MROWith oil in a strong downtrend I am taking a contrarian stance with a bullish call debit spread in Marathon. IVR is terribly low and it is not the Tasty Trade way of selling premium. MRO was down another 3% today and IVR is 10.4% when I purchased the 12/15 call DEBIT spread all the way out til Jan. for $1.18 I looked at other oil companies BP, RDS, COP but avoided them due to foreign complications such as Brexit exit and such. XOP and OIH had higher IVR which makes buying options less attractive. The overall market is way overdue for a sell off, so I stayed in smaller UL and will add to this position up to two more times. That is also why I went so far out in time. I am thinking Saudi Arabia will look to manipulate the markets in order to spin off Aramco and a possibility Venezuela could have some disruption of its oil flow with all the chaos. I am already long and wrong in PXD. This stock has gone lower in the not so distant past so there is some risk but my overall portfolio is short so this may balance beta weighted deltas.Longby dluxe23Updated 114
‘Margin of safety’; accumulate towards a $9 cost basisMarathon Oil Corp. $11.31 July 13th 2017 Energy has underperformed the S&P 500 by -21% year-to-date. Marathon is down -35% and trades at a 22% discount to tangible book value, despite being relatively well positioned to withstand lower crude oil prices (figure 1). At 6.2x EV/EBITA (9.0x sector average), there are signs that patient investors will be rewarded by the company’s current valuation. Tactical Summary Speculative positioning: Speculative positioning is extremely short, for only the third time in 15 years (not pictured) . Notably, the current extreme has set a new record, surpassing even the pessimism that surrounded the stock in 2016 when crude oil was trading 40% below current levels. This is a bullish signal for contrarian investors. Patient money flows: Real money investors are accumulating at current levels (not pictured) . Although the stock declined further following a similar condition in 2015, the current setup has a coincident extreme in speculative positioning, which was not the case then. The last (and only) time there was similar confirmation was in 2016, when the stock registered a 14-year low before trebling over the next 9 months. Technical analysis: Although momentum is currently negative, the RSI oscillator is oversold on a weekly and daily basis which suggests that price may begin to stabilise (see chart) . A new regime of outperformance would be confirmed by a crossing of the two moving averages shown in the ratio chart in figure 6. Trade management: Price is currently around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the Feb ‘16 low (see chart) . With fundamental value present, investors may look to establish a position here and accumulate towards a basis of $9.25, coincident with the 78.6% pivot. Whilst our valuation ‘margin of safety’ would have grown a further 20%, a break below this level would suggest a retest of the 2016 low ($6.50). Disclaimer: This report is compiled for professional investors and intended for the named person's use only. It may contain confidential, proprietary or legally privileged material. Data is provided for informational purposes and should not be considered sufficient to base an investment decision on. This information should not be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation of any particular security or to engage in any trading strategy. Longby JamesHelliwell4
Buy MRO here. Stop at 11.72..Aim for a 6.5 to 1 tradeMRO Broke to the upside of a Market Profile Pattern. Expect follow through from here....by TradeSteve5
MRO- Low Gasoline Rest Of 2017To much gasoline is produced and stored in world, leading to lower prices at pump. I believe gasoline will be lower rest of year and possibilities into 2019. On chart is a range of $14.00 down to $8.00, where MRO shares were trading, not to long ago. Shortby Anbat4
What the hourly chart tells us. Interesting bounce off support there. Will it hold above that RSI trend line?? Let me know your thoughts! is $50 dollar oil already factored into price?by gumbtgUpdated 3
Love this one for the 23. Reaching the resistance of the Ichimoku lines very probable and that will put us ITM on the 13.5 strike. Option expiring on the 23 of June. Longby coker.sergio14
MRO - Into the buyers zone.At the mentoring group we called it a "Mountain". To me, this is just a buyers zone. But it doesn't matter how you call it. It matters, how you use it, and what you are aware of, IF you use it. Because this zone could get washed in a blink... That's why it is always a good idea to first observe, and then let the market yell at you, if there is a potential entry showing up. My guess (...umpf...guesswork...very bad!) is, that it will trade into this zone, come back and play along with the rules of the forks. This means, it will jump above the centerline, make a retest and then picking up the new direction to the north. Let's see...let's be patient...let's observe. P!by Tr8dingN3rd7
Putting things into perspective -$MRONot one of my better charts. Not too much going on with it. I would choose to not trade it (in a perfect world), especially after today's price collapse of 7%. gap strategies are you best bet for trading this one. by gumbtg224
MRO TESTS GAP AND IS SUPPORTEDMRO HAS TESTED THE GAP IT LEFT IN LATE DECEMBER AND SEEMS SUPPORTED RIGHT HERE. I LIKE THE MARCH CALLS SINCE THEY GIVE US SOME TIME TO LET THIS WORK ITSELF OUT WITHOUT MUCH DECAY. WE BOUGHT THEM DOWN ABOUT 20% ON THE DAY AND I WON'T HESITATE TO CLOSE THEM OUT IF WE BREAK 16.53 ON A CLOSING BASIS...I WILL TEXT MEMBERS...OZLongby GreatWizeOz4
MRO Bullish Swing TradeRetest Gap. Increasing volume and all EMA's between entry and stop. Should bounce off one of the EMA's if triggered in.Longby Federman191
$MRO did you join me?Highlight this one yesterday when still trading within the wedge. Running to $17 from here. Longby Carr1