Long US500I am looking for a retracement, and after that I believe the market will continue its uptrend.Longby JelaniFX1
SPX & Elliott Wave Developed in the 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, Elliott Wave Theory proposes that markets unfold in a series of five-wave impulses followed by three-wave corrections. These "waves" represent the collective emotions of investors, shifting from optimism and bullishness (impulsive waves) to fear and bearishness (corrective waves). The Anatomy of a Wave: Impulse Waves (1, 3, 5): These are the driving force of the market, pushing prices higher or lower in a sustained trend. They are characterized by strong momentum, increasing volume, and clear directional movement. Wave 1: The timid start, characterized by low volume and often met with skepticism. Wave 3: The powerhouse, boasting the highest volume and strongest price surge, often exceeding the gains of the previous two waves combined. Wave 5: The final push, often fueled by euphoria but experiencing declining volume as the trend nears exhaustion. Corrective Waves (2, 4): These counter-trend movements retrace a portion of the previous impulse wave's gains. They are characterized by lower volume, consolidation, and indecision. Wave 2: A pullback following Wave 1, often testing support levels but not exceeding the Wave 1 high. Wave 4: Another correction, often deeper and more complex than Wave 2, but not violating the low of Wave 2. Fractal Magic: The beauty of Elliott Wave Theory lies in its fractal nature. Each wave, whether impulsive or corrective, can be further subdivided into smaller waves that follow the same five-wave or three-wave pattern. This allows traders to apply the theory to different timeframes, from short-term day trading to long-term investment strategies. Volume as a Guide: While identifying wave patterns is key, volume confirmation adds another layer of insight. Remember that Wave 3, the engine of the trend, should experience the highest volume as bullish sentiment peaks. Conversely, Wave 5, the final leg, should see declining volume as the trend loses steam and investors become cautious. This volume divergence can serve as an early warning sign of a potential trend reversby Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 2215
SPX: Bulls Take the Stairs; Bears Take the Elevator (part 2)Ok we are nearing the top floor of this trip Our trip down will be a little more "hurried" than our trip up Buckle Up! P.S. if you don't like to ride the elevator down then there is another one about to head up over on TLT :)SShortby Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 779
Distant and Not-So-Distant CousinsEverywhere I look I'm seeing talk of a "new bull market" But I don't think this is a new bull market I think we are getting a visit from a distant relative: Ole' Cousin Bear Market Rally Why do I think this? Well, typical of "family", the members within share common attributes In the next post we will talk about what some of those common attributes are in detail Shortby Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 7713
SPX500 Moves Overbought on Hourly ChartThe hourly chart is showing signs of froth, which may result in a short-term pull back. However, the daily chart is showing positive momentum. Therefore a short-term pullback may make the support areas compelling. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.Long02:59by FXCM2
Macro Monday 8 - S&P500/M2 Money SupplyMACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator. For example, when there is more cash made available or too much, more cash typically gets spent. A little more can be good, too much or too sudden an increase can increase the risk of inflation. That's why the Federal Reserve constricts the money supply when inflation rears its ugly head. At present the Federal Reserve is decreasing the M2 Money supply in an effort to slow down spending in order to control and reduce the rate of inflation. Since April 2022 the M2 Money Supply has reduced from $22 Trillion down to $20.82 Trillion. The money supply and its impact on Inflation combined with current interest rates has major ramifications for the general economy, as they heavily influence job availability, consumer spending, business investment, currency strength, and trade balance. The M2 Money Supply also has a major impact on the stock market and can act as catalyst for increased purchases of stocks (when the money supply is increasing as more money is available) and can also cause the selling of stock when money supply is tight or tightening as it is at present (as less money is available in the wider economy). The Chart – Accounting for Money Supply As noted above the M2 Money Supply is reducing and it is expected that this may result in the S&P500 making lower lows as the supply of money continues to contract. The S&P500 performance looks very different when it is adjusted to account for the increases and decreases of the money supply. We can achieve this by dividing the S&P500 by the M2 Money Supply (Chart 1). Chart 1 – S&P / M2 Money Supply - Since 1996 the Major Resistance Zone has stopped every progression higher. - In 2007 a rejection from the resistance zone resulted in the Great Financial Crisis - Major recessions are labelled with red arrows & market corrections with blue arrows. - Since GFC there have been a number of rejections from the resistance zone which have coincided with notable corrections for the S&P500 (see blue arrows). - The most notable of these rejections was the COVID Crash in March 2020. - We are at the resistance zone now and it appears we are struggling to breach above it and may be rejected again. Given we have been rejected by this level 5 times since the 2007 Great Financial Crisis, it seems wise to remain cautious and expect a rejection from this level again. Chart 2 – S&P500 & M2 Money supply (Segregated) - This chart shows you the S&P price action in isolation and underneath the M2 Money Supply for reference. - The declining M2 Money supply is like a weight or float pushing and pulling the S&P500 price action in its direction. - The M2 Money supply may gravitate down towards