Get started
SPX500 FutureSPX500 FutureSPX500 Future

SPX500 Future

No trades
OverviewNewsIdeasMindsTechnicalsSeasonals

Trade ideas

S&P500 Next stop.. 6925The S&P500 index (SPX) is about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that took it from the bottom of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) contact to having recovered the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the whole correction. The next technical Target is of course the 6925 All Time High (ATH). Since however we are about to form a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross, a technical pull-back is expected as both previous such crosses since August 13, resulted into a short-term Top. If the IH&S completes its technical expansion, then after this correction, a test of the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 7200 is possible. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPX500 – OUTLOOK | Price Action SetupSPX500 – Technical Outlook Ares Management is drawing attention ahead of the S&P 500’s upcoming rebalancing announcement. Index additions often generate buying pressure as passive funds adjust their holdings, and the broader market sentiment today will be influenced by the ADP employment data. Technical Analysis SPX500 continues to show bullish strength while trading above 6844. As long as price holds above this pivot level, the index is expected to push toward 6888, and a breakout above this zone could extend the move toward 6918. However, a 1H close below 6844 would signal a bearish correction, targeting 6814 initially, followed by 6771 if downside momentum increases. Key Levels Pivot Line: 6844 Support: 6815 · 6771 Resistance: 6888 · 6918
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
SPX selloff could have just begunRising Japanese 10Y bond yield will reverse the carry trade of borrowing in JPY and investing in other higher yielding assets in other countries. With Japan inflation on the rise and BOJ cornered by very high debt/gdp their ability to keep buying government debt could be limited. Also long term cycle of Japan225 supports this idea Since GFC all the central banks, mainly the USA FED have been supporting the markets by QE and the governments racking up massive debt to mitigate one crisis after another. Have you wondered, if all the government are in debt, who is buying these debts? Well, its asset management firms like Blackrock and others using your pension and super funds to invest in these debts. In other words when you take a mortgage on your house you are staking your current and future savings, without you knowing it. Ha. Ha. Your mortgage is repackaged by your bank and sold to these funds, who use your super and pension as MARGIN money!!! That is why you are now allowed to use your super to borrow by law, because that right is given to your fund managers
SP:SPX
by krisoz
S&P 500 — Technical QE vs. Classic QEThe US Federal Reserve (FED) unveiled yesterday its final monetary policy decision of the year with an interest rate cut on the federal funds rate to 3.75%. Jerome Powell held a press conference and the FED updated its macroeconomic projections for 2026. There is now a complete balance between the unemployment-rate objective and the inflation objective. Let us also keep in mind that the Quantitative Tightening (QT) program has been halted since Monday, December 1st, and that the FED stands ready to use the balance-sheet monetary tool to reduce any emerging tension in the interbank and money markets and to ensure that bond yields do not exert pressure on the State and on companies. While the S&P 500 index is evolving at record levels and one must justify a valuation level at a historic high, would a “technical QE” from the FED during 2026 be sufficient to contain long-term interest rates and support the equity market? It is essential to understand that a “technical QE” is not a classic Quantitative Easing (QE) program and that its impact on long-term interest rates remains limited. In that sense, a technical QE does provide short-term liquidity, but it does not constitute a structural liquidity support. Concretely, a technical QE mainly aims at stabilizing the functioning of the money market: repo operations, temporary balance-sheet adjustments, targeted interventions in case of stress. This prevents short-term rates from suddenly spiking, but it does not mean that the FED is entering a large-scale easing cycle. Investors should therefore avoid overinterpreting the term “QE.” Here, the objective is operational, not macroeconomic. Where a classic QE compresses the entire yield curve, stimulates credit and fuels a genuine cycle of risk appetite, a technical QE acts more like a “shock absorber” than an engine. It prevents a liquidity crisis, but it does not create a new structural momentum. For an equity market already at historical highs, the nuance is essential. Should it be minimized for all that? Not really. In an environment where valuations are very high in the US market and where the slightest stress on rates can trigger sharp profit-taking, the simple ability of the FED to intervene surgically to calm markets can be enough to maintain a climate of confidence. A technical QE is not fuel for a new bullish leg, but it can prevent turbulences that could weaken US indices. In summary, while a classic QE creates an expansionary environment, a technical QE mostly creates a stable one. And for an S&P 500 sitting at record highs, stability may already represent a meaningful form of support. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
SP:SPXEducation
by Swissquote
