S&P500 Uptrend$5000 level is the target of this uptrend. Weekly chart shows that recession It is too early! EMA-150 and EMA-200 is used on this chart to determine the trend... Also we have bullish MACD divergence !Longby ilia.gobadzeUpdated 5511
📈 SPX Uptrend Broken, Downtrend Confirmed!We are going to be looking at it through the moving averages and keep it simple this time... How are you feeling today? I am hoping you are having a wonderful Saturday. Based on what I am seeing in this chart, next week will be a super bloody, full blown red week and that's ok; the market moves in waves... We are talking about the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX). ➖ A rounded bottom pattern in October 2023 led to a very strong bullish wave. The bullish wave or uptrend is marked by price action happening above EMA10 and EMA21. ➖ The S&P 500 Index just produced a rounded top pattern, which is the inverse of the rounded bottom, and is ready to crash lower. This last statement is based on the fact that a continuation already took place after EMA10 and EMA21 failed as support. ➖ One final signal: As the SPX trades near its All-Time High, the daily RSI is weak, becoming weaker and moving lower with no support. This after four months of distribution. 👉 The main target for this drop sits around ~4,500, a more than 11.1% drop. There will be support on the way down and there is also the possibility of prices moving much lower. We will have to wait and see how it all develops and adapt as the bearish wave unfolds. One thing we know for sure, it can last just 2-3 weeks just as it can last 8 months... That's how shaky right now things are. Namaste.Shortby AlanSantanaUpdated 7763
Apple's Massive Divergence: Fluke? or Warning of Imminent Crash?Since Mid-December the Tech-Giant Apple appears to have fallen out of favor with investors as of late with the lawsuits piling up & rampant selling, while other tech companies & etfs as a whole continue to either grind or rally higher, which makes some sense with the AI Boom (Bubble) continuing on, but doesn't make sense because apple should be benefiting from something like this because historically apple & spy/qqq have for the past 10+ years had near 1:1 correlation, Which brings up an interesting discussion: could this be an isolated incident with a single company while leaving the overall market intact? or is this a warning sign to an eventual large selloff or even ai bubble bust/crash? by CryptoGuy234Updated 1
👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick PatternThree Black Crows is a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend. Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red. The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal. Key points 👉 Three Black Crows is a Bearish candlestick pattern used to predict a reversal to a current uptrend, used along with other technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). 👉 The size of the Three black crow candles, timeframe they appeared on, the gaps when they opened, the downward progression sequence, as well as their shadows can be used to judge whether there is a risk of a pullback on a reversal. 👉 The “Three Black Crows” pattern should be considered finally formed after the sequential closure of all three elements included in it. 👉 The opposite pattern of three black crows is three white soldiers, which indicates a reversal of the downward trend. But maybe more about that another time. Explanation of the Three Black Crows pattern Three Black Crows is a visual pattern, which means there is no need to worry about any special calculations when identifying this indicator. The Three Black Crows pattern occurs when the bears outperform the bulls over three consecutive trading bars. The pattern appears on price charts as three bearish long candles with or without short shadows or wicks. In a typical Three Black Crows appearance, bulls start the time frame with the opening price or gap up, that is, even slightly higher than the previous close, but throughout the time frame the price declines to eventually close below the previous time frame's close. This trading action will result in a very short or no shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure, which lasted across three time frames, as the start of a bearish downtrend. Example of using Three black crows As a visual pattern, it is best to use the Three Black Crows as a sign to seek confirmation from other technical indicators. The Three Black Crows pattern and the confidence a trader can put into it depends largely on how well the pattern is formed. Three Black Crows should ideally be relatively long bearish candles that close at or near the lowest price for the period. In other words, candles should have long real bodies and short or non-existent shadows. If the shadows are stretching, it may simply indicate a slight change in momentum between bulls and bears before the uptrend reasserts itself. Using trading volume data can make the drawing of the Three Black Crows pattern more accurate. The volume of the last bar during an uptrend leading to the pattern is relatively lower in typical conditions, while the Three Black Crows pattern has relatively high volume in each element of the group. In this scenario, as in our case, the uptrend was established by a small group of bulls and then reversed by a larger group of bears. Of course, this could also mean that a large number of small bullish trades collide with an equal or smaller group of high volume bearish trades. However, the actual number of market participants and trades is less important than the final volume that was ultimately recorded during the time frame. Restrictions on the use of three black crows If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels. Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern. Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback. In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy. Real example of Three black crows Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle. Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern In unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common. The weekly chart of the S&P500 Index (SPX) below, in particular, shows the occurrence of the pattern in the period starting in January 2022 and in the next 15 months until April 2023 (all crows combinations counted at least from 1-Month High). As it easy to notice, in each of these cases (marked on the graph below) after the candlestick pattern appeared, the price (after possible consolidations and rollbacks) tended to lower levels, or in any case, sellers sought to repeat the closing price of the last bar in series of the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern. Bottom Line 👉 As well as in usage of all other technical analysis indicators, it is important to confirm or refute its results using other indicators and analysis of general market conditions. 👉 Does History repeat itself? - Partially, yes.. it does. This is all because financial markets (as well as life) is not an Endless Rainbow, and after lovely sunny days, earlier or later, dark clouds may appear again, and again. Educationby PandorraUpdated 7
Sell in May, return another day. The truth.No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase: “Sell in May, return another day.” In Wikipedia it is written: “Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash” If we are to take this at face value then we should be unwinding out long positions until the Autumn. What does the chart say? On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 12. The facts: 1) The following month, June onwards, 10 from 12 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice. 2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend. In summary, 83% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds. Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of May (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities. Will say elsewhere what level this is. Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch boom! Ww by without_worries191971
SPX - Take Care Out There 😨SPX This week SPX collapsed out of the long term pitchfork and news of more war appears to have triggered this bearish reaction. I think this will make a 0.382 retracement as a minimum now an could even be much more 🤨. Not adviceShortby dRends3511
AI's Cool, but will there be a rug pull? I've seen a lot of people bearish on AI stocks hate a lot on things like ChatGPT or AI image tools. I think they're awesome. But is the AI rally setting up a rug pull? Let's look at the evidence to suggest there might be. In this post I'm going to cover lots of the rug pull setups pending over the markets. Note: These are patterns that are expected to create rug pulls if successful. Failure of them usually implies strong counter move. If these signals fail I've bias towards parabolic moves. AIQ. An ETF for AI. Looks like the textbook harmonic top. Matching with the huge versions of this in indices. Read the below price for a more in depth explanation of what we can expect from harmonic patterns. NVDA is the poster boy for the AI rally and NVDA is now getting into the area where even a really bullish forecast I think would be calling for a correction. Below is an Elliot forecast on NVDA at 500. Forecasting a high around 1,000 with a bit of spike tolerance. In that forecast, this would put in the ABC correction somewhere around here. www.tradingview.com In a more bearish forecast NVDA could be in a mega bubble and have a long way down. SMCI has been getting a lot of attention from it's hyper impressive gains, but might this be a butterfly top? Everyone got so excited about AI that even IBM went up. For the first time in a decade. But might that be a bat/crab? These are all big red flags and it's important to note the nature of harmonics is a complex structure. Four swings have to happen and start and end exactly where they do for the harmonic pattern to form. Now we have all of these big structures coming together on lots of big charts all at the same time. That's notable! When lots of big harmonics form something is going to happen. Either there's going to be a spectacular failure in which we should expect to see markets even stronger than they've been recently or we're heading into a brutal rug pull setup. In almost all instances big harmonics resolve like this. Boom if they break, bust if they work. Then we have things like the BTC trend breaking for the first time ever in 2022. Now being up to spots where there'd be a big rug pull reversal if it turned out there'd actually been a change in trend in BTC and we were in a huge bull trap. ETH still trades around the classic bull trap levels of 76-86 retracements. Final spike patterns from 2022 bull analysis hitting. Hitting on the indices. SPX In the Darling stocks. AAPL The small caps. Even the things people loved to hate, like CNVA. And all of this is happening inside the context of market previously going parabolic on rising interest rates. A condition that has happened before every instance of a major indices crash in the last 40 years. ============================================================================= And the best of it is ... no one cares. Everything things everything is just dandy. Now, it might be. The failure of the confluence of bear signals we have right now would seem to be most dandy indeed - but this is a risky zone! We have a lot of conditions warning us a rug pull might come. Shortby holeyprofitUpdated 4421
SPX: Going Lower1w and 1Month returns have already turned Red like the three weekly candles. Next week we will have the 3 Month returns turn red and .... Rate Cuts are out of the horizon...so why invest!! Shortby SWFguy0
SPX bigger pictureSP:SPX bigger picture - no bear case until you have a few closes below 4400. Instead of trying to time the top - it will be obvious once the trend has changed - plenty of time to join then. For now - trend is still up in the bigger picture - UNTIL you get a few closes under 4400 and below this long term wedge. There is the potential to just melt up into new ATH and 5000+ There is also the potential to drop back to 3500 As traders need to pay attention to important levels. No bear case until couple closes below 4400. If we get a couple of closes UNDER 4400 a SHORT triggers and we would target 3900-4200. If that area falls - then 3400-3500 area is next. If we get a couple of closes ABOVE 4600 a LONG triggers and we would target ATH at 4818.62 then slow melt up into 5000-5300.by Jovan888Updated 6
SPX1. SPX going bottom off this falling wedge right now in my opinion. 2. Falling DXY and USOIL are helping our case too. 3. Going be a great day for CRYPTOCAP:BTC and US Stocks. 4. Also Middle East Finally settling down. Longby PistolPeteno13
Mid April: Market pullbacks, inflation concerns; critical levelsIn April, the markets navigated a sluggish terrain, witnessing pullbacks from the record highs achieved in March for both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ experienced a marginal dip, bolstered by specific technology stocks. Persistent concerns surrounding inflation lingered, exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index data revealing a 3.5% annual increase in March, with core inflation climbing to 3.8%. These figures, coupled with inflation data surpassing expectations, tempered anticipations for immediate interest-rate adjustments. Our analysis pinpoints a notable development as the US stock market dipped below the critical 5141 level, meriting close observation. Signs suggest a potential further descent, potentially to close a gap, presenting a prospective opportunity for traders. We recommend traders monitor these levels vigilantly for insights into market trajectory and potential trading prospects, particularly surrounding the 4982 gap level. This juncture could serve as a pivotal support or resistance zone, contingent upon price action and market sentiment. Diligently tracking these benchmarks can furnish invaluable guidance for making well-informed trading decisions amidst the current market landscape. by Vestinda2
Channel life...Try conving me that she does not like channels or shop at Chanel ... lol This is what I see We still need to go and test both sides of the yellow channel We are bullish and bearish on various timeframes... This is gonna be fun!!!Shortby N934rex0
spx vs oilAlmost 140 years of #SPX priced in #CrudeOil I'll let you guess where this is heading... #inflation #recessionby Badcharts1
SPX500 - Support Becomes Resistance 📉Hi Traders ! Previously, The SPX500 Price Formed a Bearish Double TOP Pattern. Currently, The Price Broke The Support Level (5081.27 - 5051.43). This Key Level Becomes a New Resistance Level ! So, I Expect a Bearish Move 📉. TARGET: 4976.00🎯Shortby Hsan_BenhmedUpdated 7721
Unusually high volume in SPX yesterday.huge volume on SPX yesterday. highest I have ever seen since 2022. there were only couple of days in 2021-2022 that had such a huge volume. usually it hovers around 20k-30k total contracts. but yesterday it was 115K. whoa could this lead to further downside? or was it pre-positioning from people who knew about today's events beforehand?by Osiris9921
Volmageddon. Please Buckle Up. The Plane Will Be Landing SoonStocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon' events. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AMEX:SVXY graph says selling volatility is on the hot spot, like four and six years ago, in 2020 and 2018 respectively. The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018 and in February 2020, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. Investors appear to be taking risky bets again, specifically in VIX futures, which are assets that let investors bet on future volatility. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. Based on the magnitude of the move in VIX futures, there is an increasing threat that the rising level of greed in the 'short-volatility' trade, similar to what we saw in 2018 and in 2020, could result in an air-pocket drawdown of 5% or more in the S&P 500, to 4800 points respectively. The short-volatility trade became very popular strategy after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. The Cboe Volatility Index, which is also dubbed as the TVC:VIX or the market's "fear gauge," is sitting around 14, near historical lows. The rebound in interest in short-volatility strategies is once again posing a risk to the broader markets here as a negative catalyst can clearly spark a momentous, derivatives-driven selloff in the broader stock market like that which we saw in 2018 and in 2020. It's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient. The market shrugged off Tuesday's pullback quite fast. But it's worth keeping all your eyes on as all 2024 progress can be erased shortly. Going forward, these expirations will remain dates to keep in mind as the threat of volatility will be elevated as we move further into 2024. Technical graph for CBOE:SPX says we are still in the upside channel since Q4'22, near its upper line, with further perspective opportunities to erase 2024 gain, shrugging back to mid-line around 4800 points. Market breadth says also there're huge divergence in CBOE:SPX and in NASDAQ:NDX all the 2024, as 50-days indicators move firmly down all the year, while indices are still up so far. by PandorraUpdated 446
ID: 002 - PM02.21.2024 Next trade executed. 176 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. Short Strikes DELTA -15 Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 005 - pm03.18.2024 Next trade in line. 150 DTE. 24/15/5 Delta Strikes, 1-2-1 unbalanced butterfly. Small credit at inception. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
So far, my idea is playing out.I expect a 12345 retracement or a ABC correction to 3800 by October-November 2024. After that, one year of a new rally to 4800 pips. And then, the really crash by 2026 with a bottom of the market by 2027. Let´s see. Now, little by little: It´s my idea of a correction to 3800 in 6 months time correct? by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez1
Correction UpOn Thursday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced subdued trading as rising Treasury yields put pressure on stock prices. This occurred while investors analyzed remarks from Federal Reserve officials to gauge the future direction of interest rate cuts. Recent data revealed that the number of new unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. remained at low levels last week, indicating ongoing strength in the labor market. Following this report, yields on U.S. Treasury 10-year notes climbed, reaching 4.6223%. Looking ahead, if Treasury yields continue to rise, equity markets may face further challenges. Investors will likely keep a close eye on upcoming economic data and Fed communications to better understand the potential impact on interest rates and stock market dynamics.Longby sabiotrade0
S&P 500 - has sentiment shifted?US stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. It remains to be seen if history repeats the market action from Wednesday and Monday, when early gains evaporated as the sessions progressed. Yesterday’s price action saw all the US majors rally early on, before reversing sharply later in the day. Tech stocks were hardest hit. NVIDIA ended the day 3.4% lower, while Apple (-0.8%), Microsoft (-1.2%), Amazon (-1.4%), Meta (-1.4%) and Tesla (-1.8%) all contributed to weakness in the NASDAQ 100. Netflix was also weaker yesterday, falling 1.1%, ahead of its earnings report after tonight’s close. But stock indices did manage to rally off their lows following a relatively positive Fed Beige Book for March. This showed an improvement in financial conditions, with growth rising in ten out of the twelve Fed districts, up from eight out of twelve in February. Despite this, it feels as if we’re in a transition stage between relentless bullishness to a more bearish feel to market sentiment. Ever since the latest leg of the rally began last October, bad news has been shrugged off while good news has been disproportionately rewarded. It now feels as if the polarities are on the cusp of reversing. This has come as the prospect of imminent monetary stimulus in the form of a series of Fed rate cuts this year has been watered down substantially. In fact, concerns have increased recently that the Fed may be forced to hike rates first in another attempt to crush inflation, rather than give the markets what they want in the form of looser monetary policy. The next big test for the market is the first quarter earnings season. Next week could be key when five of the ’Magnificent Seven’ announce results.by TylerNorcross0
US500 / Imbalance Fill - Bullish SPXHello Traders! I expect a bullish on SPX as we see the imbalance fill and a perfect retracement from the OB, considering this movement a signal for weak bearish and a strong bullish sentiment. I expect the price to rise until the 5275 resistance level, with a potential set of a new All Time High. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also, share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ____________________________________ www.tradingview.com Longby GoodTradeST2