This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping). This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it...
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Right now Italy doesn't look so good with capital flights and a weakening economy. On the technical side of things, price had a nice reaction with the lows which happens to be the all time lows in the Italian bonds. This is a place I'd look for longs but first , I'd need proof that buyers are still here.
hello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal...
Are you afraid of the Italians? Yes. The 10-year government bond interest rate track shows no optimistic signs. Although we are waiting for a slump because of the pace of the first wave of the triple wave structure at the correction phase of the first wave of the triple wave structure, but a few days maybe a week and the decline in the interest rate may end. Then,...
Our negative bias remains in play as prices continue to hold below the recent flip zone.
BTPs bounced the key resistance area and have closed below a recent flip zone on the back of fears that Italy will not comply with EU rules in forming it's next budget, that contains flat-tax proposals and a hefty pension reform. Look for further losses today.
Italy's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget. Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains. Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.
Italian BTPs are under pressure again, after bouncing recent highs. The narrative this time round is a top-level meeting amongst ministers to plan the next budget. The market fears that Italy's populist government will pressure EU fiscal rules...
Very pretty triangle forming in potential B wave suggests attempts for another leg higher in coming weeks to break up to +50bps+ Need confirmation first (staying above tri support) then breakout.
Market participants are watching this move in BTPs today, as Northern League leader Salvini is asking for the resignation of Italy's Finance Minister Tria.
Triangle of minor fourth wave still in play (just completed c possibly). Higher in d then pullback in e to finish wave iv before thrust higher to 3.80% in coming weeks/months to finish wave 3/C before wider consolidation at higher yield levels
Since the recent close above 1.40% the spread widening has accelerated as anticipated. MAY (repeat may) get some pause in the 2.00%-2.12% zone but imo the next logical stopping points are not until those levels marked on the chart....
Looks oversold based on MACD and STOCH indicators
Follow up to posts from around a month/6 weeks ago....Italian 10yr yields headed higher to at least 3.80% imo. Currently in a wave iv triangle (just finished c, need to do d then e) before a thrust higher in yield towards target in coming few weeks/months