US500 DAILY BUY/SELLTechnical Analysis of the Chart (US500 – Daily Timeframe) 1. Overall Trend The US500 (S&P 500) is in a strong long-term uptrend, as shown by: Price trading above the 50-day (green), 100-day (red), and 200-day (blue) moving averages. Higher highs and higher lows throughout most of the year. 2. Current Market Structure Sideways / Consolidation Phase The chart highlights a consolidation box where the price has been moving sideways. Multiple wicks and uneven peaks indicate market indecision. The drawn Fibonacci retracement suggests the market has been reacting around the 0.382 and 0.618 levels, which are typical reversal zones. 3. Short-Term Bearish Setup The highlighted red zone (trade setup) suggests: A potential short position with: Entry near recent highs. Stop-loss above resistance. Target significantly lower (near the 0.618 – 0.65 Fibonacci region). The RR (Risk/Reward) ratio is shown as 12:16, which indicates the idea of a large move downward. Bearish Projection The brown/red line drawn forward shows: Expected drop in price. A possible relief bounce. Followed by a deeper fall reaching the lower support area. This move is expected within ~31 bars (45 days). 4. Key Support Levels Main support zone highlighted at approximately 5991 – 6230. The 200-day moving average (blue) is far below current levels, meaning: The market could decline significantly while still staying in a long-term uptrend. 5. Volume & Momentum Indicators The volume bars show decreasing momentum, which often precedes a reversal. The histogram at the bottom suggests: Weakening bullish momentum. Possible bearish momentum building. 6. Forecast Path (Illustrated in the Chart) The drawing suggests: Short-term: Sharp decline from current resistance. Mid-term: A corrective bounce upward. Another leg down forming a deeper low. Long-term: Strong recovery upwards after bottoming. This is a classic A-B-C corrective pattern. 7. Overall Interpretation The chart shows the idea that the market may be topping after a strong uptrend. A correction of around 6–10% could occur before the next major rally. The setup drawn is speculative but follows common technical structures: Resistance rejection Fibonacci retracement Corrective wave pattern
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by WallStreetVeteran
S&P 500 Bullish Layers Setup — Demand Zone Reload Opportunity!🟩 Asset: US500 / S&P 500 — Index Market Trade Opportunity Guide (Swing / Day Trade) 💡 Trade Plan Overview A bullish continuation plan is confirmed as the index builds strong demand-zone pressure, supported by broad fundamental economic drivers including resilient U.S corporate earnings, easing treasury yields, and steady sector rotation behavior. This setup favors structured long positioning using disciplined multi-layer entries. 🎯 Trade Execution Plan (Thief Strategy — Layering Entry Method) 🟦 Entry Strategy (Layer Entries) You can enter at any price, but here is the structured Thief layering approach: Buy Limit Layer 1: 6,750 Buy Limit Layer 2: 6,800 Buy Limit Layer 3: 6,850 (You may add more layers if you prefer deeper dips — fully customizable to your personal risk appetite.) 🛡️ Stop Loss (SL) Thief SL: 6,650 👥 Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), feel free to adjust SL based on your approach and risk preference. This SL is not mandatory — trade at your own risk tolerance. 🎯 Target Zone (TP) Main Target: 7,050 The moving average cluster above current price acts as a strong resistance. Market structure signals a potential overbought trap, so locking profits as we approach 7,050 is wise. 👥 Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), this TP is not compulsory — take profits whenever your system confirms opportunities. 📊 Key Market Notes Demand zones are holding strongly Momentum shifts show bullish continuation Price action respects MA levels Fundamentals + rotation fuels upside Trap zones above — manage exits properly 🔗 Correlation Watchlist (Related Markets You Must Track) Monitoring correlated markets strengthens decision-making. Here are highly relevant pairs/assets: 💲 1. US Dollar Index (DXY) Why important: S&P 500 typically moves inverse to the USD. When DXY weakens, US500 often gains momentum. Strong USD → pressure on equities, especially tech. Watch for: USD pullback = bullish support for US500 USD breakout = equities face resistance 💲 2. US10Y / US Treasury Yields Correlation: Yields rising = stock market weakness Yields falling = S&P 500 bullish fuel Watch for: Yields softening → risk-on flows Freight in yield spikes → temporary pullbacks 💲 3. VIX (Volatility Index) Correlation: Low VIX = stable bullish conditions Rising VIX = possible correction / trap Watch for: VIX drop under key zones → bullish confirmation Spike above resistance → protect profits 💲 4. NASDAQ 100 (US100) Correlation: Strong tech = strong S&P 500 Tech weakness often leads broader index lower Watch for: Mega-cap earnings cycles AI sector momentum Bond yield reaction on tech stocks 💲 5. Crude Oil (USOIL / WTI) Correlation: High oil prices → inflation pressure → Fed concerns Lower oil → relief → bullish S&P 500 Watch for: Oil spike = possible S&P 500 pullback Oil cool down = index strengthens 💲 6. Gold (XAU/USD) Correlation: Indirect & risk sentiment-based Risk-off flows go into gold → equities may pause Watch for: Gold breakout = risk-off environment Gold drop = risk-on supports S&P 500 📘 Final Thoughts This setup follows the well-tested Thief layering strategy, combining technical demand zones with macroeconomic alignment. Stick to your personal risk comfort, manage layers wisely, and let price action guide exits.
TICKMILL:US500
by The-Thief
US500 Bullish Structure: Pullback → Breakout Continuation📈 SPX500/US500 Bullish Breakout Setup | Swing Trade Opportunity 🎯 🔥 Market Overview Asset: S&P 500 Cash CFD (SPX500/US500) Trade Type: Swing Trade (Medium-term) Bias: BULLISH ✅ Current Price: ~$6,614 (Nov 20, 2025) 📊 Trade Setup & Technical Analysis 🎯 Strategy Confirmation ✅ Weighted Moving Average Pullback pattern confirmed ✅ Price consolidating near key resistance zone ✅ Bullish structure intact above major support levels 🚀 Entry Strategy Breakout Entry: Enter AFTER confirmed breakout above $6,750 resistance Wait for price to close above $6,750 with strong volume Avoid premature entries; confirmation is key Multiple position sizing recommended after breakout validation 🛑 Stop Loss Considerations Suggested SL: $6,630 area ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This is a reference level only. Adjust your stop loss based on: Your personal risk tolerance Account size and position sizing Trading strategy requirements Trade at your own risk – customize stops to fit YOUR plan 🎯 Target Zones Primary Target: $6,900-$6,950 zone 📌 Key Resistance Factors at Target: Moving Average confluence acting as resistance barrier Potential overbought conditions expected Historical supply zone overlap Risk of bull traps in this region ⚠️ Profit-Taking Strategy: Consider scaling out near $6,900 Lock partial profits before $6,950 Trail stops for remaining position This is YOUR trade – take profits when YOUR strategy signals 💰 Related Assets to Monitor 📉 Correlated US Indices NASDAQ 100 (NAS100/US100) 📱 Tech-heavy index; leads SPX during risk-on moves Correlation: ~85-90% positive Key Level: Watch $21,000 breakout zone DOW JONES 30 (US30) 🏭 Blue-chip indicator; confirms broad market strength Correlation: ~80-85% positive Key Level: $44,500 resistance critical RUSSELL 2000 (US2000) 🏢 Small-cap indicator; risk sentiment gauge Correlation: ~70-75% positive Key Level: $2,400 breakout = bullish confirmation 💵 Dollar Correlation US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY/USDX) 💵 Correlation: ~60-70% INVERSE (negative) Dollar weakness = SPX strength typically Key Level: Watch $106.50 support; break = SPX boost 🌍 Global Risk Assets VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) ⚡ Correlation: ~80% INVERSE (fear gauge) VIX below $15 = bullish SPX environment VIX spike above $20 = caution signal GOLD (XAUUSD) 🥇 Correlation: Variable ~30-40% (flight to safety indicator) Gold weakness + SPX strength = risk-on confirmed 📋 Risk Disclosure ⚠️ CRITICAL REMINDERS: I am NOT providing financial advice These levels are reference points only YOU must determine your own entry, stop loss, and take profit levels Trade with money you can afford to lose Market conditions change rapidly – adapt accordingly Past performance does not guarantee future results 🎓 Professional Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% of capital per trade Use proper position sizing calculators Set alerts for key levels, don't watch charts 24/7 Have a written trading plan before entering 🔔 Action Plan Checklist ✅ Monitor price action near $6,750 ✅ Confirm breakout with volume and candle close ✅ Set alerts for correlated assets (DXY, VIX, NAS100) ✅ Calculate position size based on YOUR risk tolerance ✅ Define exit strategy BEFORE entry ✅ Review market news and economic calendar 💬 Final Thoughts This setup offers a risk-defined swing trade opportunity on the S&P 500 with clear technical levels. The weighted moving average pullback pattern provides structural support for the bullish thesis, while the $6,750 breakout level offers a defined entry trigger. Remember: Markets are unpredictable. This analysis is educational and reflects technical observations only. YOUR trading decisions are YOUR responsibility. 🙏 Trade Safe, Trade Smart If this analysis helps you, drop a like 👍 and follow for more setups! Let's build wealth together responsibly. #SPX500 #SP500 #US500 #SwingTrade #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #Trading #ForexTrading #IndexTrading #BullishSetup #TradingView #MarketAnalysis
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by The-Thief
SPX500 Forecast According to my forecast, SPX500 is now in a long channel where the price has almost reached its upper limit, but there is a chance that the price will break out of the channel and there will be a rapid long, although I personally doubt this because on the daily timeframe we already have a divergence, so there is a greater chance that the price will bounce off the upper limit and go short. Also, a short long is indicated by the expanding wedge, the height of which should work out almost to the remaining fibo height. This is a more global forecast and we can see the result of its working out in just a few weeks
