Crude**CrudeOil:** This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel and reverse to the top of the channel.Shortby simaoxceps223
Crude Oil - Turbo TuesdayWell yesterday all targets where hit and some! Today we have more targets to meet and London has not dissapointed so far NY we will see what happens but for now I have Monthly ssl and weekly CE of wick and the Daily SSL as 3 main draws that will act as Bearish Bias. That is the Forecast! Shortby IamThattraderUpdated 332
CRUDE OIL LONG from $72.75This is an area I have been waiting for weeks, and its coming up on this daily chart of Crude Oil futures. I have highlighted the last to times price has aproached this trendline, expect to base for a bit, use an indication that turns positive and make your move. The whole structure is in a very large triangle. I can tell you there is a fair value gap as well at in the entry target as the will get filled. Target is to the top the triangle potentially this trade can last weeks. Longby MaximiliannedUpdated 228
Bullish on Crude oilNYMEX:CL1! TVC:DXY Right now as the Crude Oil prices are at *premium and technically we are around a strong support area I think we would see a rally somewhere between 67.5 and 72.5. However, this week, we have PMI and NFP news ahead so if the reports come out to support DXY, Crude oil might stay around this area for a while (as it's seasonality suggests) * look at the closing price of the futures contracts between July and December 2024.Longby SamanFx0225
WTi - BUY I see a Gap to be filled on MT4 They show up for various reason Very high chance will return to Fill it As it does in the Stock Market also Has nothing to do with any News or how's ya father Although they will make it appear it does Even if it doesn't make sense. They know 90% of traders have no idea about Fundamentals anywyay. Wycoff Pattern also Consolidating along the bottom picking up stops like a Vacume Cleaner. Ultra Metre Bullish Green : ) Lets SeeLongby NZ_Shareman223
WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##Longby InvestingScope8
The Overlooked Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Inflation Everyone talks about higher CPI when crude is up, but ignores it when prices drop. Right now, lower crude oil is actually helping to soften inflation and weaken the dollar. Keep an eye on the neckline around $70—but it might not be easy to break.by ew-forecast5
Short Term Elliott Wave Structure in Oil (CL_F) Favors DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave in Oil (CL_F) shows incomplete Elliott Wave bearish sequence from 04.12.2024 high. Down from there, wave 1 ended at 76.15 like the 1 hour chart below shows. Rally in wave 2 unfolded in a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 78.05 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 77.68. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 80.63 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. US Oil has resumed lower in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 76.39 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 77.52. The CL_F then nested lower with wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 76.62. Wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 77.34. The commodity extended lower in wave (iii) towards 72.48 and wave (iv) ended at 73.69. Wave (v) lower is still developing. As market stays below 73.69 high, we are calling for one more low to wave (v) of ((iii)) and wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Once wave ((iii)) ended, expect near term rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as wave ((iv)) for further downside.by Elliottwave-Forecast4
Crude Oil Price Susceptible to Test of February LowThe price of oil may attempt to test the February low ($71.41) as it falls for the fourth consecutive day. Crude Oil Price Outlook Crude extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards oversold territory, and the oscillator may show the bearish momentum gathering pace should it push 30 for the first time this year. A break/close below the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of oil towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with a breach below the February low ($71.41) opening up the January low ($69.28). Nevertheless, failure to break/close below the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may keep the RSI above 30, with a move above $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area on the radar. --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com by FOREXcom3
Thursday VooduWell we are in a sell program and we have respected this 1hr fvg. So the remit is pretty simple for NY open.. Wait for a retracement for bearish prices. The Bias is Bearish with the Magnet's as Price tragets for the weekly objectives.Shortby IamThattrader113
Crude OilThis is not a trading signal, its an opinion, if you copy it, its on your own risk. Position 1- Long Position 2- Short Oil is in down trend on the daily and 4 hours, but there is a pull back to the previous support that has became Resistance to retest it and then we will see continuation to down trend to the levels around $70.40 is the next support level.Longby sahli073
CRUDE OIL (CL): Weak Momentum Likely to Persist?Assalamualaikum wbt and Good Day to fellow traders! From my rather simplistic view, the overall two-hour time frame (TF2hr) chart seems to indicate that the prices for WTI Light Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) could go further south at least for the time being. The further potential weakness is being reinforced by the significant key moving averages (in this case Exponential Moving Averages or EMAs ) - the EMA50 (blue line) and EMA200 (amber line) - in which the Black Gold sits below those lines since April 17, 2024. Despite several rebound attempts, the commodity has continued to slide downwards making some notable Lower Lows and Lower Highs until recently last Friday while trading range-bound in between. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also flashed a cautious sell signal last Friday following a cross over. On top of that, the obvious rejection at the 76.03-76.30 key level could possibly suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play. However, a bullish reversal may occur should the MACD crossover take place above the 0 line with the help of a significant volume, as well as the two EMAs crossing up. Wallahu a'lam. #cl #crudeoil #wti #blackgold #exponentialmovingaverage #ema #macdby rahman_daros3
