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Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2013)Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2013)Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2013)

Crude Oil Futures (Apr 2013)

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CLJ2013 trade ideas

OIL FUTURES Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 070923 Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 74/61.80% Chart time frame : B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NYMEX:CL1!
by fibonacci6180
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/10/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.97 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.   Upside, a weekly settlement above 81.97 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs. - For Monday, 72.82 can contain selling into later week, above which the 77.34 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested, possibly through the balance of July.   A daily settlement above 77.34 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out through the balance of the year and a significant upside continuation point into later year.   Downside Monday, closing below 72.82 signals 69.35 within several days, possibly another test of 67.08 by the end of next week, able to contain selling through next week and above which 77.34 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Crude Oil - Bearish On Oil? Saudis Made The US Cover Its Short.I've had a number of successful calls on crude oil, which you can find in my post history. In those calls, I had always been bearish on oil, anticipating a run to a 4-handle. However, I reassessed my prior assumptions when the MMs took out the Low Of The Year in quick order to start May. I haven't been particularly sure in the time that has passed, but between price action and some recent news, I now believe oil is set to reverse. The situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is very tense. The pandemic has taken a huge toll on the country, which the Party is not reporting to the world, and you can tell this if you look at their obviously bogus COVID death and infection stats published on major data aggregators. This matters because since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, there's become something of an alliance between the Saudis, Russia, China, and India, with many oil transactions no longer settling in the U.S. Petrodollar. So you have to be really careful trading right now with the geopolitical situation at hand. Everyone has flipped bullish on equities and is expecting a new parabolic run, but the situation is just as prime for a sharp and dramatic turnaround, which I reference in my recent call on the SPY ETF: SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears When it comes to China, Xi has the looming threat of having inherited Jiang Zemin and the CCP's persecution of Falun Gong, which targeted 100 million people and has even harvested their organs. Xi and the CCP also face the growing trend of the movement to return to China's traditional 5,000 year culture, which is the crown jewel, the magnum opus, of the whole world and all of human history. So the most important country in the world is very unstable, and you aren't hearing anything about what is going on. But the controllers know something is wrong and are scurrying about frantically, thinking about how they can take your stuff on the way down. So, my bearishness on oil has been based on the fact that the Biden Administration has drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, significant because although OPEC+ is a huge producer of oil, the US and its vassals, such as Canada, by far produce the most oil in the world. Washington selling the SPR is a short on the market by definition and they unloaded hard in the 90s and 80s, saying they wanted to buy back in the 60s. Yet the two times we've had oil in the 60s, they haven't rebought. I believe they intended to drive the market lower for longer and rebuy then. A few recent pieces of news came out. One is OPEC had a scheduled meeting in Vienna in early June, which they held in person, despite the next major meeting being in July. During that meeting, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg found themselves disinvited, while every other media did not. Moreover, on Friday The Washington Post stated that Saudi King MBS warned the Biden Administration it would inflict economic pain when the US complained about production cuts. The Saudis have teeth because they own Aramco, which is also stationed in the United States, and the Saudis buy arms from the military industrial complex. NATO and the US needs to have the Saudis not wanting to get rid of them if they are to have any chance of deposing Putin and taking Russia for the New World Order. It's been well known that OPEC+, of which the Saudis are the biggest producer by far, want higher prices and need $80-100 to continue to run a national surplus. The second biggest news is a June 9 announcement from the Department of Energy stating the US will replenish 6 million barrels of oil from the SPR. This means Washington is covering its shorts. Now, you'll complain, fairly so, that the Democratic Socialists of America have sold some 280 million barrels of oil from the SPR since Biden was inaugurated in 2021, and you're right. 6 million barrels is certainly a drop compared to what they've sold. However, a look at the EIA website puts the 6 million barrel figure into perspective: since November of '22, only 20 million barrels have been drained. I will repeat myself again: the market maker is covering its shorts and that means it's very immediately dangerous to be short on oil and oil companies. So, this is hard to go long on because the delta between $70 and the $63 low is 10%, and on futures at $1,000 PnL per $1 move per lot, that's a lot of "Ouching" as Abdulaziz has said for early comers. However, generally speaking a bottom is a bottom and that means there won't be a new low. Either way, it's up to you to figure out where to go long and when to go long and if you want to go long. The most immediate target, even in an ultimately bearish continuation scenario, is $85, and more specifically, $95. And you may very well see a 9 handle as early as August or September. The problem with short on oil is on the monthly: COVID hysteria was an ultimate bottom. If -$40 wasn't an ultimate bottom then you call your mom and ask her what an ultimate bottom could be and let us know in the comments. If you've got an ultimate bottom and no real highs were taken, the the market is aiming higher, and not lower. A breakdown of price here means that oil as an industry is not going to recover, but yet green energy is a fallacy and alternative energy sources are nowhere to be found, while worldwide crude supply is actually not particularly abundant anymore. So what fundamental story is supposed to be used to drive oil lower? A bunch of talking heads on Twitter complaining that oil is going lower? That doesn't move markets. Producers have to deposit actual oil to go bigly short because contracts settle in physical goods. Moreover, the price action in March before the big move down in May was really, really peculiar. You see it more clearly on the weekly: Like, $2 away from a breakaway gap is where it chose to dump and actually set a new low of the year? Really, to me, this says that since we haven't dumped anymore and now we're getting fundamentally extremely, extremely bullish news, that the target can only be $95. People, for whatever reason, tend to like to buy above highs and so they'll get bullish at $85 and $95. But why not get bullish at $70? Warren Buffet keeps buying OXY. Is he doing this because oil is on the verge of another 5 year bear market? If oil is going to pump, what does this mean for equities? What does it mean for the VIX? With what's going on in the world, what does it mean for the future? How long will the happy continue? It's really worth giving some sober thought to, and it's really worth cutting the furus and the propaganda outlets out of your information cycle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
10
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/7/23For Friday, 69.45 can contain session weakness, above which 72.81 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later next week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.27 within 1 - 2 more weeks.   Downside Friday, closing below 69.45 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain selling through next week and above which 77.27 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Will Crude Oil Price Track the 50-Day SMA?The price of oil trades above the 50-Day SMA ($71.36) as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from last week. Crude Oil Outlook The price of oil may attempt to retrace the decline from the June high ($75.06) as it registers a fresh weekly high ($72.34), with a break/close above $75.60 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) bringing the May high ($76.69) on the radar. However, the price of oil may track the negative slope in the moving average if it struggles to test the June high ($75.06), and failure to hold above the $70.00 (50% Fibonacci extension) to $70.60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region may push crude towards the $64.40 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/6/23For Thursday, 69.55 can contain session weakness, above which 72.80 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.20 within 1 - 2 more weeks.   Downside Thursday, closing below 69.55 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain weekly selling pressures and above which 77.20 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Exploring Seasonality in Crude Oil PricesWhat rises, must fall. What comes down, goes up again. This rings most true for crude oil prices. Both secular and seasonal trends are at play in crude oil prices. Demand for oil moves in tandem with global economic activities. Key secular trends impacting oil markets over this decade was covered in our previous paper . These range from falling demand from developed markets, and rising demand in emerging economies, among others. While secular trends unravel over a longer time, seasonal cyclical effects can be observed over a short term. This paper will explore consumption patterns driving annual seasonality in crude oil prices. In Part two of this paper, we will illustrate trading crude oil derivatives to harness opportunities arising from seasonality. CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CHAIN: