So besides the deteriorating economic data (use PMI not CPI- CPI is what has already happened akin to looking at the rear view mirror in a car. PMI is looking at what IS coming akin to looking through the windshield in a car), what is another signal that a recession is coming? The yield curve and how people would rather hold money in the short term rather than the...
If multiple stocks tanking 20% on earnings isn't enough to convince you that the bubble is over, here's a reminder about rate inversion. It's well into negative territory now, everyone expecting rate cuts.
Small caps look super weak, no liquidity at all.
Have a nice weekend, and remember to do your Christmas shopping before the tariffs start, lol.
Here's the issue, the market already has more than one rate cut priced in as shown, if the Feds don't signal an additional cut next week, we're going to see an adjustment.... market will drop.
The US Government Bond 3 Month Yield Is falling ahead of any official rate cut by Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board. This effectively tells us the market is pricing in a rate cut being announced at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30 2019.
This is more significant than most traders realise. It has become common place on Wall Street...
3 month 2.12- vs 10 year 1.99. fill the gap. short 10-year, long 3-month. the inversion is likely to correct over time. but insanity that the 3 month yield is more than the 10 year
Now that everyone expects rate cuts, the inversion won't go away until the rates are actually cut far enough to get this back to positive. Market has 2 rate cuts priced in already for this year, watch out if it doesn't happen.
The fed has been holding out on rate hikes and has kept the status quo ever since the return of volatility back in October 2018.
The FED has kept citing the economy as strong, yet they kept interest rates flat instead of raising them. They are now going to decrease rates with a maxed out balanced sheet showing they have no confidence in the current strength of...
Rate inversion again as predicted, right on top of the line I drew. Definitely a potential for things to get ugly. Be careful if buying the dip. All cash right now, and if I buy in, it's daytrading only.
Market tanks, people buy bonds, we're close to another rate inversion. If the market tanks on China news, we're bound to invert again. Keep an eye on it before you go long on anything,
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US03MY (Derived Data)
