CL Week of 13/08 to 17/08 2023CL in a go no go area Bet. 2 important VWAPs. Need to clear for one side or an other. Pls see video. Thank you.01:12by MacDadddy0
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari5
Short Dated Options to Deftly Manage Oil Market Shocks"Volatility gets you in the gut. When prices are jumping around, you feel different from when they are stable" quipped Peter L Bernstein, an American financial historian, investor, economist, and an educator. Crude oil prices are influenced by a variety of macro drivers. Oil market shocks are not rare events. They appear to recur at a tight frequency. From negative prices to sharp spikes in volatility, crude oil market participants "enjoy" daily free roller-coaster rides. Precisely for this reason, crude oil derivatives are among the most liquid and sophisticated markets globally. This paper delves specifically into weekly CME Crude Oil Weekly Options and is set out in three parts. First, what’s unique about short-dated options? Second, tools enabling investors to better navigate crude oil market dynamics. Third, a case study illustrating the usage of weekly crude oil options. PART 1: WHAT’S UNIQUE ABOUT CME CRUDE OIL WEEKLY OPTIONS? Macro announcements such as US CPI, China CPI, Fed rate decisions, Oil inventory changes and OPEC meetings drive oil price volatility. Sharp price movements can lead to premature stop-loss triggers. When prices gap up or gap down at open, stop orders perform poorly leading to substantial margin calls. Weekly options enable hedging against these risks with limited downside and substantial upside. Closer to expiration, options prices are sensitive to changes in the prices of the underlying. Small underlying price moves can have outsized value creation through short-dated options. Hedging with weekly options allows investors to enjoy large upside potential. Short duration vastly reduces the options premium burden. This high risk-reward ratio has made short-dated options popular among both buyers and sellers. The daily traded notional value of Zero-DTE options (Zero Days-To-Expiry, 0DTE) have grown to USD 1 Trillion. Among S&P 500 options, 0DTE options comprise 53% of the average daily volume (ADV), up from 19% a year ago. In 2020, CME launched Weekly WTI options with Friday expiry (LO1-5), offering robust, round-the-clock liquidity and enabling precise event exposure management at minimal cost. These weekly options are now the fastest growing energy products at CME with ADV growing 69% YoY with June 2023 ADV up 136% YoY. Building on rising demand, CME added weekly options expiring Monday and Wednesday. At any time, the four nearest weeks of each option are available for trading. Weekly options settle to the latest benchmark CL contract and like other CME WTI products, they are physically deliverable ensuring price integrity. Each weekly WTI options contract provides exposure to 1,000 barrels. Every USD 0.01 change per barrel change in WTI represents a P&L change of USD 10 in premium per contract. PART 2: EIGHT TOOLS TO BETTER NAVIGATE CRUDE OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Highlighted below are eight critical tools across TradingView and CME enabling investors to better navigate oil market dynamics. 1. OPEC+ Watch OPEC+ Watch charts the probability of different outcomes from OPEC+ meetings. Probabilities are derived from actual market data & represent a condensed consensus market view of forthcoming meetings. 2. News Flow TradingView’s News section collates the key market developments impacting crude oil. 3. Forward Curve TradingView maps crude oil prices across the forward curve exhibiting oil’s term structure. Augmenting the forward curve chart is a table CL contracts across various expiries with technical signals embedded in them enabling investors to spot calendar spread trading opportunities. 4. TradingView Scripts Supported by a vibrant community of script creators, TradingView has curated scripts catering to the specific needs of crude oil traders. OIL WTI/Brent Spread by MarcoValente: Shows the spread between WTI and Brent crude. This spread is growing in importance with growth in US oil exports. Seasonality Indicator by tradeforopp: Presents seasonal price trends along with key pivot points to guide traders. 5. Economic Calendars TradingView’s economic calendar highlights upcoming economic events segmented by dates and with countdown timers to help traders better manage their portfolios. Augmenting, TradingView’s calendar is CME’s Economic Events Analyzer which lists key events specifically impacting energy markets and highlights the relevant weekly options contract. 6. Options Expiration Calendar CME’s Options Expiration Calendar is a comprehensive yet condensed view of upcoming expiration dates of WTI options, even those that are not listed yet. 7. Daily/Weekly Options Report CME’s Daily/Weekly Options Report profiles volumes and OI by strike price for weekly options supplying key stats such as Put/Call ratio and key strike levels at a glance. 8. Strategy Simulator CME’s strategy simulator allows investors to simulate diverse options strategies. Selecting the relevant instruments and adding each component of the overall position automatically calculates the payoff while still allowing modification of key statistics such as volatility based on user inputs. The below shows the payoff of an ATM straddle position for the upcoming Monday weekly option. It also allows simulating various market conditions. Selecting price trends such as up fast, up slow, flat, down slow, down fast can simulate the changes in P&L. PART 3: ILLUSTRATING USAGE OF WEEKLY CRUDE OIL OPTIONS Why does CME list weekly options expiring on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday? Each of these address specific macro events. OPEC meeting outcomes are typically announced over the weekend leading to gaps in prices on Monday. EIA weekly crude oil inventory data are released on Wednesdays. Key US economic data such as CPI and Non-farm payrolls are released on Fridays. Use Case for Options expiring on Monday These can be used to hedge against downside risk associated with weekend events. For instance, in April, OPEC+ announced major supply cuts at their meeting on Sunday. This led to WTI price spiking 4% at market open. This can lead to “gap risk.” Gap risk refers to the risk that markets may open sharply above or below their previous close. Since, price never passes the levels in between, stop loss orders fail to trigger at set levels resulting in more-than-anticipated realised losses. Such gap risks from weekend news can be managed through Monday weekly options which provides a predictable and resilient payoff with limited downside risk. Use Case for Options expiring on Wednesday Oil inventory reports by EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) and API (American Petroleum Institute) are released every week on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Major misses/beats against expectations for these releases can result in large price moves. Wednesday options come in handy to better manage volatility stemming from these shocks or surprises. Weekly options provide superior ROI on small moves when compared to futures. Favourable price moves deliver larger payoffs from position in weekly options than futures and shorter expiries allow for much lower premium than monthly options. Illustrating with Back tested Results On June 14th, Crude price fell by 1.7% (USD 1.2) to USD 68.7/barrel upon release of inventory data that showed a larger than expected inventory build-up. In the lead up to this data release, a crude oil participant could either (a) Short Crude Oil Futures, or (b) Long Weekly Crude Oil Put Option. Summary outcomes from these two strategies are tabulated and charted below. The results speak for themselves. Short dated long put option is capital efficient, prudent, and credible as a risk management tool. That said, participants must evaluate the risk return profile taking into consideration market liquidity and volatility levels, among others, when choosing between instruments. KEY TAKEAWAYS In summary, 1) Weekly Options can be cleverly deployed to hedge against shocks in oil markets. 2) TradingView & CME provide a rich suite of tools to deftly navigate the oil market dynamics. 3) Weekly options expiring on (a) Monday helps manoeuvre developments over the weekend, (b) Wednesday helps to manage inventory data linked shocks, and (c) Friday enables investors to trade and hedge around key US economic data. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.Editors' picksEducationby mintdotfinance66128
Crude to break above 90 by sep 15thwww.tradingview.com Crude to break above 90 by sep 15th due to OPEC+ cutting oil supplies among surging global demand. Price points to watch is if price breaks below 82.70 and Holds- Could mean price rotating back inside value and it could be the begining of a 80% likely flush to the down side- However- if price hold above 83.50 and holds- I am looking for over 90 by the end of the month. Longby libertyboy6133
CrudeOilCrude Oil is just started downside. expecting to start moving down below swing#1. If it starts moving down below 1, then it will start moving implusively. Shortby shiva5600609
Wti Crude oilOne can Sell on Threshold(SOT) It has auctioned up very nicely and probability of it coming down is very high. It might fin ubsurd, but this is the fact. Price goes up.99 % people will buy, only the auctioneer knows that it will come down :) :) :) Shortby venusenterprisesblrUpdated 5
Breakout on Crude Oil Daily ChartCurrently, a resistance is visible on the daily chart of Crude Oil. If crude oil breaks this resistance, there may be a buying opportunity. On the contrary, crude oil can touch this resistance and go down again.Longby Sudhir-Sirohi3
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/11/23For Friday, the 81.49 - 81.64 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.15 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year. In the more immediate vicinity, 84.14 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.15 indicates 86.15 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures - once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks. A daily settlement above 86.15 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis. Downside Friday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 78.02 then expected by the end of next week, 70.85 attainable by the end of September.by SpecialeAnalysis5
My view on Crudeoil Head & Shoulder forming in crudeoil in small time frame Below 6878 Tgt 6830-6800-6750 Keeping on radar Crudeoil 6900 PEShortby M_K_PUSHKAR18
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari3
Moving average This is how we draw the Exponential Moving Average in the trading view desktop version 01:27by Matecic0
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/10/23For Thursday, the 81.49 - 81.66 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.28 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year. In the more immediate vicinity, 84.18 can contain session activity, above which 86.28 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks. A daily settlement above 86.28 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis. Downside Thursday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 77.86 then expected within 3 - 5 days, 70.77 by the end of September.by SpecialeAnalysis0
Crude Oil Rises to Push RSI Towards Overbought TerritoryThe price of oil clears the April high ($83.53) to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards overbought territory. Crude Oil Outlook The price of oil clears the opening range for August to register a fresh yearly high ($84.65), and a move above 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further rise in crude like the price action from last month. A break/close above $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil towards the $93.50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region, which largely lines up with the November 2022 high ($93.74), but the RSI may show the bullish momentum if it fails to push above 70. A move below the $82.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $82.60 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push the price of oil towards $78.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement), with a breach of the monthly low ($78.69) opening up the $75.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $75.60 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) area. by FOREXcom2
Crude Oil losing momentum Crude oil is on its final push coupled with bearish divergences and major resistance zone. The last handful of times crude has reached this point on the RSI it has been followed by large declines in the following weeks. Trade safe!Shortby farmtrader15115
oil looking to retest 83after the short from earlier this morning, I see oil looking to retest 83. needs to close above the head and shoulders bearish breakout. its also currently showing a bullish abcd pattern Longby moneyflow_traderUpdated 2
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari2
#CrudeOil #XTIUSD Trading The Bullish SequenceIn this update we review the recent price action in Crude Oil and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target •Past performance not indicative of future results01:42by Tickmill1
Golden Cross WTICrude oil, after breaking through the downtrend line, has gained a very good momentum to nearly $83/barrel. Currently waiting for the cross of ma50 and ma200 daily (Golden cross) to confirm a long-term uptrend of crude oil => Long-term buying opportunity in the near future. Currently, crude oil in the D1 frame is currently at the resistance area of 82 - 83. Yesterday, crude oil had a correction but immediately increased again, however, the increasing momentum on the daily frame is showing signs of weakening when the RSI tending to create lower peaks => Possibly in the next 1-2 weeks Crude oil will have a downward correction. This is an opportunity to buy crude oil products. The first watchable price zone to buy is the 75 - 77 price zone.Longby ngohung910
OIL ($CL_F) Impulse Sequence Supports More UpsideThe short-term Elliott wave view in the OIL futures ($CL_F) suggests that the cycle from the 12 June 2023 low is unfolding in an impulse sequence that supports more upside in the instrument. Up from that low, the wave ((i)) ended at $72.72 high in a lesser degree 5 waves. While wave ((ii)) ended at 67.05 low and wave ((iii)) also unfolded in a lesser degree 5 waves sequence. In which, wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at $77.33 high. Down from there, the pullback to the $73.84 low ended wave (ii) & the instrument rallied higher again. The rally to the $82 high ended wave (iii) & a pullback in wave (iv) ended at $78.69 low. Then a push higher towards $83.30 high ended wave (v) and thus completed the wave ((iii)). From there, OIL did a 3 wave pullback within wave ((iv)) as a zigzag structure where wave (a) ended at $81.52. Wave (b) ended at $82.55 and wave (c) ended at $79.90 low. Near-term, as far as dips remain above the $79.90 low the OIL is expected to resume the upside in wave ((v)) towards $84.09- $85.39 area, which is the inverse 123.6-161.8% target area of wave ((iv)) minimum before a pullback happens.by Elliottwave-Forecast113
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari226
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/8/23For Tuesday, the 81.49 - 81.71 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.54 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year. Upside Tuesday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.54 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis. Downside Tuesday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.by SpecialeAnalysis0
$CL Crude Oil FuturesCrude oil futures have been in a parallel uptrend since June 28th. On August 5th, Crude Oil futures tested the double top from April 13th, but were unable to break through. This is a bullish sign, as it suggests that buyers are still in control of the market. Now, we are waiting for a period of bullish consolidation before a breakout to the upside. The next resistance level to watch is the $90 per barrel mark. If crude oil futures can break through this level, it could open the door to further gains. Overall, the outlook for crude oil futures is bullish. The current uptrend is still intact, and buyers are still in control of the market. A breakout to the upside is likely in the near future.Longby AlgoTradeAlert1