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Super Micro Computer AI-Fueled Growth Meets a Bullish Turnaround SMCI is turning around into a bullish trend, with the recent retracement attracting renewed buying interest. The stock is showing improving technical momentum as buyers step in following the pullback. Super Micro Computer, Inc. is a $25bn market cap company that manufactures and distributes information technology solutions and computer products. Its offerings include GPU and coprocessor systems, servers, storage solutions, motherboards, chassis, workstations, power supplies, SuperRacks, and server management products. SMCI is a no-moat company but has delivered strong fundamental growth, with revenue and EPS increasing in each of the last three quarters. In the most recent quarter, revenue and EPS grew 93% and 471%, respectively. Operating and net margins are 13% and 10%, while ROE and ROIC are 21% and 14%. The company has a current ratio of 3.9x and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6x. Revenue and EPS are forecast to grow consistently over the next three quarters, with next-quarter growth expected at 156% and 181%, respectively. The average analyst target price is approximately $41.33, implying about 7% upside potential.

by finvestnomics

ABCD Harmonic pattern ABCD Harmonic pattern: Support buy area :33-35$ You can make your stop loss -1/-2$ below 33 Targets are written on the chart .

SMCI - Setting Up for Break-Out SMCI is consolidating within a key support zone between 33 and 37, while the uptrend from the July lows remains intact. As long as price holds above 33, the bullish structure remains valid. A breakout from this range could lead to a move toward the 48–52 resistance area in the coming weeks. Chart:

by BelFed_Analytics

SMCI TOO CHEAP TOO MANY SHORTS...Imagine a company that’s not just riding the AI wave but steering it—Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is that titan. With demand for its servers skyrocketing—think $14.94 billion in 2024 revenue, doubled from the prior year, and a $40 billion 2026 target—it’s the undisputed king of high-performance computing. Why? SMCI’s mastered the art of execution, delivering custom, energy-efficient servers faster than anyone. Its secret weapon? Liquid cooling technology, backed by 9 critical patents, that’s revolutionizing data centers. While others scramble to keep up, SMCI’s already shipped over 100,000 liquid-cooled GPUs, slashing power costs by up to 40% and meeting the insatiable needs of AI factories. This isn’t new for SMCI. As a motherboard manufacturing pioneer since 1993, it’s spent decades perfecting modular, scalable designs—think Lego bricks for tech giants. That legacy, paired with its server supremacy, creates an unassailable moat. Dell and HP? They’re playing catch-up. Dell’s AI servers are a fraction of its business (5% of revenue), and HP’s enterprise arm lacks SMCI’s agility. Neither matches SMCI’s rack-scale integration or its chokehold on Nvidia’s ecosystem—SMCI’s the go-to for Blackwell GPUs, where liquid cooling is non-negotiable. Competitors face a brutal truth: SMCI’s patents and speed-to-market are a wall too high to climb. Yet, at ~$36 today (March 3, 2025), SMCI’s shares scream undervalued. A forward P/E of 20-25, with 54% YoY growth in Q2 2025 prelims ($5.6-$5.7 billion), dwarfs Dell’s 15 P/E on slower gains. The Street’s “Hold” and $45-$53 targets miss the mark—SMCI’s moat and demand suggest $70-$100 is closer. Tariff fears and audit noise? Temporary static. With 85% institutional ownership and AI infrastructure spending surging (Gartner predicts $367 billion in 2025 data center spend), SMCI’s poised to soar. This isn’t just a stock—it’s a steal, a front-row seat to the AI revolution, with a moat that leaves rivals drowning in its wake.

MSCI: BULLISH PLAYBOOK to ATHs What is good boys, My ideal scenario for MSCI is very simple: I want MSCI to take the main range and then begin developing a proper accumulation model. If we get the sweep + accumulation confirmation, this becomes an extremely high-probability macro long in my framework. And I'm not looking for a small bounce. If the model develops the way I expect, I believe MSCI can eventually trade well beyond its previous ATHs, with the larger macro projection offering potential ~600% spot upside towards ATHs, the first TP area. The important part? I don't want to buy before the model exists. Range low → Liquidity sweep → Accumulation → Confirmation → Macro expansion. Everyone wants the breakout. I want to be positioned where the breakout is manufactured.

SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: ++ NVIDIA, OpenAI and SB Energy plan 4.25 GW AI Data Center campus in Ohio - W.Media + News | OpenAI, SB Energy, Nvidia team up on one of largest planned data center projects - CoStar (fading) + BlackRock (BLK) & NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): BlackRock’s Larry Fink Says the US Alone Needs 70 Gigawatts of Power for AI (fading) 112 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)

SMCI — Daily Structure: The Empty Space Matters SMCI is moving into an interesting part of the daily structure, and the most important thing on this chart may actually be where price historically has not spent much time. The major upper battlefield, in my view, is roughly 45–48. That area combines prior structure with the long-term descending trendline and is where I would expect a more meaningful fight between buyers and sellers if price continues higher. What stands out below it is the lack of sustained agreement. From roughly 32–45, SMCI historically has spent relatively little time consolidating. The 32–40 region is especially thin. Price has generally moved through that area rather than establishing prolonged acceptance inside it. That does not mean consolidation there is impossible. It does mean I would be cautious about assuming current price automatically becomes a new long-term balance area simply because price has reached it. My bearish thesis does not require rejection here SMCI could reject from current structure. It could also continue higher toward 45–48 before sellers regain control. Both remain reasonable possibilities. A move higher through this relatively empty area would not, by itself, invalidate the bearish thesis. The more important question is what happens when price reaches the upper battlefield. A rejection around 45–48 would keep the larger descending structure intact. A clean break through that area followed by acceptance and structure developing above it would be much more important. That is the sequence I care about: break → acceptance → structure Not simply a wick through resistance. Why 52 matters The next major reference is around 52. If SMCI can break the descending structure, establish itself above the 45–48 battlefield, and then gain acceptance above 52, I would have to give substantially more weight to the bullish thesis. That could represent a meaningful change in the larger daily structure rather than another rally inside a broader decline. The lower battlefield If the bearish thesis begins developing, the 30–32 region becomes extremely important. Unlike much of the territory above it, this area has much stronger historical evidence of agreement and sustained negotiation. That makes 30–32 a legitimate base-or-break decision area, not simply another downside target. If price reaches it and buyers establish acceptance, it could become the foundation for another larger move. If that structure fails decisively, however, the bearish picture changes materially and the lower references around 28 and 22 become increasingly relevant. I also highlighted the much deeper historical low on the chart. That is not a prediction or target. It simply provides evidence that substantially deeper downside has existed within this broader structure before. That establishes possibility, not probability. For that deeper scenario to become credible, I would need to see deterioration happen sequentially rather than assume it in advance. What I’m watching My current structural framework is: 45–48: primary upper battlefield. 32–45: historically thin acceptance area. 32–40: especially little evidence of prolonged consolidation. Break + acceptance above 45–48: bullish thesis strengthens materially. Acceptance above 52: potentially meaningful daily structural change. Rejection from current structure or 45–48: bearish thesis remains viable. 30–32: major lower negotiation / base-or-break area. Decisive failure there: deeper downside becomes increasingly relevant. The dotted paths are illustrations of possible outcomes, not candle-for-candle predictions. The important lesson here is that absence of agreement can be information too. I am not trying to predict exactly where SMCI turns. I am identifying where price has historically been willing to stay, where it has tended to travel quickly, and where the next meaningful structural decisions are likely to occur.

