JUST ANALYSE SPX500 ( H4 )now the price of sp500 5180.73 do to my analyse sp500 price is going down to near 4977.46 by Millionaire_789112
S&P500 Valuation In Current Economic EnvirontmentHello everyone, as title says, today I would like to speak about the S&P500 and its market valuation in the current economic environment. Since I prefer to study and analyze markets on higher time frames rather than day-to-day, this Case Study is based on quarter outlook (3M chart), to capture most of the available information using metrics that have significant inputs and outputs on the economy e.g. Interest Rates, Employment Rates, company Bankcruptcies & others. I decided to make this Case Study since I believe we may be on the verge of facing difficulties on micro and macro levels, which in history led into a downturn of equity markets for a prolonged period of time. It may be argued that some of these Cases are not relevant since they don't include full data, and that would be fair. But at the same time, I would point out that these data and used Cases are the most relevant to this day, because of their similarities to today's economic environment even if not in a full manner. For better understanding, you need to take a look at Pic1. (Pic1.:S&P500 chart with color legend) -Captured time windows consist of the US Unemployment rate moving from relatively low levels to higher values in times when Interest Rates are relatively High. To make a better educated guess I included US bankcrupcies as an overall business health indicator. -Inflation Rate or Federal Reserve Balance could be used additionally. Historically, I would argue that the most similar to this day looks Case Nr.4 In both, we have: a, rallied to ATH in unfavorable market conditions (3to4, 5to6?) b, unemployment rate curving up from the bottom c, bankcruptcies curving up from the bottom d, interest rates are high (and cuts are around horizont) Why is that important? Because as Pic2. shows: (Pic2.:S&P500 drawdown from top) -In all of these cases market bled and did not start turning around BEFORE FED found the bottom rate. And they have not even started cutting yet.. That in my view is a huge red flag and it brings attention to "Not IF we are about to go lower, but WHEN we are about to start going lower." It may be a month, two or three... but if we take a look at what the chart and those economic metrics suggest, it's most likely will not be a pretty ride until all of those are resolved in favorable manner for markets, which may take year or longer as historical cases shown.. Unless they decide to print NEW TRILLION$$$ Hopefully, this case study was helpful for some of you in further market navigation. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive personal analysis with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM. Best Regards, Joe by JoeCryptou110
SPx (Got it... and still running)SPx New Forecast the price reached our target as we mentioned in the previous idea. Now, it still has a bullish trend to reach 5224 from the pivot line which is 5177, so otherwise, it should break 5177 by closing 4h candle under it to get 5150 and 5120 Pivot Line: 5177 Resistance Levels: 5202, 5224, 5249 Support Levels: 5153, 5120, 5103 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5160 and the resistance 5249. previous idea: Longby SroshMayi5
S&P500 above the 1D MA50 after 3 weeks.S&P500 (SPX) is already going even better than our bottom buy signal last week (May 02, see chart below), having topped the 4H Channel Up, considerably above the 4H MA200: The index closed yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 11. Last time it did this was on November 03 2023 and after 5 days of consolidation, it broke the previous Lower High and resumed the long-term bullish trend by forming a Channel Up. It's first Higher High target was within the 2.236 - 2.0 Fibonacci extension Zone, so once it breaks the April's High, we will add more buys, targeting 5650 (Fib 2.0). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot1129
The SPX is at a critical junctureLast Friday, the SPX gapped up at the open and temporarily broke above the 50-day SMA during the trading session. Finally, yesterday, the SPX managed to close above this line of resistance, which is a positive development. However, a failure of the price to defend the ground above this level, now acting as support, for multiple consecutive days will be concerning. Similarly concerning will be the flattening of RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, which are in the process of reversing to the upside. Illustration 1.01 The image above displays the daily graph of the SPX and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows highlight the initial rejection at the 50-day SMA on 29th April 2024 and the successful breakout on 3rd May 2024. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Longby Tradersweekly5
07May'24 /// SP500 // ES Key zone 23.5 stm.ES again closed with Buyers in control and now we have the Strong Resistance Zone at (ES 5209-5219) where Sellers are likely to be active on 1st test. Short-term Neutral-Bullish Intermediate Neutral-Bearish by southsiderealtrade1
SPX entered bull territoryDespite possible sideway fluctuations, SPX is on its way to reach 5,250 levelLongby IrinaTK0
US500: Signs of a Bullish Turn in the Market!After a prolonged bearish trend, the US500 is now signaling a shift towards a slightly bullish direction on the 1-hour chart. At the start of April, the index began its decline from the 5277 level, eventually reaching as low as 4925. Following this significant downturn, there are now indications of a potential upward trend. The current conditions are favorable for a long trade, and I have entered a buy position with a target level of 5175.3. Let's see what happens in the upcoming trading week.Longby ClearTradingMindUpdated 1
US500 above downward sloping trendSPX above downward sloping resistance from ATH to last Friday's highs. Session was a slow grind up in very low volume. Keep an eye out for 13/21 crossover and squeeze. Psychological 5200 is next resistance with last Friday's highs to 5130, then 5100 acting as support.by Odd_Lot0
SPX500 shortShorting oppportunity on the theory markets ranges 70% of the time. Shortby ComteSt.Germain3
SP500// ES Key zone 23.6 stm.All Board market strength But rally from OVN. Let see the action on good location.by southsiderealtrade1
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) C-Fund $SPX $SPY $VOOBroke through confluence of resistance (VWAP, 50 DMA) and pushing into DBD supply. We made our move from G Fund, back into C Fund, effective market close today. Allocation 72% C-Fund / 28% Mutual Fund BTCFX, as of market close today.Longby Davy_Dave_Charts1
SPX: challenged recovery?Markets tried to stay on a positive side after the FOMC meeting, however, the April`s job report was the one that saved the market optimism during the previous week. Although the Fed noted that the first rate cut will occur when data clearly show that the inflation is on a clear road toward the 2.0% target, a much softer than expected jobs report was the one that moved the equity market to the upside during the Friday`s trading session. The S&P 500 is ending the week at level of 5.129, or 0.55% higher from the end of the week before. The tech companies were mostly the ones which pushed the market to the upside. There has been a lot of discussion about Apple's earnings which missed the target, but the company announced its largest share buyback of $110 billion, which pushed its price even 6% higher. The semiconductor stocks were also traded higher, where Nvidia rose around 3%. The current sentiment on the market is led toward the overbought momentum. This means that there is a space for the index to move to the higher grounds from current ones. However, the next ATH is highly questionable at this moment. by XBTFX8
Weekly indice analysis I believe the snap 500 and nas100 are done with the temporary trend to the upside, we are likely to see a continuous momentum to the downside. The price is from a premium price level , thus bouncing on the golden fib Zone. Longby FxMeister1
Live stream - Morning Market Review - 02 April 2024Join FXCM senior market specialist Russell Shor for the morning market review.24:14by FXCMUpdated 7
Live stream - Morning Market Review - 03 April 2024Join FXCM senior market specialist Russell Shor for the morning market review.22:04by FXCMUpdated 10
Live stream - Morning Market Review - 05 April 2024Join FXCM senior market specialist Russell Shor for the morning market review.21:31by FXCMUpdated 5
Live stream - Morning Market Review - 04 April 2024Join FXCM senior market specialist Russell Shor for the morning market review.21:18by FXCMUpdated 5
BUY SP500 - explained in detailTrader Tom, an investing.com technical analyst explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please join us and hit the boost button.Long04:23by Simply-Forex1
🚩🚩Test only for studyTest chart for practice only This chart not for entry only saving to see how wrong is my drew Thanksby Abdullaz_0
SPX MAY 2024 WEEK 2 OUTLOOK - Daily - bullish. a couple of days consolidation seems to be on the cards for SPX before another leg up. as long as it stays above 5099, we are bullish and looking to get involved in longs. Origin - bullish but in need of pullback. **5074.22 - 5115.46** is the key zone to look out for. we would like the price to come inside this area and then get absorbed. once that happens, we can drop down to trigger TF and look to get involved.Longby Osiris9921
S&P 500 (SPX) - May 6th Week Ahead (Bullish Harami!)S&P 500 (SPX) - May 6th Week Ahead Bullish Forecast This week, we've observed a bullish signal with a weekly harami candlestick pattern, indicating potential upward momentum. Here's the forecast for the week ahead: Short-term Outlook (May 6th Week): We anticipate the S&P 500 to continue its bullish momentum, aiming for new highs. The weekly harami bullish close suggests a reversal of previous downward sentiment, setting the stage for upward movement. Our short-term target is 5665 for the S&P 500. VIX Analysis: The VIX, currently around $12, may test lower levels this week, possibly dipping below $12. However, we may see temporary bounces around the $12 mark, possibly occurring a few more times before sustained downward movement. In the short term, expect fluctuations in the VIX, with potential tests around $12. Intermediate to Long-term Outlook (Most Likely Q4): Looking ahead to the intermediate to long term, particularly in Q4, we forecast further decline in VIX values. We anticipate sub-$12 levels, possibly down to $11.50 or lower, with multiple daily closes supporting this trend. Upon reaching these levels, we'll position ourselves for ultra-long UVIX/UVXY trades, employing laddered expirations ranging from one week to multiple weeks/months. We'll maintain directly held positions in anticipation of increased volatility, capitalizing on the VIX's movement. Summary: Short-term bullish sentiment prevails, with a target of 5665 for the S&P 500. VIX may test lower levels, potentially dipping below $12, with short-term fluctuations and possible bounces around this mark. In the intermediate to long term, expect a decline in VIX values towards sub-$12 levels, where we'll position ourselves for ultra-long trades.Longby candlestickninja1
Tracking the inversion of the yield curve US02Y - US10YThe inversion of the yield curve often serves as a reliable indicator, suggesting an impending increase in the likelihood of both recession and market downturns in the foreseeable future To track this inversion effectively, you can subtracting the interest rates of the 2-year US government bonds from those of the 10-year bonds TVC:US02Y - TVC:US10Y When this calculation yields a result above 0 percent, it indicates an inversion in the 2-year versus 10-year interest rates In 2022, when the current inversion of the yield curve began, the “experts” were constantly warning us of an immediate recession and market crash However, historical data reveals that significant market corrections typically materialize many months, if not years, following the yield curve inversion The upper chart depicting US02Y-US10Y, the black 0 line serves as a reference point. Meanwhile, the lower chart illustrates the drawdown of the S&P 500 SP:SPX in the last 35 years The picture shows that each time there was a drawdown of at least 15% after the end of the inversion of the yield curve The dashed blue lines represent the end of the inversion, indicating that a larger drawdown is more likely after the end of the yield curve inversion and not during the inversion I'll be diligently monitoring the current inversion once again. A breach below 0% would warrant a considerably more cautious approach to the markets Admittedly, such correlations aren't infallible, and their fruition can sometimes span several years Nevertheless, they hold merit from a cyclical perspective Should the inversion of the yield curve cease to be inverted around 2025, a recession and market correction following the 18.6-year real estate cycle would become increasingly likely This would also align with the anticipated correction in the crypto market, typically occurring within a 4-year cycleby OfficerDonut111