oil and silverWhere #CrudeOil goes... #Silver goes! Watch for those continuation breakout lines. Longby Badcharts3
Buy sell is mind game Buy sell is mind game Marke up trand buy Market down trand sell Market sideways 3 type of market Daliy bassis Market up trad ce buy by joyfulMeerkat90270
Decoding the Dance of Oil, Inflation, and Changing Markets"Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization, fueling progress and shaping the course of nations." By ChartScope Published on August 25, 2023 Consider the shock of paying significantly more for your daily fuel needs. This not only affects your driving expenses but can ripple into higher costs for essentials like groceries and clothing. Enter the role of light crude oil, a behind-the-scenes player that holds more sway than meets the eye, influencing our economy in profound ways. Oil's Ripple Effect on Spending Light crude oil serves as a building block for everyday products and fuels. Lower oil prices usually translate to more affordable transportation and manufacturing, giving us a break in costs. Yet, when oil prices surge, a ripple effect ensues. As production and transportation expenses rise, businesses often pass these costs on to consumers. This chain reaction can trigger the already-known inflation, leading to steep price increases across the board. Market Shifts in the Spotlight Now, imagine the stock market as a roller coaster. It's been on a thrilling ascent for some time, but murmurs of a slowdown grow louder. The ride might become bumpier, leaving investors on edge. They start exploring alternative avenues to safeguard their investments and generate returns. Unveiling the Commodity Connection Enter commodities, like gold, crops, and even oil. These tangible assets retain value even amidst economic turbulence. As inflation starts to climb, people often turn to commodities as a haven for their money. Charting a Path Forward But let's analyze the data a bit more. My technical analysis indicates that light crude oil might dive below the $64 mark this year or the first half of next year, which could diverge from the narrative presented by Truflation's recent article. They posit that the turning point in CPI data has been reached, with growth ahead. However, with CPI potentially rising further in August and September, my analysis could show a decline by year-end or the first half of next year due to the dynamics of the oil market. Analyzing the Charts: Weekly Perspective After the prolonged correction phase following the 2008 financial crisis, 2020 marks a turning point for light crude oil. Elliott Wave Theory, a complex analytical tool, identifies an impulse phase followed by a correction phase. Currently, the chart appears to be stuck in the correction phase of the second wave. However, this correction is not yet complete based on the Fibonacci retracement, this is ideally within the Golden Pocket - the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $56.07 and the 65% Fibonacci level at $52.22. The price could also go lower to test the upper side of the multi-year correction channel (blue). The maximum targeted price would be $35.84 or the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Note that these chart assumptions are based on technical analysis, not immediate news, which often occurs at event time. Looking at the price of oil relative to the stock market, this could be a turning point for both stocks and commodities. Multi-year oil price targets could be headed for $200, while equity markets could drop significantly as inflation hits a new high. Predicting time frames is difficult, but as mentioned earlier, the trend for light crude is downward. The chart below details the specific correction targets in more detail. In Summary Oil's influence is far-reaching, affecting inflation and the broader economy. Market shifts and the growing importance of commodities underscore the evolving financial landscape. As a technical analyst, my charts suggest a potential conflict with current CPI predictions, hinting at a different trajectory due to oil fluctuations. Navigating these interconnected dynamics requires vigilance, understanding, and an eye on both data and market trends. Technical Analysis - Not Financial Advice Remember that the insights shown here are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I will be looking at indicators, chart patterns, and potential trends. To make informed decisions, it is important to understand the broader market landscape. Stay informed, stay alert, and remember that this is not financial advice.Shortby ChartScope3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL reached the target zone..Crude continues performing as anticipated. It reached today our target zone while showing ST overbought condition, be prepared for a profit taking wave in the coming sessions.by gentlemanlb3
CL Long Term AnalysisAccording to my analysis Crude Oil will go up and touch 100$ to 107$ range of previous year Pin bar level of Fibo 50 to 61% and bounce back down. this time find only buying opportunity till market touch the 100$. keep watching CL for next move.Longby Best_Trading_Setup0
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari4
CRUDEOIL short Short crudeoil from this level expecting around the two to 2.5% down side from hereShortby KDMRR2
