S&P500 | H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello again Traders
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P is forming a rising wedge on the 1H chart. I don’t usually trade this pattern, but with the price approaching the wedge top, I see a potential short opportunity worth a small risk.
On the 4H chart, there’s an even larger rising wedge at play. My instinct is still that this could turn into a fake-out, so I’m monitoring lower timeframes for short setups that align with the bigger picture.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 9.45
Entry: 6 621.4
Stop Loss: 6 631.0
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 546.2
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 487.4
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I’d like to hear them.
📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPIUSD trade ideas
S&P500 | H2 Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders,
Watching the S&P for a potential double top.
It also aligns with the retest of the rising wedge, which is has already broken to the downside. This kind of confluence gives me extra excitement about a trade.
What I still need to happen for me to open the trade:
- H2 candle close in the entry range
- H2 candle that closes in the range needs a certain closure rate
- RSI needs to create another divergence
- Volume needs to be lower on T2, although my system does give exceptions if there is a data release, in this case FOMC, so exception will likely apply.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/reward = Between 3.3 and 4.3
Entry price = Between 6630 and 6639.9
Stop loss price = Between 6649.2 and 6656.8
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6576
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6553
I would ideally like my stop loss above the rising wedge, that way it needs to break through both barriers.
Also, if this pattern plays out, I think it will drag the crypto market down with it... Unfortunately.
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Always predefine your risk before entering a trade. This is a non negotiable to becoming a professional trader.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me for updates and let me know in the comments — do you see the wedge retest as bearish, or do you think the bulls have more room to run?
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Peace
G
SPX: rate cut fuels market rallyThe Fed finally made a long awaited move and cut interest rates by 25 basis points, for the first time during this year. Additional cuts are possible during the Q4, however, they will depend on the economic data, not on expectations from markets. Fed Chair Powell stressed that risks are now switched to the jobs market from the inflation, which moved relatively stable during the past period, although still modestly above the Fed's target of 2%.
The US equity markets continue to react positively to new macro developments, with S&P500 reaching another new all time highest level as of the end of the week at 6.665. The market also continues to move within a highly overbought range. Some analysts are beginning to stress that current S&P 500 levels are trading at 22 times forward earnings, noting that a period of consolidation would be a healthy period.
The rise in the S&P500 was helped by a sharp jump in Intel shares, which surged nearly 23% following Nvidia’s $5 billion investment and their plan to collaborate on AI-chips. Other top contributors included Nvidia, which recovered earlier losses despite concerns over Chinese tech regulations. Meanwhile, some S&P 500 stocks lagged: Darden Restaurants fell after disappointing earnings, and CrowdStrike saw gains after broker upgrades.
S&P 500 Index Holds Near Record High Ahead of Fed AnnouncementS&P 500 Index Holds Near Record High Ahead of Fed Announcement
At 21:00 GMT+3 today, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference. The rate is widely expected to be cut from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%.
This will conclude a prolonged intrigue fuelled by President Trump:
→ his constant criticism of Powell for pursuing an “overly tight” policy;
→ the decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, which markets perceived as direct pressure on the regulator’s independence.
In anticipation of the outcome, traders are showing optimism. The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high yesterday, climbing above 6,640 points. This morning the price pulled back slightly, which can be interpreted as a short-term correction ahead of a key event. Effectively, the market has already priced in the expected policy easing, viewing it as a catalyst for further growth.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Six days ago, when analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we noted that:
→ the price was oscillating within an upward channel (marked in blue);
→ in September, the index has been following a steep bullish trajectory (marked in orange), with its lower line showing signs of support.
Since then, favourable inflation data helped the bulls break above the channel’s upper boundary (highlighted with an arrow).
Possible scenarios:
Bullish perspective:
→ The breakout candle above the blue channel has a long body, signalling strong buying momentum – an imbalance, also known in Smart Money Concept (SMC) as a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
→ The local level of 6,600, once resistance, has now turned into support; the next target could be the psychological level of 6,700.