its long term trend line over the coming year(s) and one would expect the S&P500 to follow its lead and also gravitate lower. - Interestingly, on Chart 2 you can see that the level that the M2 Money Supply and the S&P500 were at prior to the pandemic would present an S&P500 price tag of $3,350. Summary Its seems unlikely that the S&P500 is about to break higher due to the overhead long term resistance zone on Chart 1 which helped predict the last two recessions (red arrows) and a handful of corrections (blue arrows). There is a strong likelihood of continued M2 Money Supply normalization towards its long term trend line on Chart 2, especially considering Federal Reserves continued efforts to constrict the money supply through quantitative tightening to help quell inflation. These efforts will likely subdue any attempt of positive price action on the S&P500. It is important to recognise that the Dot Com Bubble in 2000 pressed through the resistance zone on Chart 1 demonstrating just how big a bubble it was. It was initially rejected from the resistance zone in March 1997, however the M2 Money Supply was increasing at this time so whilst this outcome is always possible, it does not presently seem probable with M2 Money supply decreasing and likely continuing to decrease going forward. Another potential outcome is a false break out above the resistance zone on Chart 1. We have had an unprecedented increase in to the money supply since the March 2020 COVID Crash and this could have a lagging effect which eventually pushes us over the resistance zone. Fiscal Stimulus which is harder to predict could also help us arrive at this scenario. Regardless, if these circumstances are met with continued decreasing M2 Money Supply, I believe that it would be a short lived breach of the resistance zone resulting in maybe a $4,980 S&P500 price tag (a higher high) followed by a severe correction. That is IF M2 Money supply is still decreasing as the S&P500 makes those higher highs. And finally we have to consider what most people would consider to be the most unrealistic scenario, a Dot Com Style bubble towards the top red line on Chart 1. As improbable as this is, a combination of factors could lead us into this scenario; - The aforementioned lagging effects of the unprecedented never before seen increase in the M2 Money Supply since the pandemic. - Continued or new Fiscal Stimulus from the US government. - The bullish AI narrative (which appears to be dissipating at present) This final bullish scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI hype to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? It’s hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus we have to keep an open mind as the Fed tries to simmer us down from these record levels of liquidity It will be very interesting to watch these charts over coming weeks and months to see if we get our anticipated rejection from the resistance zone on Chart 1. A special mention to Ben Cowen from "Intothecryptoverse" who originally brought this style chart to my attention. My chart could be considered a snapshot of his view however I hope I have added to it in some way with the above commentary and some correlations I have noticed. Thank you for reading to the end. I hope these charts help frame todays market for you going forward. I’ll keep you posted on any major changes. PUKAby PukaChartsUpdated 8
SPX big short attempt. Been swing bearish on SPX for a while. With previous analysis I thought the stop hunt risk was to 5200 and then the bear trade would come. If this is right, we have a lot more downside to come. Potentially even taking out all of the 2023 rally. But one thing at a time. Next big support level would be 4725. Currently positioning with shorts and OTM puts with strikes close to ATM and high RR ones close under 4800. Shortby holeyprofitUpdated 227
sp500 going to double-top...profit taking and uncertainties due to higher inflation, unemployment rate, war in ukraine and middle-east.Shortby Geffthefishers112
JUST ANALYSE SPX500 ( H4 )now the price of sp500 5180.73 do to my analyse sp500 price is going down to near 4977.46 by Millionaire_789112
S&P500 Valuation In Current Economic EnvirontmentHello everyone, as title says, today I would like to speak about the S&P500 and its market valuation in the current economic environment. Since I prefer to study and analyze markets on higher time frames rather than day-to-day, this Case Study is based on quarter outlook (3M chart), to capture most of the available information using metrics that have significant inputs and outputs on the economy e.g. Interest Rates, Employment Rates, company Bankcruptcies & others. I decided to make this Case Study since I believe we may be on the verge of facing difficulties on micro and macro levels, which in history led into a downturn of equity markets for a prolonged period of time. It may be argued that some of these Cases are not relevant since they don't include full data, and that would be fair. But at the same time, I would point out that these data and used Cases are the most relevant to this day, because of their similarities to today's economic environment even if not in a full manner. For better understanding, you need to take a look at Pic1. (Pic1.:S&P500 chart with color legend) -Captured time windows consist of the US Unemployment rate moving from relatively low levels to higher values in times when Interest Rates are relatively High. To make a better educated guess I included US bankcrupcies as an overall business health indicator. -Inflation Rate or Federal Reserve Balance could be used additionally. Historically, I would argue that the most similar to this day looks Case Nr.4 In both, we have: a, rallied to ATH in unfavorable market conditions (3to4, 5to6?) b, unemployment rate curving up from the bottom c, bankcruptcies curving up from the bottom d, interest rates are high (and cuts are around horizont) Why is that important? Because as Pic2. shows: (Pic2.:S&P500 drawdown from top) -In all of these cases market bled and did not start turning around BEFORE FED found the bottom rate. And they have not even started cutting yet.. That in my view is a huge red flag and it brings attention to "Not IF we are about to go lower, but WHEN we are about to start going lower." It may be a month, two or three... but if we take a look at what the chart and those economic metrics suggest, it's most likely will not be a pretty ride until all of those are resolved in favorable manner for markets, which may take year or longer as historical cases shown.. Unless they decide to print NEW TRILLION$$$ Hopefully, this case study was helpful for some of you in further market navigation. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive personal analysis with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM. Best Regards, Joe by JoeCryptou110