by heavydiligence

SMCI | Bullish Above $38.50, Golden Cross Setup Developing I liked today’s action a lot. SMCI closed at $39.84 (+1.74%) on roughly 62M shares while much of the broader market finished red. That relative strength stands out, especially following the recent earnings-driven breakout. The biggest technical takeaway for me is that $38.50 held. SMCI traded down to $38.74, found buyers, reclaimed $39, and closed back near $40 without giving back much of the breakout. That makes $38.50 my tactical line in the sand going into Monday. There’s also an important MA setup developing here: SEE BLUE FLAG The 20 (green), 50 (orange), and 200-day moving averages (blue) are converging The 50-day is approaching the 200-day A potential golden cross looks increasingly close *** That kind of MA compression can become very important if price continues holding above the cluster and momentum expands. My roadmap: Above $38.50: bullish structure remains intact Break $40.60: opens another push higher $42.25–42.50: next major confirmation zone Break $42.50: $47 becomes the next meaningful upside target (would be first major TP) On the downside: Lose $38.50: $35–36 likely comes back into play. LH / LL structure could be established. Seems unlikely. RSI is also showing strong momentum, so I would prefer to see price hold these gains rather than immediately overextend. What I like most is the relative strength. SMCI didn’t need a strong market backdrop to hold the breakout today. Going into Monday, I’m bullish above $38.50, more aggressive above $40.60, and looking for real confirmation through $42.50.

by NTDCinvestments

SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: ++ Oakland real estate developer announces plan for data center in downtown - CBS News ++ Super Micro Computer beats on earnings as margins surge (fading) 110 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)

SMCI 3rd/C wave We have here a beautiful daily chart of SMCI : I think the correction of a double combination wave is already done and we are going for a s3rd wave /C wave : Target 1=51.4 $ Target 2=58.78 $ Target 3=68.1 $ Target 4= 75.09 $ Good luck .

SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: ++ Oakland real estate developer announces plan for data center in downtown - CBS News ++ Super Micro Computer beats on earnings as margins surge (fading) 110 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)

SMCI — What Would Make This a True Long-Term Bull Reversal?There are plenty of ways SMCI could develop from here. But possibilities are not trades. We trade probabilities, not possibilities. And on the daily chart, I personally do not see a long-term setup with enough evidence yet to call this a confirmed bullish reversal. The reason is simple: The long-term pattern has not broken. SMCI can rally. It can reclaim AOAs. It can build higher lows. It can even make a substantial move higher while still remaining inside the larger descending structure. Those things can improve the chart without changing the long-term trend. For me, calling this a genuine long-term bullish reversal would require price to challenge that descending structure, break through it, and then demonstrate that it can hold outside the pattern rather than simply wick through it and fall back inside. Until then, bullish movement is still occurring within a structure that has repeatedly produced lower resistance over time. That distinction matters. A bullish move is not automatically a bullish reversal. What I would want to see If I were evaluating this as a swing trade, I would want the market to provide considerably more evidence before putting long-term money behind the thesis. I would want to see price work through the important AOAs, challenge the long-term descending boundary, and establish sustainable structure above it. When that happens is impossible to know. It could happen relatively soon. It could take months. And unfortunately for bulls, it could take much longer. That uncertainty is exactly why I would not trade the long-term possibilities shown by this chart today. There simply isn't a probability I personally find attractive enough yet. Disclosure I am primarily a day trader. I am not currently trading SMCI as a long-term position, and this analysis should be read in that context. This is simply how I would evaluate the chart if I were considering a swing or longer-term position. For now, my conclusion is straightforward: The price action can improve before the long-term trend actually changes. If the long-term descending structure eventually breaks and price proves it can live above it, then I would reassess the probabilities. Until then, I would rather wait for the market to provide evidence than place money behind one of many possible outcomes. Preparation > Prediction.

by heavydiligence

SMCI Earnings on Early-August Could Be the Spark SMCI’s early-August earnings are very likely to be a bullish catalyst, and I think big money may use that report as the excuse to run it up. After SMCI’s explosive move in 2022, the stock has spent more than two years consolidating near the highs. Now it’s getting very close to the end of a wedge structure. Within that wedge, it has already found valid support twice from the long-term ascending channel that has been in place for more than a decade — the orange channel on my chart. At the same time, retail positioning between roughly $22 and $60 has been badly washed out. A lot of weak hands are gone. What makes this setup even more interesting is that the August earnings date lines up almost perfectly with the end of the wedge. For me, that gives enough reason to believe SMCI could use the news catalyst to trigger a violent breakout. We saw almost the exact same movie with AVAV on June 30: end of a descending wedge + support at the bottom of an ascending channel + earnings day. I bought AVAV on June 25, quickly made around 100%, and I’m still holding it now. That said, SMCI’s market structure is not as clean or perfectly engineered as a textbook setup, so I would not size too aggressively here. A weekly close below $19.80 would invalidate my thesis. The setup is loaded. Now it just needs earnings to pull the trigger. NASDAQ:SMCI

