Working hard to refine my periodicity modelling, but seems to predict reasonably top's and bottom's. We have the special case that tomorrow's cycle bottom coincides with FED meeting, so depending on USDJPY short time movement it is reasonable to go neutral till Wed. evening or Thursday. The range of movement of GDX is rather limited. We should expect a 20.50 to 24...
gold/silver index simple idea on weekly:
February low got broken indicating a trendchange.
R/R for this month is better to the downside.
A test of the bottom of the bb band area would be apreciated.
I don't expect it to break 71.63.. The 76 area would be a nice area to reach before we can look for a turn back up.
Longer term the trend is strong and remains up.
A view on miners indices (hui + xau) shows that we reached a tripple resistance consisting of a head and shoulders neckline, a longer term support line and the upper border of the downward channel. With the current weak momentum in Gold I do not expect the break of the tripple resistance, but if this happens one should clearly go long.
The Gold/Silver index is well supported here, against the former long term downtrend resistance, now turned support, plus the recent uptrend mode (most frequent price in the advance).
If we have good follow through to the upside tomorrow, we can expect a sizeable bullish move in precious metals.
For both gold and silver instruments, you can enter longs at market...
7-7-16
XAU @102.50 – bullish – Posts 23-month new highs following breaking through 200-week MA
XAU extended the strong rally from the 77.99 low (May 23, 2016 weekly low) through 93.66 (May 2, 2016 high) and the 200-week moving average (currently at 92.17) to post new 23-month new highs. Further upside opens 106.01 (July 2014 monthly range high) and then 115.21...
6-26-16
XAU @93.70 – bullish – Posts 21-month new highs following upside break thru 4.5-year down trendline
XAU rallied strongly from the 38.36 all-time low (January 2016) to post a new 21-month high at 95.36 (June 2016). The move was supported by the upside break through the 4.5-year falling trendline (September 2011/September 2012 lower highs), suggesting...
it may actually be a better trade than the straight long gold.
game plan: triple bottom around the same level than the 2009 low.
Gold was trading around 700 at the time. At 1150 on gold with oil price being lower and therefore cost of energy being lower, XAU could have potential higher.
This sector could have bottomed out.
Same supporting level than al bottoms since the 80's.
After a correction of 73%
Buy 5% and keep in the back book for the long run
The Gold & Silver index ( XAU ) has reached a key support level. The last time it was there was in 2008. I'm also looking to go long the gold miners ( GDX) in a few weeks.
Cheers
Algo