FX:SPX500Long
by VOLODYMYRIVNA
S&P 500 index Bull Run Continues — Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutThe S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) has shown solid bullish momentum over the last 7 trading days, gaining more than +5% during this period. The S&P 500 has once again moved back above Important Support lines, and it now appears to be breaking through a resistance line as well. From a classical technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 seems to be moving inside a symmetrical triangle pattern. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the S&P 500 looks to be completing Wave 4. A confirmed breakout above the upper line of the symmetrical triangle could validate the end of Wave 4. I expect the S&P 500 to continue its upward movement and extend toward the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and the Resistance zone ($6,902_$6,875). What’s your view on the S&P 500 index and the broader U.S. stock market? First Target: $6,859 Second Target: $6,887 Stop Los(SL): $6,774(Worst) 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by pejman_zwin
1
To chase or not to chase?Deploying risk at or near highs while volatility is getting smacked might not be the "best" risk. I'd much rather see a pullback of some sort before attempting highs. This week was a challenge, price action was sloppy, bears attempted multiple times, quickly giving up, and bulls employed large buy programs, seldom giving anyone "good" entires - creating this chase dynamic in low volatility. While I believe the lows in November are good to trade off of, is it smart to allocate risk to or above aths from current spot?
SP:SPXLong
by BigGayRay
Correction down and up again for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD slowly went up some more and took the liquidity above. Now it made a Weekly bullish FVG. So nNext week we could see a correction downto fill this and after that more upside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down. After a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
US500: Inflation Focus Keeps Momentum in Check The US500 (S&P 500 index) is trading just below its record high, reflecting a constructive sentiment that anticipates potential easing from the Fed and a seasonal 'Santa rally'. Investors, however, are showing caution ahead of key US inflation data. Fundamental Analysis Markets are concentrating on the delayed PCE Inflation Report , the Fed’s preferred measure, to confirm expectations for a rate cut and subsequent easing in 2026. Futures pricing shows a high probability of a 0.25% cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, which supports risk assets like the US500. Recent mixed labor figures, rising job cut announcements but low weekly Jobless Claims support a 'cooling, not collapsing' growth narrative, which generally favors equity markets. Technical Analysis US500 maintains a technically bullish posture, trading well above its EMA21 and EMA78, confirming a strong prevailing uptrend. However, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, which increases the risk of a consolidation. Immediate resistance sits at 6,920, close to the recent peak. Intraday support clusters in the 6,820–6,840 area , with stronger support at 6,730. Outlook If US500 closes above 6,920, the price might prompt a push toward the next target at 7,000. Conversely, a drop below the major support at 6,730 could lead US500 to retest the following support at 6,650. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Global Risk-On vs Local Weakness – Dec 4th Market Outlook 1) Macro Overview – Capital Rotation into AI, Gold, Tech, Crypto High-confidence signals: Fed rate cut probability: 87–90% DXY downtrend: bullish for Gold, EM equities, crypto U.S. 10Y yield: ~4.08% (stable, risk-on supportive) Sentiment: Risk-on (score 7/10) China stimulus: supports base metals & commodities Market interpretation: Lower yields + weaker USD → capital rotates into AI, semiconductors, gold, growth stocks, and selective crypto. 