by JordanBelfort4

Breakout time.Smci is about to start a massive rally to catch up with the rallys from the semiconductor sector. Smci has proven that they doing great. Smci is trasing in 2 symmetrical triangles on the weekly chart. I am eying all time high.

Week 33 of 52 | SMCI This Is the Level We Were Waiting For Three weeks ago, we said $34–$38 was the level NASDAQ:SMCI needed to reclaim before we could talk about a real change in structure. Today, the stock is finally there. And the timing is interesting. SMCI is jumping after earnings, but this move is not only about the headline. Gross margins came in much stronger than expected, the company continues to see massive AI infrastructure demand, and management is guiding for another big year ahead. That matters because demand was never really the biggest question around SMCI. The bigger concern was whether the company could turn all that growth into better profitability. For a while, the market wasn't convinced. Now we're starting to see some improvement. But the chart still has something to prove. The $34–$38 area has rejected the stock before, and this is exactly where the previous recovery failed. A strong move above this zone — and more importantly, holding above it — would be the first real sign that the structure is changing. If that happens, $42–$45 becomes the next area I'm watching. Above that, the bigger $48–$52 resistance comes back into play. On the other hand, if today's move gets rejected and SMCI falls back below $34, then this could simply become another strong earnings bounce inside a much larger range. Levels I'm watching: • $34–$38 — Breakout / confirmation zone • $42–$45 — Next resistance • $48–$52 — Major resistance • $25–$26 — Major support The interesting part is how this story has developed. First, SMCI defended the $20–$25 area we were watching. Now it has climbed all the way back to the exact resistance zone we identified in the previous update. The support did its job. Now it's the resistance that needs to prove itself. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk according to your own strategy.

SMCI: Measured Move Target Signals $46.20 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares popped 8% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the AI server maker issued a rosy full-year revenue outlook and posted fiscal fourth quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations, driven by surging AI hardware demand. From a technical standpoint, the shares appear to have carved out an inverse head and shoulders formation, a chart pattern that signals a potential bullish trend reversal. To project a bullish price target, we can use the measured move technique. When applying the analysis to Supermicro's chart, we calculate the percentage distance of the head and shoulders and add it to the pattern's neckline value. For instance, we add 40% to $33.00, which forecasts a target of $46.20. It's also worth pointing out that this level sits just below several prominent peaks on the chart dating back to December 2024.

by timothysmith78

SMCI Bullish - Wyckoff Accumulation Ending Reaching the end of a wyckoff accumulation phase here and I expect to see a markup phase begin over the next few months. Weekly chart so not a short term play

SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: + NVIDIA teams up with Wall Street giants to finance over $500 billion for AI infrastructure - Neowin + Nvidia CEO Calls AI Data Centers 'Investable Assets' After Partnership With Wall Street Firms For $500B Financing Ventur (fading) + What Does Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Winning A Gigawatt AI Data Center Mean? - Yahoo Finance (fading) 21 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)

SMCI Hourly: Two Ways Earnings Could Resolve This SMCI is compressing into earnings with price sitting around a repeatedly important $31–$32 area while rising support continues underneath. That makes tomorrow interesting because the setup can resolve in two very different ways: Continuation: price breaks from the current structure and keeps moving in that direction. Overreaction: earnings creates a violent move, but price fails to hold it and snaps back toward prior structure. Those can happen either bullish or bearish. The green and red paths on my chart are just visual examples of how each type of move could develop. What I’m watching structurally: Above ~$32 and holding → bullish continuation gets cleaner, with $34–$36 becoming more relevant. Rejection + loss of rising support → bearish continuation becomes more credible, with ~$27 coming into focus. The overreaction version is different: a large earnings move in either direction that quickly fails and reverses. That’s why I’m not trying to predict the earnings result itself. I’m trying to identify what kind of move develops after the catalyst. Tomorrow’s options market is already pricing a large move, and SMCI has a history of sizable post-earnings reactions, so this is exactly the kind of setup where structure matters more than guessing the headline.

