SPX deflacted by PCENon deflacted SPX: up 720% SPX deflacted by PCE: up 320% since 2020 lows, still not topping the 2021 highs. Huge negative divergenceby j_arrieta0
12,000 SPY Prediction by 2028 "Roaring 20s Hello Again" Start of 1995 the NASDAQ was at 1,578, Start of 2,000 it stood at 8,688 x of 5.505 If we take the bottom of composite 11,073 that takes us to 60,956 and this only the Nasdaq composite This would put the US stock markets combined over 300-400 Trillion dollars. The Federal Reserve will be forced to repeat the same policies lowering or holding rates steady to beat both inflation and unemployment, the last thing people are expecting is a parabolic melt up of all major markets. This is why I'm posting proof We're moving into the age of Bitcoin as a global reserve currency, robotics and Ai. The USA has started to accept miners logic and Bitcoin economics. While people waited for the recession, while people waited for the bubble to pop, the reality is it has just started. I'm surprised majority are still watching this unfold on the side-lines waiting for the "bubble to pop" but then again when they come back in saying its "not a bubble" I will be defensive. Longby CassandraCapital0
Inflation pushes risk assets higher - regardless of the dot plotFundamentals & Sentiment SPX500: - Earnings were strong - Nvidia is in uptrend USD: - Yields are falling - Big miss on PPI data + previous cold CPI Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 5m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Fib ext Risk: 0.38% Longby Cherry94Updated 0
Following the wealthy path of the 5 richest men in the world Warren Buffet runs many businesses so I would just use BRK.B as a proxy (so accuracy may differ) Surprised to see Amazon ranking the lowest ...... Read article here by dchua1969Updated 1
Let's make more money in 2024Read article here From chart, I see 2 possible options - one that retreats and find support at 4812 price level and continue to rally from here. Two, it was a false alarm and heads south and head towards 4694 price level before finding support and continue the rally upwards. Of course, the worst scenario is if for some reasons FED refuses to cut interest rates (market already price in 3 cuts) or worse increase one more rate hikes and the market can react badly and goes ahead to close the loop at 4422 price level. That is roughly a 8% drop from its current price so still acceptable. AI will continue to push the magnificent 7 stocks even higher (look for dips to accumulate) and I expect to see a rotational play back to Healthcare stocks , Consumer Staples which were not performing so well last year. Please DYODD Longby dchua1969Updated 1
The mountain trekking rules on SPXFor those of us who had gone trekking the mountains before, we know that to reach the peak , it is not a linear path. Often, we have to manage the steep downhill , climb the uneven uphill and these will go on for umpteen times before we get to the peak. The stock chart acts in a similar way, imo. You can see the red arrows showing the downhill where we have to accept and climb down. This does not mean for us to sell our positions unless you are a short term trader. Often, this is a resting point for us to accumulate else accept it as part and parcel of the trekking journey. The current rally since Oct last year has not had a meaningful downhill of sort so I had drawn several support level where it might revisit before continuing its uphill task. So you can buy-in tranches something like 10% at support level 1, 25% at support level 2 and 40% at support level 3. The % is based on your size of the capital invested so it may differs from each individual. Note that each time the price action visit the green dotted line (bullish trend) , it will nicely rebound again, sometimes touching and sometimes not. That is why it is even more important to be in the market than to TIME the market. Of course, if we can all predict with 100% accuracy, then all will show hand at support level 3 or even lower but Mr Market is smarter and more emotional than we. It could touch support level one and then continue its way up without giving the late comers another chance. Then, if you missed it, you will be buying at the next higher price. By bying in tranches based on the % above , you allow yourself a good opportunity to do dollar cost averaging and ensuring that you participate in the bullish trend RATHER than awaiting at the bottom (hoping) to scoop at lower price. The gap that remained to be filled up can be misleading as well. It can take weeks, months or even years before it is filled up , nobody knows for sure. And awaiting blindly for it make take you out of the market for a much longer time than anticipated. And that makes chart reading an interesting game and that is it is not 100% accurate despite all the tools available. Longby dchua1969Updated 1
US500SP:SPX TVC:SPX CBOE:SPX SPREADEX:SPX This analysis was performed by a neural network based on all signals from the indicator CCPR #US500 #1d #BrownDot 06/13/2024 | 5432.81 #google/gemini-flash-1.5 ### Analysis of the current situation: (funding and volume) *Funding: Funding on the US500 is in negative territory, indicating that sellers are more active than buyers. *Volume: Trading volume on the US500 has been above average in recent days, indicating increased interest in the market. ### Support and resistance level: * Resistance level: 5440, 5480 * Support level: 5380, 5340. ### Forecast for US500 price movement relative to the dollar: #### Brief immediate forecast: *Probability: 60% * Movement: The price is expected to drop by $500 in the coming days. * Signals: There is a strong signal for a downward reversal (BrownDot), which is confirmed by a weak buyer (BIGREDDOT) and negative funding. #### Medium-term forecast: *Probability: 40% * Movement: The price is expected to increase by US$500 in the medium term. * Signals: There is a downward divergence (DivergenceDOWN), which can be a trend reversal signal and preserves all previous downward signals. #### Motion reliability: * Up: 40% *Down: 60% ### Conclusions: * The current situation in the US500 market indicates a trend toward gradual price declines. * However, a downward divergence signal (DivergenceDOWN) can be a trend reversal signal and leaves all previous signals to fall. ### Recommendations for entering the position: * Short: Apply an open short position on US500 with a target of 5340, stop loss of 5400. * Long: thus delay opening long positions until the trend reverses. Additional factors to monitor: * News: Stay tuned for news that may appear in the $500 market, for example, for the publication of data on dynamics, interest rates, etc. *Volume: Follow trade analysis to ensure signal strength. Data for analysis: *Price: Keep an eye on the $500 price to determine its movement. * Indicators: Use indicators to give signals. *Volume: Follow trade research to identify strength signals.Shortby Ivan_Olyanskiy0
