5 could have marked the end of C and W and we are now in X.
However, I incline to believe we just ended 1st wave of C and freefall will start soon together with the broader market.
The index behaves like this is only the beginning. Though sharp counter-trend rallies are possible. Especially expecting the one in gold and US stocks.