SPx (Got it... and still running)SPx New Forecast the price reached our target as we mentioned in the previous idea. Now, it still has a bullish trend to reach 5224 from the pivot line which is 5177, so otherwise, it should break 5177 by closing 4h candle under it to get 5150 and 5120 Pivot Line: 5177 Resistance Levels: 5202, 5224, 5249 Support Levels: 5153, 5120, 5103 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5160 and the resistance 5249. previous idea: Longby SroshMayi5
S&P500 above the 1D MA50 after 3 weeks.S&P500 (SPX) is already going even better than our bottom buy signal last week (May 02, see chart below), having topped the 4H Channel Up, considerably above the 4H MA200: The index closed yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 11. Last time it did this was on November 03 2023 and after 5 days of consolidation, it broke the previous Lower High and resumed the long-term bullish trend by forming a Channel Up. It's first Higher High target was within the 2.236 - 2.0 Fibonacci extension Zone, so once it breaks the April's High, we will add more buys, targeting 5650 (Fib 2.0). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot1129
The SPX is at a critical junctureLast Friday, the SPX gapped up at the open and temporarily broke above the 50-day SMA during the trading session. Finally, yesterday, the SPX managed to close above this line of resistance, which is a positive development. However, a failure of the price to defend the ground above this level, now acting as support, for multiple consecutive days will be concerning. Similarly concerning will be the flattening of RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, which are in the process of reversing to the upside. Illustration 1.01 The image above displays the daily graph of the SPX and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows highlight the initial rejection at the 50-day SMA on 29th April 2024 and the successful breakout on 3rd May 2024. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Longby Tradersweekly5
07May'24 /// SP500 // ES Key zone 23.5 stm.ES again closed with Buyers in control and now we have the Strong Resistance Zone at (ES 5209-5219) where Sellers are likely to be active on 1st test. Short-term Neutral-Bullish Intermediate Neutral-Bearish by southsiderealtrade1
SPX entered bull territoryDespite possible sideway fluctuations, SPX is on its way to reach 5,250 levelLongby IrinaTK0
US500: Signs of a Bullish Turn in the Market!After a prolonged bearish trend, the US500 is now signaling a shift towards a slightly bullish direction on the 1-hour chart. At the start of April, the index began its decline from the 5277 level, eventually reaching as low as 4925. Following this significant downturn, there are now indications of a potential upward trend. The current conditions are favorable for a long trade, and I have entered a buy position with a target level of 5175.3. Let's see what happens in the upcoming trading week.Longby ClearTradingMindUpdated 1
US500 above downward sloping trendSPX above downward sloping resistance from ATH to last Friday's highs. Session was a slow grind up in very low volume. Keep an eye out for 13/21 crossover and squeeze. Psychological 5200 is next resistance with last Friday's highs to 5130, then 5100 acting as support.by Odd_Lot0
SPX500 shortShorting oppportunity on the theory markets ranges 70% of the time. Shortby ComteSt.Germain3
SP500// ES Key zone 23.6 stm.All Board market strength But rally from OVN. Let see the action on good location.by southsiderealtrade1
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) C-Fund $SPX $SPY $VOOBroke through confluence of resistance (VWAP, 50 DMA) and pushing into DBD supply. We made our move from G Fund, back into C Fund, effective market close today. Allocation 72% C-Fund / 28% Mutual Fund BTCFX, as of market close today.Longby Davy_Dave_Charts1
SPX: challenged recovery?Markets tried to stay on a positive side after the FOMC meeting, however, the April`s job report was the one that saved the market optimism during the previous week. Although the Fed noted that the first rate cut will occur when data clearly show that the inflation is on a clear road toward the 2.0% target, a much softer than expected jobs report was the one that moved the equity market to the upside during the Friday`s trading session. The S&P 500 is ending the week at level of 5.129, or 0.55% higher from the end of the week before. The tech companies were mostly the ones which pushed the market to the upside. There has been a lot of discussion about Apple's earnings which missed the target, but the company announced its largest share buyback of $110 billion, which pushed its price even 6% higher. The semiconductor stocks were also traded higher, where Nvidia rose around 3%. The current sentiment on the market is led toward the overbought momentum. This means that there is a space for the index to move to the higher grounds from current ones. However, the next ATH is highly questionable at this moment. by XBTFX8
Weekly indice analysis I believe the snap 500 and nas100 are done with the temporary trend to the upside, we are likely to see a continuous momentum to the downside. The price is from a premium price level , thus bouncing on the golden fib Zone. Longby FxMeister1
Live stream - Morning Market Review - 02 April 2024Join FXCM senior market specialist Russell Shor for the morning market review.24:14by FXCMUpdated 7