HOGUpdated notes - I'm a bit "iffy" on this one. A Gartley may have developed. Above that, look for the Crab.
HAR trade ideas
HOG day trade analysis for tomorrow. A gap down below 60.50 is a nice retest gap.
A gap up above 66.50 would be the best bullish gap.
Newsome calls for a gap down. If we do not clear 60.50 strongly, HOG likely could bounce off that low.
Continued Bearish Action in HOGA NR7 pattern formed from 63.91 up to 66.33. Price action broke below the pattern today, which typically signifies a downside breakdown that is equal to the size of the pattern ($2.34 in range). Projecting downside to 61.85 within the next 7 sessions.
Mean reversionWhen 200ema is almost flat, i can see that the price is range bound.
Harley Davidson is in an obvious downtrend channel.
After better than expected earning, it gaps up near channel top.
It would be interesting to see if price can have another gap up to break channel top and test 200ema.
My short order is welcoming at:
1. 64
2. 65.5
3. 67
$HOG shark & 5-0 for longShark completed @58.78 , 5-0 finished wave3 on 161.8 ret. (double 161.8 confluence) for long into shark T1 @63.81 and 5-0 wave4 completion @65.72
Bear plans to backpack by Harley DavidsonA mid-term trendline from Oct 2012 has been broken on end of July 2014. Price attempted a retest but was rejected by the support turned resistance trendline as well as cushion between 8ema & 20ema
Currently, it formed a triple top and price just hang on 60.54. A break below that would signal at least a mid-term bear market with first target profit of 55.5 and the second 50
My short was triggered at 64.50
HOG always seems to move higher from August to EOYSeems to be trading in an upward range for 5 years.
You can find a spot around August where it usually bottoms and then moves higher
Target entry: $60-61
Exit: $74
Early Bearish Signs ... Is #HarleyDavidson Petering Out? | #NYSEFriends,
Cruising around the NYSE charts, my predictive analysis and forecasting system pointed to a potential bear, seen in Harley Davidson's stck ($HOG - #NYSE).
First, a recent relief rally occurred, but failed to carve a new structure high. instead, it fell square into a price range I had defined as "EAGLE" (for Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry for a counter-trend opportunity). Since then, price rolled right at the level (today) where an early bearish market reversal signal is getting ready to print. I expect that a further slide in price might sound that bearish alarm.
For the time being, two potential targets have emerged as the signal remains pending, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 54.50 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability, corresponding to an occult geometry support level
and
2 - TG-2 = 48.82 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability, corresponding to a potential proprietary Great White Pattern
As indicated above, the system can produce directional signs of market reversal, but until a signal is generated, it remains just that: a sign.
OVERALL:
This trader's directional bias is bearish, whereas the predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to bearish, based on potential bearish signs defined above. More on this as the market unfolds.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
If interested to receive my TradingView forecast instantly through Twitter:
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Here is a recent forecast:
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Disclaimer:
- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis, classic technical analysis, basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
$HOG: Long Term Trend = SlaughterhouseLeg Start at 07 highs as recently been tested, and ready to retrace the legs back down. We should see a small pop in the coming weeks before returning down the leg.
riding the hoghog moved the earnings date up, this might be considered a bullish move.
or they just wanted to report on a thurs instead of a monday.
bad news usually gets pushed back to a later date.
