Crude has been performing as anticipated over the past few days - The stars were aligning for this rally with Seasonals, Extreme Producer Merchant buying activity, Wave Formation Symmetry, and wickedly oversold technical conditions all converging to the same conclusion. I call this a state of "Unity" and it's when we have the highest odds of a successful campaign....
Can there be any worse news for Crude? Every major report is in and discounted I would think.
technical are pointing higher. Dennis Gartmen flip-flop to bearish. Enough for me to institute a small long here.
Trader Vic's simple but effective 1-2-3 Trend Indicator is a great tool to add to your trading toolbox. We are seeing this setup take place right now in CL.
It goes as follows:
1 - Break a Trend line that has been in force - CL did this last night with multiple hourly bars closing over the Down trend line connecting the highs from May24 through Friday.
2 -...
CL is upon a very seasonally bullish time. Since 2000, Crude has sported a 62% winning % from July-Aug. With the PBOC pumping liquidity, the early signs of a tactical rally across the commodity complex appears at hand.
The Producer/Merchant Category in the Disaggregated COT report scores a 100% on a 18m basis, and they continued adding longs into last weeks...
Crude may bounce if a probe below yesterday's low will fail to follow through
Bullish Butterfly Pattern in December Crude contract:
1.27*XA @ 42.85
2*BC Projection @ 42.90
1.27*AB=CD @ 42.98
<- Structure on the left
Primary targets @ 48.83 & 52.50
Fundamentally and technically not looking a great picture at the moment for WTI - but Im sure politics will intervene somewhere along the way! $39/ $40 looking a real possibility in the short term then $37? Sitting on Fibonacci resistance around $43's looking like its thinking where to go next! Upside support at $47.
Today, he attempted to break the short multiday channel by trying am hourly entry long.
Attempt immediately aborted with two red candles that started an entry short followed by tp1 short
Short multiday channel confirmed
This a graph of the oil long trend. If OPEC and non-Opec keeps pressuring on production, oil will have further to fall maybe low 30's. Let's wait and see if this thing settles down. We are in a period of the year when pressure appears for oil. By the end of the year ultra bull on commodities.
CL1 in April we expecting volatility to increase considerably and to stop in area 39.50 - 38.50 - there are we set our pending buy orders with reward ratio 1:5 till end of Q2 2017.