CL1According to Technical Analysis in my opinio price can go down to Original ConsolidationShortby andy4444_2
Heading back to $76 Too oversold at the moment we’re heading back to $76 and possibly beyond before end of Summer. Culminating in a crash in Q4 along with worsening RecessionLongby tirsobust1
Crude Monday Drab Bias and ForecastI am HTF bearish on Crude OiL I have PD arrays marked out that should be respected if market was to retrace and take some BSL. The targets for today are Lows marked out. Pretty simple. Stay bellow 1hr fvg and 1hr -OB = BEARISH Close above the 1hr FVG start looking for short term BSLShortby IamThattraderUpdated 1
light oilI expect a corrective movement for oil up to the $74 range. If the price returns above 82 dollars, this analysis will be invalid.Shortby arezaeianUpdated 2
CL1 WeeklyThesre is a Wolfe Wave and Price hugging that Extended 1-4 Line in future is Possible . For price to pop above that Channel to 110.00 Area is also possible . All my Price levels are based on Fib's . So we could be locked in this Channel for a few Months by johnmadUpdated 117
USOIL is Under PressureWTI crude oil futures are experiencing a downturn, currently priced at $79.37 per barrel, marking a 0.48% decrease. This decline is attributed to the global economic challenges that are negatively impacting the demand forecast. Similarly, Brent crude has seen a reduction in price, now at $83.88 per barrel. The economic recovery in China is progressing slower than expected, and the anticipation of additional interest rate hikes is exacerbating concerns over economic growth, exerting further downward pressure on oil prices. In the United States, crude oil inventories have witnessed an increase of 3.4 million barrels in the previous week, contributing to the existing oversupply. The persistent risk of a recession continues to place significant stress on the oil market. Meanwhile, amidst these market conditions, option sentiment from the CME exchange suggests a robust support level at $75 for WTI futures in the nearest expiration series. This sentiment indicates a strong market belief that prices are unlikely to fall below this threshold, providing a measure of stability despite the current market volatility. For investors and market watchers, these indicators from the options market are a critical piece of the puzzle, offering insights into future price movements and trader expectations. Shortby ClashChartsTeamUpdated 2
Oil flow All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this professional advice.Longby THE_APIS_TRADER1
CL1! Oil Setup On The WeeklyCL1! is setting up nicely on the weekly time frame continunity with a hammer in place to indicate a possible reversal over the coming few weeks. RSI is sitting at 38.41 and MACD is falling. Let's watch to see when the MACD closes to show support of a continuation. The Slow Stochoctics indicator is beginning to cross to indicate a change. If nothing else we are beginning to reach a line of support here. Longby GlennTradingUpdated 6
Crude Steps and Forces- all rectangles are potential support/resistance with the last one blue being a probable exception - the 3 marked with dots levels can also become support/resistance, especially the first bottom blueish one, but they can also become like milestones levels or steps in the evolution of the price - the 2 green curves are also potential support/resistance acting as forces pushing the price up or down This snapshot considers the bullish scenario where the price remains above 66, with potential reversal patterns to occur near the red rectangle zone.by nenUpdated 1
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: In my weekly outlook I was bullish for 80 again, unless bears produced strong momentum below 76 and that was basically just on trading hour today where sold off for 232 ticks. 75 was the price I was talking about for weeks now and bears had a strong bear day down to 74. Depending on how you draw the bull trend line from the weekly/monthly chart starting in 2021-08, we are close enough or right on it. I do think bears surprised enough today to get another leg down because they clearly broke below the bear channel from last week. 72 is an obvious next target or the 2023 close at 71.6. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 70-77 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for is sideways movement and maybe a retest of the lower bear channel line around 74.5. Every touch of the 1h 20ema is violently sold and until that changes, bulls have no arguments on their side. They need to keep it above 74 or we will probably see 72 fast. Invalid below 74 bear case: Bears did enough damage today to make bulls very cautious. Breaks below a bear channel with accelerated selling are not that common so it’s a strong breakout. No one knows where most algo’s draw the big bull trend line so we will probably find out over the next days. Right now it’s waiting for a pull-back to maybe the 15m or 1h 20ema where we wait for confirmation of another leg down. I got measured move targets between 70 and 72. short term: Sideways to down - I wait for a pull-back or another strong momentum sell medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this tomorrow or Wednesday trade of the day: Selling while the bar 10 was forming. I told my room to sell at 15:39 and we were short from 75.92 for +90 and immediately after another short on the bounce for +50.Shortby priceactiontds1
Event-Driven Strategy using WTI Weekly OptionsNYMEX: WTI Futures ( NYMEX:CL1! ) and WTI Weekly Options ( GETTEX:LO5 ) OPEC+, the coalition of the world’s leading oil producers, will convene on June 2nd to decide production policy for the second half of the year. The powerful oil cartel consists of 13 OPEC members and 9 nonmember participants, and together produces about 59% of global oil production. This amounted to 48 million barrels per day (mn b/d) in 2022, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Many analysts expect OPEC+ to continue the voluntary cut of 2.2 mn b/d, due to expire at the end of June. This voluntary cut, introduced in November 2023, adds to 3.6 mn b/d of production cut that have reduced the members’ crude output by about 5.8 mn b/d, or about 5% of global supply, since November 2022. I consider the move an attempt to shore up prices against higher US oil production and an uncertain economic outlook in China. OPEC+ meeting is a significant event in the global crude oil market. We could liken its importance to that of the Federal Reserve meetings for equities and bonds. The group’s decision could tilt the balance of supply and demand one way or the other. Here are three possible outcomes: • No change: To renew existing cuts of 2.2 mn b/d through the end of the year. • Additional cuts. This would reduce global crude oil supply. • Ease of cuts. This would release more oil to the global market. The oil market may stay calm if the OPEC+ decision conforms to investor expectations of no change. A surprise announcement of additional cuts would likely send oil prices skyrocketing. But any pullback from current cuts could sink oil prices down. This provides a good setting for event-driven trading strategies. Monitoring Crude Oil Market Sentiment Real Time For a trading strategy to work, the trader needs to understand the market sentiment ahead of the actual event. While analysts give out opinions, it is the investors who put money in their mouth. Therefore, for unbiased decision making, we should look into trading data. The CME Group OPEC Watch Tool is a great analytical tool for crude oil traders. It uses NYMEX WTI crude oil option prices to calculate the probabilities of certain outcomes from the nearest weekly and monthly options that expire around the OPEC meeting. In essence, it uses actual trading data, and go the extra mile to transform it into useful insights. This valuable tool is free and can be accessed via CME Group website. The title chart includes a snapshot of CME Group OPEC Watch Tool. As of May 26th: • OPEC Watch Tool expects a 79.1% probability of no change; • There is a 18.8% probability of ease of cuts: • Additional cuts remain a remote probability, at 2.2%. I would like to point out that the market often exhibits overly pessimistic or overly optimistic sentiment. OPEC Watch Tool shows the collective wisdom of crude oil options traders. However, the trades are not scientific forecast. Market sentiment could change very rapidly. With this in mind, we need to closely monitor it with real-time trading data. If, through independent analysis, a trader establishes an opinion very different to what the market suggested, he or she may express it with a trade position and wait for the market to correct its faulty assumptions. Trading with NYMEX WTI Weekly Options We could consolidate the three possible OPEC+ decisions into two: • Within Expectation. No changes. • Exceeding Expectation. More cuts or less cuts. Investors expect OPEC+ to maintain its current cuts. If that turns out to be the case, oil prices may not move much following the announcement. If a trader hosts this view, how could he or she turn it into a trade strategy? The trader could consider selling short-dated out-of-the-money (OTM) WTI crude oil options. The July WTI futures contract ($CLN4) settled at $77.80 a barrel last Friday. Selling OTC strikes on WTI weekly options would enable the trader to collect an upfront premium. The first Friday after the OPEC+ announcement is June 7th. The weekly options ($LO1M4) will last only 12 days before its expiration. How do we select options strikes to sell? There are really no rules of thumbs. For illustration purposes, let us pick an OTC call strike approximately $5 above current market price, and a put strike about $5 below. • Last Friday, the 82.75 call strike settled at 17 cents. Each WTI weekly option contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels. Therefore, the trader would collect $170 premium for selling 1 call. • The $72.75 put strike settled at 29 cents. The trader would get $290 for selling 1 put. • If the trader sells 1 call and 1 put, he or she could collect $460 for just 12 days. Words of warning for options sellers: • CME Group requires options sellers to deposit $6,001 margin for each July contract as the time of writing. Therefore, this strategy requires an investment of $12,002 for both call and put. • If OPEC+ acts as expected and the oil market stays calm, the trader would get the margin deposit back when the options expire worthless. • However, if oil prices move up above the call strike, the trader could incur a loss, potentially wiping out all the margin deposit, and probably more. • If oil prices drop below the put strike, the trader would also experience a loss. If the trader holds an opposite view, he or she could buy the OTC call or put options, depending on which direction the trader is leaning towards. For a small upfront premium, the trader could establish a position on crude oil, and potentially collect a big payout if OPEC+ changes heart. For those who are uncertain of which way OPEC+ would go, but are convinced that they would change courses, traders could buy both OTC calls and OTC puts at the same time. This is an example of options strangle strategy. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Longby JimHuangChicago12