Crude could retest then ripI understand some technicals are bullish right meow, although I don’t trust buyer supper after a rip like this… and here’s why. After breaking the uptrend, all attempts to breakout and back into bullish territory we’re rejected. And market makers pushed the closing price neatly back under key levels before each candle closed. I chose to sell 500 barrels after watching the main candle (on the hourly) touch the ceiling and pullback to close under the trend line. All within a few moments of the hourly candle closing. I suspect this created some confusion and sucked in both buyers and sellers. Great set up all around. Got me to bite on it. Interesting side note, news articles are yapping about all the supply chain issues and cuts… Driving the price up. Although, few countries may be holding back a few barrels, with restrictions also helping create this “supply chain issue” to pump the market… restrictions, new regulations, new cuts, blah blah blah… bigger question is when are these, somewhat grey area reserves being introduced to the market ? And how drastically will this affect the price ? An instantaneous flood of millions of barrels will dilute the market and fluctuate prices dramatically. The big question is when ? And at what price do they want to introduce all these barrels ? I’m long near the 84.75 I’d like to see 92 afterwards… but who knows when the market will be diluted by these sideways ass hush hush reserves that no one’s making a big deal about. They bought them for cheap because of the war and restrictions.. and are going to sell them high and ride the diluted market back down to new lows. And, Rinse repeat. Same old same old. Anyways, quick rant over. Patiently waiting to see how this opens, Hopefully it doesn’t pop up on me. Not advice. Take this with a grain of salt. Do you homework. Cheers, GLHFBS Longby ImminentDanger0
my view about crudeAs I can see there is rounding pattern on crude oil. that can work like support. now i am not giving support and resistance here because it is in curving pattern. All of these are learning purpose and not recommendation of buying or selling.by jangidvijendra776
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari2
Huge close for Oil Oil looks good, Role out of a long term resistance holding it back since Nov 22. First time it’s closed over on 4Hr and Daily. Not sure what is in store when this opens… waiting for a signal. Longby ImminentDanger0
Crude Oil Rips Higher on Tight InventoriesTechnical Momentum Strengthens Crude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market we have seen since July may have just been catching its breath in August and will make another run at new contract highs in September. EIA Inventories remain tight EIA Inventory tightness remains, indicating a tighter supply picture with current EIA inventories sitting at 423 million barrels versus the five-year average of 438 million barrels for this time period. The real stress remains in the Mid-West, where Cushing stocks recorded their fourth weekly decline in the past five, showing 29 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 35 million barrels. Global Demand Remains Firm Global demand has strengthened with the resiliency behind the U.S. economy and supportive measures from China (the world's second-largest economy). Exports from Saudi Arabia have plunged in August, leaving upside momentum to continue in September. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Longby Phil_Blue_Line220
$CL Bullish Monthly CloseThe monthly close for NYSE:CL indicates a bullish sentiment, accompanied by a consistent uptrend. Additionally, oil prices have concluded the month above the previous month's high, further affirming the positive outlook for the commodity.by AlgoTradeAlert2
USOILHi every body i will start my short sell on USOIL as i specified for you on my chart be aware of that ......around 94---95 dollar there is big reverse potential on oil price action....share this through your friends ... GOOOOOOOD LUUUUUUUCKShortby Logical_Markets2
Crude Oil - Breakout AlertNYMEX:CL1! Watch for a breakout in Crude Oil. An $84 handle on Crude could indicate a run back to the March '22 highs is en route. We've seen Crude stuck in the $65-$80 trading range for around 8 months now. While this base is being built, we see bullish divergence on a number of different oscillators. Weekly candles found support right around the 200 Week EMA and price is leading short EMAs above long EMAs. Weekly DMI shows that +DI just crossed bullish. Setting Fibonacci time-zones from Covid Lows to March '22 highs, we see the 1.618 time-zone perfectly coincides with the post-Covid low in May '23. Looking out to the 2.0 Fibonacci time-zone, we see the intersection of the time-zone, Schiff Median Line and March '22 highs at $130, in mid-January 2024. *Due to the crazy wick in April 2020, I used the weekly open/close as the origin point for the Schiff ML. If the upward trajectory continues, I'm getting long and hoping to ride price back to $130 or higher. Additional Screenshots below. Fat_Fat Longby Cousin_Fat_FatUpdated 2217