Long economystrong uptrend indicator today, looks good, the economy will not fall until the next bubbles or crisis, long for the indexes, be careful to the institutional shakeout and good luck. Longby Gilbert09670
S&P consolidates near highsUS stock index futures came under selling pressure this morning. This followed yesterday’s lacklustre session which saw modest gains for all the majors. Equity markets appear to be consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s big announcements, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 holding close to all-time highs. So much now hinges on where the CPI comes in. The consensus expectation is that Headline CPI (including food and energy) will hold steady at 3.4% in May, unchanged from April’s update. If so, that will be below the recent highs of 3.7% from September and October, but still well above the 3% recorded last July, and way above the Fed’s own 2% target. If recent history is any guide, then there should be widespread relief even if CPI only matches expectations. But the next big test for markets comes just a few hours later when the Federal Reserve’s FOMC concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting. While the market doesn’t expect any change in the Fed Funds rate, investors will be anxious to see if there are any changes to the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the last release in March. The SEP shows what FOMC members are forecasting for GDP, unemployment, inflation and, crucially, the Fed Funds rate for this year and beyond. The ‘Dot Plot’ should provide clarity over the likelihood of rate cuts for the rest of this year. Crucially, do FOMC members expect to reduce rates by 25 or 50 basis points before year-end? And are there any members predicting a rate hike first? After this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, so market sentiment could shift quickly, depending on his outlook for the US economy, and on inflation in particular. By mid-afternoon, the S&P 500 had fallen further as had the Dow, while the mid-cap domestically focused Russell 2000 had lost over 1%. In contrast, the NASDAQ 100 was in positive territory. Apple, which is a constituent of the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ 100, was up 5% on news of its latest foray into AI. But it had an outsized positive effect on the NASDAQ 100 due to its weighting in the tech-heavy index. by TylerNorcross0
SPx500 FORECASTOverview: - Current Price: 5,348.8, down by 0.10% (-5.3 points). - Price Action: The index has been in a general uptrend, with some recent consolidation near the highs. Key Observations: 1. Trend: - The overall trend is bullish with higher highs and higher lows. - There has been significant upward movement in late May, followed by some consolidation and minor pullbacks in early June. 2. Recent Price Movement: - After reaching a high around 5356.8, the price has pulled back slightly and is currently consolidating just below this level. - The consolidation near the highs indicates a potential continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might be gathering strength for another move higher. 3. Bearish and Bullish Levels: - Resistance: The recent high around 5356.8 is acting as a resistance level. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum. - Support: The previous swing low around 5280.0 can be considered a key support level. If the price breaks below this level, it could indicate a potential trend reversal or a deeper correction. 4. Volume and Volatility: - The chart does not show volume, but the recent price action suggests that volatility has been relatively low in the consolidation phase. Traders will likely watch for an increase in volume accompanying a breakout or breakdown to confirm the move. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: - If the price breaks above the resistance at 5356.8 with strong momentum and volume, it could continue the uptrend, targeting new highs. - In this case, the next psychological levels to watch would be around 5400.0 and 5450.0. 2. Bearish Scenario: - If the price fails to break the resistance and falls below the recent consolidation low around 5280.0, it could signal the start of a correction. - In this scenario, the next support levels to watch would be around 5220.0 and 5200.0. 3. Sideways Movement: - The price could continue to consolidate between 5280.0 and 5356.8, indicating indecision in the market. - Traders might wait for a decisive breakout or breakdown from this range to determine the next significant move. Conclusion: The S&P 500 index is currently in a bullish trend with a consolidation phase near recent highs. A breakout above 5356.8 could continue the uptrend, while a breakdown below 5280.0 might lead to a correction. Traders should watch for volume and momentum to confirm any potential moves. Key Levels: Bullish Lines: 5377, 5405 Pivot Point: 5328.5 Bearish Line: 5300, 5251 by RojBarwari1
US500 SELLThe market is currently testing the current structure which is forming a divergence on the daily TF. Based on price action , the market is forming a reversal chart pattern on the 4HR TF. We could see sellers coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor. Shortby WiLLProsperForex0