AN OVERVIEW Gluts and shortages, economic growth and contractions, and geopolitics impact crude oil prices. Different events impact various segments of the supply chain. The global crude oil supply chain is complex and intricate. It can broadly be classified into Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream. Upstream and midstream sectors drive crude oil supply. Upstream outage or shortage affects available supply which are sometimes evened out by the midstream through adequate inventories. Downstream and midstream drives demand. End consumer demand is observed in distribution. Refineries adjust output based on their margins which in turn is derived from crude oil prices and refined product prices. WHAT DRIVES SEASONALITY? Seasonality in demand for refined products impact crude oil prices. Higher demand for refined products (gasoline, diesel, and kerosene) is observed in summer because of travel. While lower supply is caused by maintenance linked pauses in downstream during winter. Crude oil inventory shifts can be segmented into four phases, namely: (1) Inventory Build Up (Feb - May), (2) Summer Travel Spikes Demand (Jun - Aug), (3) Demand Shrinks & Supply Contracts (Sep - Nov), and (4) Winter led demand spike (Dec - Jan). This seasonality is evident in US crude oil inventory shifts as exhibited below. Impact of seasonality is not always directly apparent or predictable. Why? Crude oil is so deeply intertwined with global economics. Shocks, if any, can have an outsized impact on prices and volatility. Also, supply cuts from majors oil producers and GDP shifts in major consumers have jumbo effect on prices. Consequently, other factors moderate or nullify impact of seasonality. The below chart shows the average price behaviour of Crude oil from the start of each year over the past twenty (20) years by using CME front month crude oil futures price data from TradingView. Orange bars in the above chart represents average monthly price change measured over last twenty years. Meanwhile, the white bar shows monthly price change for the same period but after excluding the outliers. Outlier years include 2008 (global financial-crisis), 2020 (pandemic), and 2022 (Russia-Ukraine conflict). Crude prices go bullish on higher demand by refineries starting in March and continue to rise through the summer months as demand for refined products remains high driven chiefly by increased travel. However, by August, sufficient refined product inventories dampen demand. With refineries slowing for maintenance, crude demand declines leading to a moderation in price. Finally, a small uptick is observed in December as demand starts to rise again during peak winter. The average monthly returns for each month are displayed below. However, note that the standard deviation for these averages is non-trivial indicating that month-of-the-year effect on crude oil prices is uncertain and, in many cases, statistically insignificant. This conclusion is also arrived at based on various academic research papers. METHODS TO HARNESS CRUDE OIL SEASONALITY Three most common methods to harness gains from seasonality include: a. Futures (highest upside and highest downside), b. Call options (upside limited relative to futures and limited downside risk), and c. Call and/or Put Spreads (limited upside and limited downside). Traders can deploy options to express a directional view with unlimited upside and limited downside. In a long options position, the downside is limited to the premium paid. Conversely, a short position in options involves selling an option. This offers upside limited to the premium collected but exposed to unlimited downside. TRADE SET UP ILLUSTRATIONS From July until November, based on historical observations over the last twenty years, crude oil prices tend to fall. We could set up a trade using the December contract month of CME Micro Crude Oil Futures which expires on Nov 17th: 1. Short Futures: Short Futures position in MCL Dec 2023 contract (MCLZ3) at USD 70 per barrel with the anticipation that prices will fall by November. 2. Long Puts: Long Put options on MCLZ3 at a strike of USD 69 per barrel with a hypothetical options premium of USD 3 per barrel. 3. Bear Call Spread: Bear Call Spread with a net premium of USD 1 per barrel on MCLZ3 comprising of a short call option at a strike of USD 71 a barrel (collecting options premium of USD 5 per barrel) and a long call option at a strike of USD 73 a barrel (paying options premium of USD 4 per barrel). The Bear Call Spread profits a fixed amount equal to the net premium when both options expire out of the money. When only the short call options expires in the money, the position loses by having to pay the options buyer. However, when both options expire in the money the profit from the long option partially offsets this loss resulting in a capped downside. Each CME Micro Crude Oil Futures contract represents one hundred barrels of crude oil. Accordingly, the above three trade set ups are illustrated across various price scenarios as shown below. Please note that these illustrations do not include (a) transaction costs comprising of exchange trading and clearing costs and brokerage fees, and (b) capital costs associated with margins required for establishing these positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
3