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon BeginsThe oil markets have been something of a puzzle to everyone on account of the fact that they range sideways for long periods of time, move a little bit, decapitate one side of the market, and then range again. One thing I've been sure of is that after doing $120 post-Ukraine War, and after WTI literally hitting $0.00 ( $-40 settlements lol) this certainly was not the top. And yet the problem is, this retrace has gone on for too long, with any and every rally increasingly being melted away and melted away. So it's not bullish, either. There's major geopolitical problems right now. One for the oil long is that because Russian oil is banned from the market by the International Rules Based Order, it doesn't mean that demand increased for futures-traded oil. Like, futures oil is primarily the United States' domain, and you know the leftists in Washington are short hard on oil because they sold off the SPR. How it works is you ban Russian oil from the futures controlled markets. The catch is that Russia still sells oil and sellers always have buyers. It means Russia sells at a discount or sells in exchange for rupees and yuan instead of petrodollars. Which means that demand from smaller countries and even bigger producers moves away from futures-traded oil and into Russia's pockets, which ultimately drives the price of commodities down. Geopolitically, because of the problems between Mainland China, its current ruler Xi Jinping, and the IRBO who operates via Taiwan as a proxy, anything can happen at any time. China is the biggest wildcard in the world because it's the only 5,000 year old country, has an enormous population with exceptional natural resources, and is ruled by a Communist Party that has become exceedingly inferior and weak. What this means is that the CCP can either fall or be overthrown literally any day. You won't hear it's going to happen days before on CNN and from The Washington Post. It will happen during Beijing business hours, which means the middle of the night in Manhattan. And if Xi is smart, he'll throw the Party away himself and weaponize the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa in order to protect himself and the country from "War With Taiwan," which really and always has meant the IRBO trying to take control of China via Taiwan Ukraine Maidan Revolution-style. Since this event is in the cards, if it unfolds, it means we'll see $200 oil and in a big hurry. Really, in a big hurry. But before this happens, it only makes sense to melt down all the early longs and liquidate some funds first. I have an open call on Taiwan Semiconductor where I believe this company, because of the Taiwan situation, is a super strong long hedge in the upcoming markets: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So, here's the call. All we have to do is look at the yearly candles and we can see that last year's price action was something of a yearly wick play. And so if we take this logic and we expect that after taking the high wicks, the low wicks are next, we wind up with some clarity on a set of monthly candles that is otherwise nigh indiscernible. Unfortunately for bulls, that means we're looking at prices that start with a 3-handle. Nobody ever believes it when you make a call like this, unless it happens to unfold right away. And while these markets might manifest in a faster way in the coming months, oil is still something of a landslide down and tractor pull up kind of market maker who employs sharp shakeouts along the way. Here's the thing: The OPEC production cut news in April was a canary in the coalmine, only because the rally was clearly a stop raid and failed. The May dump afterwards was a bearish harbinger of doom. It confirms the market makers are seeking continuously lower prices on higher time frames. On monthly bars and with recent price action, the $62~ level is supposed to be "support." But this support is likely to be broken if this rally fails. I believe this rally will certainly fail and we are about to have an extremely significant optimal short entry at roughly $79. If the theory is true, see how fast $61 comes. And after $61 is broken, perhaps it will actually be a breakaway runaway. If that really happens, then the targets are 3-handles in the $34 and $36 range. You better believe it.Shortby LordWrymouthUpdated 151529
$CL_F: Oil trend is up, could continueI've got an exciting trading opportunity lined up in the Crude oil futures market. If the price manages to break above $82.14 on Monday, it could signal a promising long entry. This could be a chance to ride the upward momentum and potentially reap substantial gains. Keep a close eye on the market's movement as Monday unfolds. In case things go as planned and the trade is triggered, here's the strategy: set your stop loss at $78.06 to protect against unexpected downturns. On the upside, aim for a take profit price of $87.80. We're looking to hit this target before the market closes on September 14th. The time frame offers an exciting window of opportunity to capture a strong potential profit. Remember, trading involves calculated risks. If the stop loss isn't hit before September 14th, you close the trade manually at whatever price it is then. If the target is hit at any point between the entry time and the close of Sep 14th consider exiting 75% of the position. And to play it safe, adjust your stop loss to match your long entry price. This way, you're securing gains and minimizing potential losses to keep a risk free trade going. Remember to either use AMEX:USO or front month futures for this (you could use the continuous futures chart for alerts, and trade AMEX:USO based on the cues given by it, or even use options on futures or on AMEX:USO itself). Never risk more than 1-2% on a given trade if the setup fails and you're stopped out or your options expire worthless. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.by IvanLabrieUpdated 4