by heavydiligence

SMCI: news flow leaning bullish — the net read SMCI did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded: + TSMC Sales Rise 45% After AI Spending Roars On Despite Jitters - Bloomberg.com + Licensed source - withheld (fading) + Vistra (VST) Could Be 53% Undervalued On EBITDA Growth And Data Center Deal - simplywall.st 13 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed. Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale. What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation. Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print. I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way. (Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.)

SMCI: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Q4 Earnings (Aug. 11)SMCI: Key Levels Ahead of Q4 Earnings Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reports Q4 earnings after the market closes on August 11, making it one of the most closely watched AI infrastructure stocks this week. The company has benefited from strong demand for AI servers and high-performance computing solutions, but earnings events often bring elevated volatility. Rather than predicting the outcome, I'm focusing on the key technical levels that could guide the next move. 📈 Bullish Scenario Holding above the 200 EMA (~$31) keeps momentum constructive. A move above $34.50 could target $38.00. If buyers remain in control, $44.00 becomes the next major resistance and a potential gap-fill area. 📉 Bearish Scenario Losing $30.90 would be the first sign of weakness. Below $28.00, price could revisit $24.34. A disappointing earnings reaction could bring $21.06 into focus as the next major long-term support. Levels I'm Watching 🟢 Resistance: $34.50 → $38.00 → $44.00 🔴 Support: $30.90 → $28.00 → $24.34 → $21.06 I'm not trying to predict earnings—I'm preparing for both outcomes and letting price confirm direction before entering a trade. ⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk around earnings events.

by Lithuanian_trader

SMCI - sideshow until one breaks Hi everyone, Looking at this chart for a large Wave to finish in a Triangle as all internal waves from the top are in 3 waves -ABC Final wave E I am tracking 2 options : 1 - It finished and ABC into (A) now I am looking at 47$ for wave (B) then to retest the 22$ lvl for wave (C) to finish E; Why 47$ ? There is a huge downtrend line that in the past price reacted to; Previous lvl on the fib retrace of 0.887 was respected in the big structure as a B wave; Same support of 0.887 Fib Retrace to finish the (c) into E at 22$ Supply and Demand volum at the 47 and 22$ lvls 2- Wave E is Finishes as we have am ABC, while very short compared to the rest, we have a 3 wave internal and is in the triangle structure; Conclusion : Case 1 , will take profit and wait for the 22$ test - Key on WAIT! As it could brake down… Case 2 - stock breaks the 49$ pushing higher then retest; Please comment, judge and be constructive, we all learning! To mention @Wiseball for his amazing Divergence Indicators - Go Check him out!

SMCI 4H — The Less Exciting Scenario Matters Too After laying out the daily chart, I wanted to zoom into the 4-hour because this timeframe shows something the daily view can hide: SMCI could simply stay boring for a while. The daily chart has a constructive bullish scenario if price eventually works its way back toward the larger declining trendline and the $52 area. But that is only one possibility. On the 4-hour, price is still sitting inside a well-defined Area of Agreement, and there is nothing here that says it has to break out immediately. A perfectly reasonable scenario is continued rotation inside roughly the mid-$20s to low-$30s portion of this structure for weeks. That would not invalidate the larger bullish possibility. It would simply mean price is still building structure before making a more meaningful decision. For me, that distinction matters. I’m not looking at this chart and thinking, “SMCI is about to move.” I’m looking at it and thinking: If it remains inside this area, I expect range-bound behavior. If the structure begins to change, then I start paying closer attention. The daily chart gives me the larger roadmap. The 4-hour chart reminds me that sometimes the market takes the scenic route.

by heavydiligence