→ The price is consolidating above the blue channel’s upper boundary, indicating robust demand.
Bearish perspective:
→ The upper boundary of the orange channel may act as resistance.
→ The RSI indicator, although off overbought territory, remains close to it – potentially deterring buyers from entering at elevated prices.
Taking all of this into account, the current balance could easily be disrupted once the Fed announces its rate decision – arguably the most significant event of the month in the economic calendar. Be prepared for spikes in volatility, as sharp moves in either direction are possible.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 – Fed Speeches to Drive Next BreakoutSPX500 – Technical Outlook
Markets remain focused on Fed policy signals after last week’s rate cut and a wave of upcoming Fedspeak, while shrugging off the Trump administration’s H-1B visa crackdown. With traders pricing in further easing by year-end, comments from Fed officials will drive sentiment and could trigger sharp moves in U.S. indices.
Price Action
SPX500 is currently showing bearish momentum while trading below the pivot zone, reflecting investor caution ahead of key Fed speeches.
Bearish Path:
As long as price remains below the 6,663 pivot, downside pressure persists toward 6,634.
A confirmed 1H close below 6,634 would open the way for deeper losses toward 6,590.
Bullish Path:
A confirmed 1H candle above 6,684 would invalidate the bearish bias and signal fresh bullish momentum, targeting 6,700 → 6,742.
Key Levels
Pivot: 6,663
Resistance: 6,684 – 6,700 – 6,742
Support: 6,634 – 6,619 – 6,590
US500Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time. Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
S&P500 | H1 Head and Shoulders | GTradingMethod👋 Hello again fellow Traders,
I already have a short open from 6 633.7, but I’d love to see a Head & Shoulders pattern develop so I can scale into more shorts.
So far, the build-up looks promising — volume has picked up significantly on this drop, which is a bearish signal. That said, I’m still waiting on confirmation before committing further.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.1
Entry: 6 614.3
Stop Loss: 6 625.4
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 586.9
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 570.2
🔎 What I Need to See First:
A 30m candle to reach and close in range
Lower volume on the candle that closes in range vs. the left shoulder
More candles forming the right shoulder
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Patience is key. The best trades usually come when all conditions align — not just some of them.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me for updates, and keen to hear what your prediction is.
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPX500 Trading Strategy Explained: From Entry to Exit⚡ SPX500 “STANDARD & POOR” Indices Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡
(Swing / Day Trade Plan – Thief OG Style)
🧭 Plan
📈 Bias: Bullish confirmed with 30m LSMA pullback + 0.786 Fibonacci-based MA confluence.
💡 Entry Approach (Thief Layering Strategy™):
Instead of one-shot entry, I place multiple buy-limit layers to average into strength. Example setup:
Buy limit: 6600
Buy limit: 6620
Buy limit: 6640
👉 You can extend or adjust the layering based on your own strategy.
🎯 Stop Loss (SL)
This is my Thief SL @6560.
⚠️ Note to Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s): This SL is not a recommendation. Use your own judgment — protect your loot at your own risk.
💰 Target (TP)
📌 6750 — sitting at strong resistance + overbought zone + possible bull-trap.
⚠️ Again, OG’s — this is not financial advice. Take profit when it fits your plan. Secure the bag, then enjoy the loot!
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these correlated assets to confirm the SPX500’s move:
NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy index with strong correlation to SPX500. If tech stocks are pumping, it’s a bullish signal for our trade. 📊
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): A weaker dollar often boosts equities. Watch for inverse correlation—DXY dropping could mean SPX500 is ready to fly! 🚀
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index): Low VIX levels signal market calm, supporting our bullish setup. A spike in VIX could warn of trouble, so stay sharp! ⚡
Key Correlation Insight: SPX500 often moves in tandem with NASDAQ:NDX due to shared tech giants (think Apple, Microsoft). If NASDAQ:NDX is rallying, it’s a tailwind for our trade. Conversely, a rising TVC:DXY or TVC:VIX could signal caution.
