$NYMEX:CL1! trading plan for 15 May 2024NYMEX:CL1! is shaping up for a possible long position. Wait for the oscillators to confirm the bullish reversal and buy on bounce from the support trend line or the on a bounce from S1 77.34. Revisit of 79.20 as a possible target. Longby MChaoticUpdated 1
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias. We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says. Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective. If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.Shortby IamThattraderUpdated 6
Crude Futures Break Below The 200-DMATechnical Momentum Weakens Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 200-day moving average at $77.94. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.57 daily. API Inventories Decline API Inventory has tightened recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a drawdown of 3.1 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 459 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 44 million barrels. An Expanding Economic Tailwind The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Shortby Phil_Blue_Line1
Monday Crude Oil ForecastWith no news injections today I would stay on the side lines. We have Daily Wick level in conjunction with a 1hr FVG which if Crude Oil is substantially bearish should respect leading upto NY open and CME open. The overall bias for me is still bearish with weekly ssl in the lower half of the charts marked with a magnet. This is the draw and what I will be waiting for / a setup to form. You do have to stay dynamic however as the Daily candle on Friday took BSL inside of a Daily FVG. This is respecting the bias. EQH's where left in its wake so if the 1hr fvg and Daily wick is closed above on the 1hr TF we should start to consider that the market has other short term plans. Stay Dynamic and if your bias doesn't match you can always stay out of the market! Money preservation is very important. GLGT- ;)Shortby IamThattraderUpdated 2
Options Blueprint Series: Pre and Post OPEC+ WTI Options PlaysIntroduction The world of crude oil trading is significantly influenced by the decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These meetings, which often dictate production levels, can lead to substantial market volatility. Traders and investors closely monitor these events, not only for their immediate impact on oil prices but also for the broader economic implications. In this article, we explore two sophisticated options strategies designed to capitalize on the volatility surrounding OPEC+ meetings, specifically focusing on WTI Crude Oil Futures Options. We will delve into the double calendar spread, a strategy to exploit the expected rise in implied volatility (IV) before the meeting, and the transition to a long iron condor, which aims to profit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments. Understanding the Market Dynamics OPEC+ meetings are pivotal events in the global oil market, with decisions that can significantly influence crude oil prices. These meetings typically revolve around discussions on production quotas, which directly affect the supply side of the oil market. The anticipation and outcomes of these meetings create a fertile ground for volatility, especially in the days leading up to and immediately following the announcements. Implied Volatility (IV) Dynamics Pre-Meeting Volatility: In the days leading up to an OPEC+ meeting, implied volatility (IV) often rises. This increase is driven by market uncertainty and the potential for significant price moves based on the meeting's outcome. Traders buy options to hedge against or speculate on the potential price movements, thereby increasing the demand for options and pushing up IV. Post-Meeting Volatility: After the meeting, IV can either spike or drop sharply, depending on whether the outcome aligns with market expectations. An unexpected decision can cause a significant IV spike due to the new uncertainty introduced, while a decision in line with expectations can lead to a sharp drop as the uncertainty dissipates. Strategy 1: Double Calendar Spread The double calendar spread is a sophisticated options strategy that can potentially take advantage of rising implied volatility (IV) leading up to significant market events, such as the OPEC+ meeting. This strategy involves establishing positions in options with different expiration dates but the same strike price, allowing traders to profit from the increase in IV while managing risk effectively. Structure Long Legs: Buy longer-term call and put options. Short Legs: Sell shorter-term call and put options. The strategy typically involves setting up two calendar spreads at different strike prices (one higher and one lower), thus the term "double calendar." Rationale The rationale behind this strategy is that the longer-term options will experience a greater increase in IV as the event approaches, inflating their premiums more than the shorter-term options. As the short-term options expire, traders can realize a profit from the difference in premiums, assuming IV rises as expected. Strategy 2: Transition to Long Iron Condor As the OPEC+ meeting date approaches and the double calendar spread positions reach their peak profitability due to the elevated implied volatility (IV), it becomes strategic to transition into a long iron condor. This shift aims to capitalize on potential volatility changes and capture profits from the expected IV drop. Structure Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options from the double calendar spread. Setting Up the Long Iron Condor: Sell new OTM call and put options with the same expiration date as the long legs of the double calendar spread. The result is a position where the trader holds long options closer to the money and short options further out, creating a long condor structure. Rationale The rationale for transitioning to a long iron condor is to capture profits from a potential decrease in IV after the OPEC+ meeting. Practical Example To illustrate the application of the double calendar spread and the transition to a long iron condor, let's walk through a detailed example using hypothetical WTI Crude Oil Futures prices. Double Calendar Spread Setup 1. Initial Conditions: Current price of WTI Crude Oil Futures: $77.72 per barrel. Date: One week before the OPEC+ meeting. 2. Long Legs: Buy a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.32. Buy a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.38. 3. Short Legs: Sell a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.05. Sell a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.09. Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Transition to Long Iron Condor 1. Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options just before they expire @ 0.01 (assuming they are OTM on Friday May-31, before the market closes for the weekend). 2. Setting Up the Iron Condor: Sell a call option with a strike price of $82, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.13. Sell a put option with a strike price of $73, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.18. 0.11 and 0.17 are estimated values assuming WTI Crude Oil Futures remains fairly centered around 77.50 and that IV has risen into the OPEC+ meeting weekend. Transitioning from the Double Calendar to the Long Iron Condor would be done on Friday May-31. 3. Resulting Position: You now hold a long call at $81, a long put at $74, a short call at $82, and a short put at $73, forming a long iron condor. The risk of the trade has been reduced by half (assuming the real fills coincide with the estimated values above) from 0.56 to 0.27 = $270 with a potential for reward of up to 0.73 (1 – 0.27) = $730. This practical example demonstrates how to effectively implement and transition between the double calendar spread and the long iron condor to navigate the volatility surrounding an OPEC+ meeting. Importance of Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial when implementing options strategies, particularly around significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting. The volatility and potential for sharp market moves require traders to have robust risk management practices to protect their capital and ensure long-term success. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure Undefined risk exposure occurs when traders have no clear limit on their potential losses. This can happen with certain options strategies that involve selling naked options. To avoid this, traders should always define their risk by using strategies that have built-in risk limits, such as spreads and condors. Precise Entries and Exits Making precise entries and exits is critical in options trading. This involves: Entering trades at optimal times to maximize potential profits. Exiting trades at predetermined levels to lock in gains or limit losses. Adjusting trades based on market conditions and new information. Additional Risk Management Practices Diversification: Spread risk across different assets and strategies. Position Sizing: Allocate only a small percentage of capital to each trade to avoid significant losses from a single position. Continuous Monitoring: Regularly review and adjust positions as market conditions evolve. By adhering to these risk management principles, traders can navigate the complexities of the options market and mitigate the risks associated with volatile events like OPEC+ meetings. Conclusion Navigating the volatility surrounding significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting requires strategic planning and effective risk management. By implementing the double calendar spread before the meeting, traders can capitalize on the anticipated rise in implied volatility (IV). Transitioning to a long iron condor after the meeting allows traders to benefit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments or price stabilization. These strategies, when executed correctly, offer a structured approach to managing market uncertainties and capturing profits from both pre- and post-event volatility. The key lies in precise timing, appropriate strike selection, and diligent risk management practices to protect against adverse market movements. By understanding and applying these sophisticated options strategies, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of the crude oil market and leverage the opportunities presented by OPEC+ meetings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv0
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE Long above $80.00 Per Barrel...?NYMEX:CL1! "If you train hard, you'll not only be hard, you'll be hard to beat." -Herschel Walker Oil has been struggling to Break above $80.00 Per Barrel roughly this whole month of MAY and this week we could actually see buyers gain strength and get over the hump... However that is a long shot prediction! Now if this actually does come to pass then this is what I'll need to see in order to go LONG... 1) Price is currently trading around a 4Hr Supply Zone. ** I want to see buyers push price up N break the supply zone and continue towards the HTF S&R Zone.... 2) We have a HTF Descending eR/LQ Trendline that I want to Buyers Breakout N push towards $80.00 Per Barrel... I would like to see a retest of the Failed 4Hr Supply Zone and eR/LQ trendline for buyers to gain more strength for pushing towards our target... 3) Now if we can get the sequence of events to take place that I stated above, Then we will wait for the break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone... I want to see confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF N Below to establish conviction in the move from buyers to enter LONG.... 4) Now if we can get the Break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone then I'll Enter LONG and Target the break of the 4Hr Supply Zone price ($81.10 Per Barrel) 110 pts to be exact in our favor... Ill set my stop just below the S&R Zone EQ Level giving me roughly around a 2.7RR.... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions Longby TreyHighPwrUpdated 1
Oil - BUY Out of Bounds FTLMA Bands at bottom band Retrace Over Extended Double Bounce on Support Aggressive Entry Passive Entry After pull back into Fair Value Gap + Continuation Nice Order Block Below Has been pushing down all week really Could well be heading for that Lets See : )Longby NZ_SharemanUpdated 1
A Bottom In Crude Oil?Crude Oil (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 77.57, down 1.09 WTI Crude Oil futures are showing renewed life this morning, trading nearly 2% from the low through Asia’s open. In fact, commodities broadly were hit sharply during that timeframe. Soft economic data and hawkish Fed speak have been a headwind this week, but less of a draw than expected on yesterday’s weekly EIA inventory report and news that Russia overproduced in April brought additional market pressures. Have we hit peak pessimism? WTI Crude Oil futures tested and responded to a significant area of support overnight, potentially building out the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders going back to May 8th. As today’s session unfolds into the final day of the week, we believe continued price action above our Pivot and point of balance at 78.08, the .382 retracement back to the 80.11 high, will help invite fresh buying. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 78.33-78.47***, 78.86-79.04***, 79.34**, 80.09-80.11***, 81.28*** Pivot: 78.08 Support: 77.35-77.60***, 76.63-76.82**, 75.70-76.46****, 74.66-74.70** *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. by Blue_Line_Futures0
Light Crude OilLight crude oil, with the fall of several months and the price correction, is now close to the main support and the past purchases made by investors. who have placed an order will approach and make a loss, and by following their analytical and investment path, you can achieve a good profit in the long term. SashacharkhchianLongby sashacharkhchian0
Can Crude Oil Futures Breakout?Technical Momentum Weakens Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting to the 200-day moving average at $77.55. The technical perspective shows momentum studies recovering from oversold territories, while the 9-day moving average is trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range declines to $1.46 daily. API Inventories Rise API Inventory has increased recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a build of 2.5 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 457 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 475 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Midwest show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 43 million barrels. An Expanding Economic Tailwind The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. Traders will remain focused on inflation data, inventory productions, and the direction of economic data. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.by Phil_Blue_Line0
Crude Wednesday Pre NewsSo this is the forecast for Crude pre 1030est news. I'm favouring some BSL to be taken if the 1hr FVG gets disrespected. With 1hr fvg above and the BSL that is pointed out with the arrows. If we show rejection from the 1hfvg we are currently near then PDL will be the target. With news there is no certainty. Overall I am HTF bearish however a sweep on BSL could be on the cards today. by IamThattrader0
Buy oil stocksBuy oil stocks as described in the analysis provided and follow the steps specified in Stop Loss and Take ProfitLongby aboubakkrhajjamielidrissi0
$80 Headwinds, Any Hope for Crude Oil?Crude Oil (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 79.30, down 0.28 WTI Crude Oil futures started the week unenthusiastically with a failure at the psychological $80 mark that aligns with a key .382 retracement and fell short of pinging the 50-day moving average. OPEC+ instability was downplayed after the death of the Iranian President on Sunday, while prices have been in a downtrend since peaking on geopolitical tensions through mid-April, and seasonality concerns persist after the Memorial Day holiday. While we still see value against our critical area of support highlighted below, a continued test erodes confidence. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 78.59-78.76**, 78.99*, 79.35-79.67**, 80.09-80.11***, 81.28*** Pivot: 78.25 Support: 77.65-77.86***, 77.26**, 75.70-76.36**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. by Blue_Line_Futures0
CL1! Looks like a BUY to me Wycoff pattern generally quite reliable I'd say 80% Just had quite a big pull back by NZ_Shareman1
[Commodity] Crude Oil Buy IdeaNote - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems. ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivativesLongby Amit_Ghosh1
Crude Oil Weekly Analysis- 20th to 24th May 2024 Over view As per my previous weekly analysis, Crude oil had great ride from beginning of this year and paused from previous month. Fortunately this was necessary for having further movement. We can consider the previous month process was retracement thus by expecting further movement in upcoming weeks. Any small bounce from this level would be great bullish indications for good week ahead. Weekly TF Price has exactly reacted at 0.382 Fibonacci level which is good sign of bullish continuation. Good green candle formation after doji formation & crossed 50 EMA Day TF Trend: Upward range with 3 consecutive support(HL 01, HL 02, HL 03). Now HL04 has been created and rejected at same level by creating double bottom. Inside candle breakout has been found after creating Doji & Bullish hammer. Price has been rejected from crucial key level 0.5 Level rejected in Fibonacci Buy: Entry 01:6691 Entry 02: 6962 Final Target expected: 7235 Direct Gapup/Gapdown entry should be avoided Get confirmation from any of the leading indicators before entering trade Kindy comment below in case of any clarification required on this particular idea. Please follow for more ideas MCX:CRUDEOIL1! Longby kiranpatilblt1140
Short OILMaduro will lose the venezuelan election and liberate lots of supply to the market. USA will ease Venezuela sanctions.Shortby Marcos_Camacho0
5/12 | $CLNot too much to update here as we are still stuck in a range as expected. We got a new low last Wednesday with strong buyside reaction. Very trappy PA. This week, I would ideally like to see buyside liquidity @79.96 get taken and buy the retracement to catch a move higher. Area of interest below @77.85.by StonksSociety0
BUY CL (CRUDE OIL)BUY CL at the 79.15 or the 78.00 price levels, going back up to the 90.00 to 95.00 price and beyond.Longby pstock123Updated 1
CL1 WeeklyThesre is a Wolfe Wave and Price hugging that Extended 1-4 Line in future is Possible . For price to pop above that Channel to 110.00 Area is also possible . All my Price levels are based on Fib's . So we could be locked in this Channel for a few Months by johnmadUpdated 116
Crude Futures Break Below The 200-DMATechnical Momentum Weakens Crude Oil futures are declining in 2024 after correcting down to the 200-day moving average at $77.94. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining into oversold territories, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day. DMI- is above DMI +, indicating that the market is in a correction phase, while the Average True Range firms to $1.57 daily. API Inventories Decline API Inventory has tightened recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a drawdown of 3.1 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 459 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Mid-West show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 44 million barrels. An Expanding Economic Tailwind The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased recently; however, there is the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Shortby Phil_Blue_Line0