Trade the nearest Energy future it makes sense to trade long only the latest energy future, as they are in backwardation (future prices are cheaper than current one)
so huge gains on the november contract that expires on 31th oct.
AGAJ2024 trade ideas
Heating Oil / Low Sulphur Gasoline LONGthe NYMEX:HO1!
breaks usually one day earlier before
VANTAGE:GASOIL
follows to the upside
in the past it was profitable to get into gasoil instrument even if there was no break above the prior high...
as Low Sulphur Gasoline follows Heating Oil
Daily HO analysisDaily HO analysis
Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
NY Heating Oil ReliefNYMEX:HO1!
NY Heating Oil Relief
I just filled up the heating oil tank.
$4.40 per gallon for 200 gallons = $880 delivered to the Fat_Fat residence.
Pre-Covid it was half that price.
Imagine being in Europe this winter..... Damn.
Hopefully we see this big "C' wave down.
Targeting the 0.618 fib at approximately $2.35
My fellow New Yorker's need some relief.
Fat_Fat
Daily HO analysisDaily HO analysis
Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
Daily HO analysisDaily HO analysis
Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments
FAILED TO DUMP - A9N1 - ARGUS PROPANE - SAUDI ARAMCO - WEEKLYThank you for your likes and comment. Little bit of risks have been taken in this analysis. Still, all, under probabilities. Thank you for your support.
Saudi Aramco price has been illustrating what is "divergence" in chart analysis.
It is back to an important price point.
From here, it is possible to see the price ranging to then recover fon a long run in the "long" direction.
Fundamental analysis here is crucial as it might probably depends on the World Political Climate and "Tensions" negotiations.
TRADE OF THE WEEK: Heating Oil longCrude Oil and Natural Gas did not move up last week, but instead the LOW SULPHUR GASOIL ( VANTAGE:GASOIL (10 contracts moved up 1000$) or NYMEX:HO1!
is now up 10.000$ per contract last week.
If you are not invested yet, backtests show that entering on breaks above 4 hour bars with trailing the stop below the last two 4 hour bars was profitable.
You never know when the rally is over, 22th of august was a low last year that gave me the hint to not exit at the double top.
Beginning of september backtests show all commodities get sold, so lets see what happens next week...
ULSD / Diesel Fuel LongThis analysis is contingent on data that cannot be cited due to the source's explicit restrictions placed on republishing without expressed written consent.
ULSD is of particular interest in the energy markets for the following reasons:
• It is quoted based on delivery at New York Harbor. This means that it has localized supply / demand factors related to the Eastern United states. Data shows supply is particularly tight at this location.
• Traders are exporting virtually all US oil overseas due to the spread between WTI and Brent
• No tankers set to deliver low sulfur distillates to New York Harbor for over a month.
On top of these factor, there's a clear support zone at the current price. Given that simple technicals are lining up with fundamentals, the trade seems favorable. Major risk factors include OPEC+ meeting, however I speculate that OPEC will not increase supply due to negative data regarding oil consumption.
NY Harbor ULSD Futures (HO1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 3.7979
Pivot: 3.5345
Support : 3.1892
Preferred Case: On the H4, with RSI moving along the descending trendline and price moving along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 3.5345 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and pullback support are. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to intermediate support at 3.3537 in line with swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Should price break intermediate support, we would have a bearish bias that price will drop to 1st support at 3.1892 where the swing low support, 127.2% fibonacci extension and -27.2% fibonacci expansion are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 3.7979 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: The chance of further Federal Reserve rate increases has grown as a result of the US CPI data released overnight showing higher-than-anticipated inflation growth, raising the risk of a worldwide recession and giving us a bearish bias on the oil.
Most important strategy in 2022: 30 min fractal S&Rthere is a strong support or resistance area on 30 min charts when looking at prior extreme points (fractals)
today buying a gap down heating oil or two days ago shorting heating oil are very profitable trades.
the support is clearly on top of the prior 30 min bar at an prior extrempoing
whereas the resistance is clearly at the low of a prior top bar.
Heating Oil target at 1.61 extensionheating oil had a nice run, make sure to secure profits at the fibo extensions
Heating Oil and Coffee triggered new long signalsupdated my setups page www.tradingview.com
Heating Oil and Coffee triggered new long signals in addition to the index futures the energy commodities also seam to move higher...
Jet Fuel Takes OffWhen will jet fuel stop making all time highs? I think this speaks volumes about the continued pace of inflation combined with a post-2020 "get me outta here and fly me somewhere" mentality, in addition to other factors. So now people want to fly after not flying for a few years. Why do we have to pay mafia level prices now? I guess now it's time for the propaganda machine to shift the narrative to blaming people for their sudden surge flying habits, which still considerably falls short of pre-2020 levels. Rather than looking at the true source of price inflation: Yes, I mean the mafia overlords themselves at the Federal Reserve, their higher order of archdemon overlords will shift blame to something else. If our eating habits were to become an increasing result of centralized policy, for example, we'd all be forced to eat hot dogs and drink orange juice right about now - the only items in the CPI where it seems inflation is somewhat accurately portrayed.
I can imagine the posters already:
PLEASE refrain from your disgusting urges of flying, LOYAL citizens!
Take this delicious and nutritious diet of HOT DOGS and ORANGE JUICE instead.
Do Uncle Sam PROUD, FIGHT inflation TODAY!
Do your part for OUR NATION!
Oh my...
Seriously though, you gotta give some respect to orange juice , SO FAR:
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets! ;)
New short trade: Heating OilIn addition to S&P and Bitcoin some commodities also have nice short setups:
www.tradingview.com
Target as usual on countertrend trades are prior open or closing prices.
Energy - Oil / DeiselTrucking - specifically the $TRAN and Deisel Fuel Oil is under immense duress.
The primary support system for moving goods is seeing lasting stress which will
lead to further supply shortages.
Shortages will begin to appear at an accelerated pace into August.
_____________________________________________________________________
Stocking up on basics... a very good idea.
Over 70 percent of....all goods we consume are moved by truck. If truckers pay more for gas, you will pay more at checkout. This will feed through, especially considered that diesel stocks are at multi-year lows.
Long June Heating Oil(GHOM22)Buy June heating oil 375.10 on stop, if filled stop 361.75, 1st tgt 397.75
**Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss.
The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and
does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only
risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results**
hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
one of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. in addition, hypothetical trading does no involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. there are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Heating Oil target reachedat 5.2 we had the 2x extension of prior correction.
Its time to take some profits.
Unfortunatly investing in heating oil is not as easy as in crude oil
If have found ETFs or stocks with options that are similar to heating oil, please mention them in the comments
Trade of the week: Heating Oil longVolume profile strategy to buy above the value area high works perfectly on heating oil
Heating and crude oil LONGCOT data is showing a buying opportunity in the energy sector
my setup is to buy above the 18 moving average and sell on a close below the moving average or on a new swing high
Heating (+ Crude) Oil short there was a low risk short entry after the rally topped out at a double top
both strategies worked out
1. to short rallies above a 50% level of a prior downmove ment
2. to go short at the top of a blue daily bar
worked out...