📝 Thief Note
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s):
This map is my personal swing/day trade playbook — not a fixed recommendation. Layer entries, cut losers fast, and loot when you can. Market moves are wild; manage risk like a true OG.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared just for fun & educational vibes. Not financial advice. DYOR & trade responsibly.
YOU MAY LIVE TO SEE MANMADE HORRORS BEYOND YOUR COMPREHENSION :)"Beyond Technical Analysis" aka "Wave Analysis > Shingo Waves"
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
I've also absolutely NAILED _both_ OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD breakouts in their entirety (@ see history)
New all-time high in global financial liquidity1) The Fed has unveiled its new monetary policy trajectory, here are the key takeaways:
- Federal funds rate cycle through the end of 2025: there should be a total of 3 rate cuts by year-end.
- Update of macroeconomic projections: The Fed acknowledges the slowdown in the labor market and still expects inflation to normalize during 2026, allowing time to absorb the impact of tariffs.
- Balance of power among the 12 voting FOMC members: 11 out of 12 voted for a 0.25% rate cut, with only Stephen Miran voting for a jumbo Fed cut.
In the end, Jerome Powell’s Fed has thus enacted a genuine monetary pivot to account for the labor market slowdown, while remaining cautious about the upcoming normalization of inflation. The more accommodative monetary trajectory announced should provide support for risk assets in the stock market, but upcoming U.S. employment and inflation updates will still have a strong impact.
2) Global liquidity hits a new all-time high, a supportive factor for risk assets
Correlation studies show that risk assets in the stock market are highly correlated with the trend in global liquidity, i.e., the sum of the money supplies of the world’s major economies. Simply put, when the underlying trend of global liquidity is bullish, the S&P 500 and bitcoin prices also follow a bullish trend, and vice versa.
There are several ways to represent a country’s money supply, and the M2 monetary aggregate is recognized as the best measure of available liquidity within a state. Global M2 liquidity is calculated by aggregating the money supplies of major economies, notably the United States and China, converted into U.S. dollars (USD). The dollar’s evolution directly influences this measure: a strong dollar reduces global M2 in USD terms, while a weak dollar increases it, affecting capital flows and global financial conditions.
While global M2 liquidity is decisive, the net credit capacity within the financial system also plays a major role. When this is added to global M2, you get global liquidity — and this has just reached a new all-time high, as shown in the chart attached to this article.
This should therefore be a supportive factor for the stock market through year-end.
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Still going up for SPX500USDHi traders,
I show you week after week what price will do. If you follow my outlooks, you've made a lot of profit.
For example SPX500USD played out exactly as predicted in my previous outlook. After a sharp correction it continued the upmove and made a new ATH.
Now next week we could see a little more upside and a bigger correction down for (orange) wave 4.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P500 Key Trading levels Optimism on US-China relations drove markets higher after Trump’s positive Madrid meeting comments and Treasury Sec. Bessent’s note on a TikTok deal framework.
The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+0.87%) outperformed as US-listed Chinese firms rallied.
This lifted global equities: S&P 500 +0.47% (new ATH), Stoxx 600 +0.42%, both near record highs.
Tech led gains: NASDAQ +0.94%, Magnificent 7 +1.95%. Alphabet hit $3trn valuation, Tesla +3.56% on Musk’s share purchase. Nvidia slipped (-0.04%) on China antitrust news.
Despite broad weakness under the surface, the S&P 500 is now +12.47% YTD and has risen in 6 of the past 7 weeks—its strongest stretch in 2025.
Conclusion for S&P 500 today:
With sentiment anchored by trade optimism and tech leadership, momentum remains upward, but concentration in a few mega-cap names alongside weaker breadth suggests potential for near-term consolidation even as the broader index holds bullish bias.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6640
Resistance Level 2: 6660
Resistance Level 3: 6680
Support Level 1: 6575
Support Level 2: 6550
Support Level 3: 6530
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US500Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company
fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time.
Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
SPX: rte-cut hypeJust a week before the September FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 reached another fresh, new all-time highest level at 6.594 at Friday's trading session. The index managed to gain another 1,6% for the week. The latest move is sort of gearing-up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is expecting to see a 25 bps cut by FED officials. The jobs and inflation figures posted during the week, showed further stabilisation in inflation levels, but also weakening of the US jobs market. Both figures are supportive of the Fed to make a decision over a quarter-point rate cut. However, analysts are noting that the tone and rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell in after the meeting press conference on September 17th, will be crucial for the next move of US equity markets. Certainly, this will mark the most important day for financial markets in the week ahead.
Tech companies are again the ones that are driving the market to the higher grounds, TSLA gained 7,36% on Friday, continuing a recent upward trend. Despite no major announcements from Tesla, the stock has gained nearly 12% over the past week, driven by investor optimism that declining interest rates could boost car sales. The artificial intelligence tech firm Super Micro Computer jumped 6% after announcing it had begun volume shipments of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions to customers globally. Warner Bros Discovery rose nearly 8%, building on Thursday’s 29% surge, after reports in the news indicated that Paramount Skydance is preparing a takeover offer.
S&P500 Key support at 6600FOMC Takeaways
Fed cut rates 25bps to 4.00–4.25%, as expected.
Powell framed it as a “risk-management cut”, tempering hopes for an aggressive easing cycle.
Dot plot now signals 75bps total cuts in 2025 (vs. 50bps before), with softer growth/labour tone.
Markets saw a whipsaw: initial rally → Treasury selloff → equities flat by close.
Market Moves
Equities: S&P 500 closed -0.10%, after falling as much as -0.84% intraday.
Sector split: IT lagged (-0.70%), but financials (+0.96%) and consumer staples (+0.90%) outperformed.
Futures (Asia session): S&P +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.73% → rebound tone.
Rates: Yields higher post-FOMC (10yr +6bps to 4.09%) but down 2–2.5bps this morning.
FX: Dollar Index +0.18% overnight, extending gains despite initial dip.
Trading Implications
Market focus: Is the economy strong enough to sustain gains with only a gradual Fed cutting path?
Bull case: Rate-sensitive domestic sectors (financials, staples, housing-related) showing resilience; futures pointing higher.
Bear case: Transports lag industrials (Dow at records, transports weaker) – a potential warning sign for breadth of the rally.
Catalyst today: FedEx earnings – a key test for global trade/transport demand and market breadth confirmation.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6660
Resistance Level 2: 668
Resistance Level 3: 6700
Support Level 1: 6600
Support Level 2: 6570
Support Level 3: 6550
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US500 Remains in Bullish Trend. US500 remains in an overall bullish trend, recently reaching new record highs above 6,600, but market momentum is beginning to moderate as valuations stretch and profit-taking increases.
Fundamental Price Action Drivers
The main drivers are Fed rate cut optimism, strong earnings from big tech, and resilient consumer spending. These factors underpin risk appetite and support the rally.
Weak labor market and softer economic data are leading to expectations for ongoing monetary easing, keeping equities attractive despite elevated risks.
Rotation across sectors is visible, with technology and communication services acting as leaders while defensives and industrials lag.
Corporate earnings resilience and prospects of a "soft landing" continue to draw in buyers, but recent macro headwinds inflation, China trade are sparking caution and some volatility.
Technical Analysis
The index shows overbought technical signals, so any miss on earnings or hawkish surprise from the Fed could rapidly fuel a correction back to 6,490 or even 6,400.
While upward price targets 6,680 –6,725 remain feasible, consolidation or shallow pullbacks are likely in the near-term. Maintaining above 6,500 support for trend continuation is important, a break below increases risk for deeper downside toward 6,400.
Key Technical Levels
Support Zones: 6,610 (major) & 6,555 (pivot),
Resistance Zones: 6,680 & 6,725 (major target).
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness