RTS Index Futures

RI1! MOEX

Deus

RTS is channelling and is likely to reverse before touching the upper trendline of the channel.

Deus

Ya, no super confidence now, as the price smashed my shorts too often too much lately. However, the gap is closed, the price is knocking at the resistance and the count, and diagonal pattern on lower timeframes all say the bounce is over. Still need to sort out the bigger picture. It is a bit unclear at the moment. Or wait until it gets itself clear.

Deus

I feel quite strongly that RTS is in a steep downtrend. New lows on the chart are compounded with a new low on RSI. We shall expect even lower lows very soon.

Deus

It looks like RTS has just completed wave 4 (before US ballot results announcement) with a simple ABC, with wave 5 of C coming out as an expanding diagonal confirmed by RSI divergence. This is a perfect setup. The timeframe is a bit too low but hey looks good. The tip of the wave 4 is marked with bearish candles on every timeframe starting from 1 min to Daily.

Deus

RTS seems to be getting ready for a freefall.

Deus

Just watching the action and revising the count as waves unfold. If it goes as projected, there will be a nice short set up from the resistance area.

Deus

I recast my previous counts to sync it with US markets and oil.

Deus

Ha... I think I nailed it. Wave 1 just a hair-thin shorter than wave 3. This promises extended wave 5.

Deus

This chart I am not so confident about. I keep big shorts on the index and therefore need to keep evaluating what is happening to keep my perspective in check. Despite being uncomfortable with the immediate interpretation, I think the trend is far from being over.

Deus

If oil drops as sharp as I expect RTS may go freefall

Deus

And that one I expect to keep plunging.

andy796

first move on 116 000 Next to 125 000

Deus

With oil having finalised its correction RTS correction also looks complete.

Deus

A zigzag correction seems the most probable one here.

Deus

Unsure about the bigger count. This expanding diagonal in wave 5 could have marked the end of C and W and we are now in X. However, I incline to believe we just ended 1st wave of C and freefall will start soon together with the broader market.

Deus

Russian Market is also likely stuck in a sideways movement for now while gold and SP500 are working through their corrections.

Deus

The index behaves like this is only the beginning. Though sharp counter-trend rallies are possible. Especially expecting the one in gold and US stocks.

Deus

Waves analysis tells that we are possibly in the 3rd of c, which should be sharp and scary.