The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke again today at a Brookings Institution event. His comments sparked a rally in markets (likely including short covering) that pushed the S&P 500 SP:SPX up about 122 points, or 3.10%, to close at 4080. The Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX rose 4.58% on the day, closing at 12,030.
But the bond market is sending less sanguine...
As Bullard (FED) spoke, the bond market is challenging the narrative of a soft landing.
The 3 month to 10 year yield curve, which has hit every recession in the last 20 years, inverts to its lowest point. Signal that the bond market expects a recession, slowdown or anything that does not mean a soft landing
This is another thing that is getting everyone EXCITED.
It is going to invert soon. Once that happen, as you can see in the past, the Fed will PIVOT.
Analysis also indicated that the MOVE Index shown previously will hit a new low the same time this 10y03m inverts.
THE FED TYPICALLY CUTS RATES ON AVERAGE TWO MONTHS AFTER THE MOVE REACHES BOTTOM.
So do you...
Hello Traders, Investors and Friends, have a nice holiday!
The US10Y bonds yield and the US03M bonds yield has flipped upside down since this 2022.
It has only flipped upside down three times in history since the 20th century.
The first time is in 2000 dot-com bobble, the second is in 2008 market crash, the third time is in 2019 unlimited QE
I think there’s a...
Not financial advice. The essence of investing & trading is the intelligent and patient preying on the greed, fear, impatience, addiction and ignorance of the majority. It's definitionally
*GET OUT FROM THE STOCK MARKET*
A number of news sources reported in the lat 2 days that J Powell's favorite yield curve as a recession indicator is an inverted 3 month and 10 year.
These are now inverted and have only inverted 3 other times according to this data
Before the 2000 crash
Before the Global Financial Crisis
Before Covid lockdowns
Its virtually assured at this point...