The bullish scenario is still possible, although a rule has been violated for Wave 4, which should not fall below the peak of Wave 1. This sometimes happens - for non-standard reasons. Now this reason is panic due to coronavirus. In the bullish scenario, the failed Wave 5 is most likely to form (when the peak of Wave 5 is below the peak of Wave 3).
Ukrainian hryvnia demonstrated big gains against USD from late January to mid march.
Surge was very fast. the fastest since UAHUSD recovered from biggest fall in early 2015.
So I appreciate it as an active wave.
I expect UAHUSD to resume its uptrend after this correction is completed.
After dollar collapse and major run to strong positions of Ukrainian currency, as i think elliot waves could be applied. In the near future price should retrace a little and stay stable till the next major period, which is starting from September. Although international money loan can disturb a situation for a while, we ll see.
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Over the three years the summer orders always bringing back the price to some reasonable levels. Winter season with New Year and depending on help from Union always bring crashes, i believe the price might see some struggle again, but overall, even with the paying big loan back by country, currency still have a sign of holding on.