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.Educationby citsvarUpdated 0
Another 7 DTE on SPX opened todayThe legs: -5140 +5130 / -5395 +5405 Jun 11th New position is marked with the yellow lines, atm I still have open an SPX 7 DTE which I have now rolled twice and if price ends up within the confines of the first Iron Condor, that would be a break even trade. New trade details: Premium: $115 Fees: $7.13 Premium - Fees: $107.87 Capital allocated: $892.13 % gain on investment: 12.09%by leongabanUpdated 0
Sacred Trading In light of the recent Mercury retrograde cycle, we have observed significant market movements that align with key zones, suggesting potential reversal points. Let me clarify: while I acknowledge the historical correlations between planetary movements and events, I do not base my trading decisions on astrology, nor do I consider myself an astrologer. This analysis is simply a brief exploration of astrotrading over a two-day period, aimed at sharing my observations and experiences. Over the weekend, I studied various planetary constellations and noted that certain alignments seem to influence market reversals. The key constellations are: Sextiles (60°): Often indicate three peak patterns. Trines (120°): Suggest rectangular trendline patterns, typically flatter than 45°. Conjunctions (0°): May signal immediate reversals depending on the planets involved. Squares (90°): Typically align with 45° angle trendlines within a square. Oppositions (180°): Indicate the start of new planetary cycles. The most significant planetary influences include: Full Moon and New Moon phases Mercury transits and conjunctions Venus/Moon angles Mars/Moon alignments, which can cause market volatility, irritability (notably in the current cycle) Occasionally, Saturn, Jupiter, and Uranus can also have a reversing influence. This exploration is a homage to Mercury, the messenger of god, and an attempt to share insights with you guys.by Underlayer0
Simplicity is king, lolSome say Pitchfork is outdated and some say being simple is the key. This time I think this pitchfork and last nonfarm news' are duets pretty well, so something correction is coming.Shortby BtNd0
Dopamine rules the world I guess you heard about dopamine... and the only thing dopamine loves is more dopamine... In the graph below you can see how dopamine spikes work based on the new Dopamine celebrity mr Huberman tacticsplus.com So how the party started how it's going and how it might end. 1) Everything started with the Covid outbreak 2) Then the FED started buying financial assets 3) Government handed out free money to everyone 4) We had the first stage of the party where the majority of people havehad never played this game before (dopamine loves new dopamine sources aka the unexpected) and that's how we wen to Fun 1 phase, think of it as someone who has never drink and this was the first time he went onto a party and got drunk... and he liked it because it was something completely new in terms of dopamine rush 5)The next day (year) we had the return to the baseline happiness but quite above from where it started but hey what we said? dopamine loves dopamine and dopamine does not care where you get your dopamine from it only cares about MORE DOPAMINE 6)Now we are going again to the party but this time the amount dopamine we need to get to the same high or above is much higher... 7) we are waiting to see how it will work out What i understand from my small experience in markets is the following : markets love to move in the point of MAX PAIN and most of the money are lost in HYPERBOLAS why? 1) Shorts get squeezed forced to close their positions 2) Longs have FOMO and jump in the party at the very worst moment In that was both longs and shorts are losing... but hey who is winning? 1) Those who bought the return to baseline 2) Those who did not short yet and waited for the fun part 2 So in others terms whether you are a long player or short the key is to go contrarian from popular belief and be patient... ALL OF THE ABOVE ARE 101% IN MY IMAGINATION! THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE JUST SOME PHILOSOPHICAL THOUGHTS I WANTED TO SHARE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND NEVER FOLLOW OTHER PEOPLE'S ADVICE BLINDLY. by Philoslother0
Possible Buy Scenario for S&P500 todayThis is the buy scenario I'll be considering today. The chart speaks for itself, but if anyone requires more context I'd be glad to provide it. Keep it simple. Trade wisely.Longby 5stonesUpdated 0
SP500 WILL KEEP RISINGSP500 Is approaching main trend line and looks weak on smaller time frame. I think we will see a long squeeze that will make the price to drop, probably around 5340-5330. At this level i Will look for a long entry that may come later with the NFP. I think we will see new highs next week, after a flash crashLongby CryptoForexGem1
SPX - Mini Futures Given it's all markets factored in - not sure if tech analysis works here but.. Fib extension right? Keep it simple. Quick look at fib extension and levels look respected given support resistance. by hmaroudas0
US500, support confluence could built bullish momentumWe have a nice confluence of 1H and 4H support at S&P. I'm entering with a long position to potentially follow to new ATHs, if the market sentiment pick up the trend again.Longby KyreanUpdated 0
W pattern In SPX Daily.Fellow traders! We have a "W" or double bottom pattern on the daily in SPX Oanda. Call it what ever you want, I call it UP. Best we can to as traders is to confide in our charts and call out what you see. Right or wrong , as long as you are right 60% to 80% or higher you are making CASH $$$. Markets are by design to throw you around the room and for a loop from time to time so just be patient. Let's see if money is to be made with this pattern. 5404.5 to start. 5493 area if we break from 5404 area. Trade with patients and trade like a machine, not with emotion. Stick to a plan and set a stop behind your profits at all times. Use a parabolic sar or just below a 10ma as a line in the sand for a stop point. Best of luck in all your trades .Longby Trade-Farmer111