Monthly Volume Structure :: CLV2023For the month of August, 70% of the October WTI Crude Oil volume occurred between $78.40 & $81.30. The majority of the volume occurred at $80.00. The late rally above $81.30 suggests that CLV2023 has rejected the August Value Area and is attracted to the liquidity level of $85.00, where the OI on the Options Calls exceed 12,000 contracts. Longby WiseguyFutures112
Crude Oil Price Reverses Ahead of 50-Day SMA to Eye Monthly HighThe price of oil seems to be tracking the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($77.50) as it reverses ahead of the moving average. Crude Oil Outlook The price of oil may extend the three-day rally as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, with a breach above the monthly high ($84.89) bringing $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar. Next area of interest comes in around $93.50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), which comes in just below the November 2022 high ($93.74), and the price of oil may exhibit a bullish trend as it seems to be tracking the positive slope in the moving average. However, failure to test the monthly high ($84.89) may push the price of oil back below the $82.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $82.60 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) area, with the next region of interest coming in around $78.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement). by FOREXcom3
Crude Oil futures could be ripe for a September rallyCrude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market we have seen since July may have just been catching its breath in August and will make another run at new contract highs in September. EIA Inventories Concerns EIA Inventory tightness remains, indicating a tighter supply picture with current EIA inventories sitting at 423 million barrels versus the five-year average of 438 million barrels for this time period. The real stress remains in the Mid-West, where Cushing stocks recorded their fourth weekly decline in the past five, showing 29 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 35 million barrels. Global demand remains firm Global demand has strengthened with the resiliency behind the U.S. economy and supportive measures from China (the world's second-largest economy). If we see a continued acceleration in growth, one strategy traders could consider is buying any correction below $80 with a target of $85 while risking a close below $77.50 on the October contract. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Longby Phil_Blue_Line110
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari6
OIL FUTURES, These FACTORS Will Move To The HUGE SELL-OUT!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about OIL FUTURES on the 2-day timeframe perspective. In the past times important changes have reached the fundamental landscape of the OIL FUTURES accessments. As inflation is coming down this simultaneously has an effect on the oil prices which pumped up last year and now the disinflation events are also leading to a decline in the price-action of the OIL FUTURES prices. Furthermore, main investment banks forecasts expect lower prices for OIL FUTURES as well, such as Goldman Sachs mentioning that despite huge supply still remaining in the market there is not enough demand to reach out to the supply indicating a drop in prices. Many investors are speculating on a drop in the prices and from a fundamental perspective the indications also show a high likelihood possibility that this will happen. From a technical perspective as marked in my chart OIL FUTURES are trading within this continued downtrend forming several lower highs and lower lows down the line engraining this major downtrend that established. In the most occasions a massive drop is going to follow up within such a determined and prolonged downtrend as soon as a certain amount of longs are triggered and stopped out this will lead to increased volatility movements and a sharper drop in the prices compared to what OIL FUTURES developed within the recent times. Also important to consider here is the 50-MA which is serving as a main resistance level combined with the protracted ABC-wave-count with the wave B forming a decisive triangle formation ready to breakout and form the main wave C. Thank you everybody for watching. It will be great when you support my idea and we move on forward together. VPby VincePrinceUpdated 6611
Oil is set to break up the price channel. Lucky this time?August could be an essential turning point for prices in this regard. This is undoubtedly the case on the WTI price chart. Early last week, buyers supported oil immediately after falling below $78, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the June lows (at $67) to the August highs (at $84). This correction has cleared the medium-term overbought condition, with the RSI on the daily chart moving back from over 70. The reversal to the upside also coincided with the formation of a golden cross, where the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day MA from below, impacting market sentiment. The actions of OPEC+ to extend existing restrictions and the recent additional cuts are helping to create a bullish picture on the chart. These efforts have been fruitful so far, as Russia and Saudi Arabia have increased gross oil revenues despite lower production, as higher prices have offset lower sales volumes.Longby FxProGlobal1