2) BIST100 – Global Rally, but Local Divergence Despite positive global momentum, BIST underperforms due to domestic structural factors. Why BIST is lagging: Persistent equity fund outflows (TEFAS) High real interest rates → pressure on industrial margins Weak liquidity & fragmented flows Foreign positioning still limited Key Technical Levels (High SEO weight) Support: 11,000 → 10,900 Resistance: 11,200 → 11,300–11,350 Bias: Selective bullish, not broad-based Strong sectors: Banks (AKBNK, YKBNK, GARAN) Gold miners (KOZAL) Defensive Energy (TUPRS, AKSEN) Exporters (TOASO, FROTO) Weak areas: High-debt industrials Low-liquidity midcaps Stories dependent on short-term sentiment 3) U.S. Stock Market – AI & Semiconductors Remain the Core Trend S&P 500 (~6,849) and Nasdaq futures continue to price a soft landing narrative. Leading themes (SEO keywords): Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductors Cloud Infrastructure HealthTech Institutional view: AI remains the dominant macro-theme for Q4 and early 2026. 4) Gold, Commodities & Crypto – Trend Continuation Gold (XAUUSD / XAUTRY) Spot: ~4,200 Strong uptrend, supported by: • weak USD • geopolitical risk • lower real yields Mid-term targets: 4,500 – 5,000 (This is heavily searched; TradingView pushes such ranges upward.) Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Volatile Bullish Structure BTC trades near 93,000, bouncing strongly from the 88k–90k demand zone. ETF inflows (~$222M) confirm institutional participation. Market structure: higher lows forming, but volatility remains elevated. Altcoin radar (high-engagement tags): SOL, SUI, ONDO, FET → selective rallies, no broad alt-season yet. 5) Ordo618 Strategy Playbook – Actionable Plan Short-Term Trading (Index/Futures) BIST30 December Futures: Bias: Bullish above 12,000 Buy Zone: 12,000 – 12,250 Targets: 12,500 → 12,600 Invalidation: below 11,950 / 12,150 Portfolio Positioning (Global Audience SEO) Equities (Turkey): Prefer banks & exporters Wait for pullbacks before adding size Thematic Funds / ETFs: AI, Tech, Semiconductors Renewable/Green Energy Hedging: 10–15% exposure to Gold (XAUTRY or XAUUSD) Crypto Allocation: BTC core, ETH secondary Altcoins max 5% of total book 6) Key Risks – What Can Break the Trend Local Risk: Prolonged equity fund outflows → structural sell pressure on BIST. Global Risk: If U.S. macro weakens too quickly → soft landing narrative flips into hard landing fears → global risk-off. Protection Strategy: Keep 15–20% cash buffer Strict stop-loss discipline Hold a Gold hedge Avoid overleverage
TVC:SPX
by ordo618
Bulls Hang Tough - US Data and Holiday Trading Make or BreakThanksgiving week delivered a nice rally to help November finish higher than October It's now December and we have a myriad of US News hitting the headlines before Christmas and New Year's bring us into 2026 ADP Non-Farm US PMI US Core PCE Non-Farm CPI / PPI FOMC (December Rate Cut Likely) Price action is truly key. November ended with a nice stable rally with broad market pumps encouraging an equal weight comeback trade for now (nearly 60% of S&P stocks > 50 period moving average, and 60% of S&P stocks > 200 period moving average) If the markets avoid a major slip or disruption to end the year, animal spirits may remain optimistic enough to keep the party going in 2026 and continue to climb the wall of worry as sentiment remains pessimistic US Market Key Levels 1) Oct 10 and Nov 20 candle lows 2) 200 period moving average 3) February 2025 all-time highs area Sector rotation is pretty clear. Broader market rotation is pretty clear, but overall the markets need to continue to show stable and steady earnings growth and trends and keep the AI narrative glowing with a positive outlook
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
1
Revisiting Market Views: Lessons from the S&PRecently, our view was that the S&P would remain supported by the 55-day moving average. Yet, the market traded below, closed below, and then staged a strong rebound back above that level. Looking closer, the bounce appears to have come from the base of the daily cloud — a critical support area around 6521. As long as this low holds, upside momentum remains intact, with potential to retest the October high at 6920. That said, our long-term perspective hasn’t changed: the index is approaching the top of a very long-term up channel, with limited upside capped near 7,300. Where does this leave us? • Upside momentum is intact • Risk/reward doesn’t justify new longs • No reason to cut existing longs • No reason to go short — the market still looks bid In short: patience and discipline matter. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Not trading advice, personal view and meant for education only.
SP:SPX
by The_STA
End of the Fed’s QT: What Impact on the S&P 500?The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2025. This step marks the halt of the reduction of its balance sheet, after several years devoted to withdrawing liquidity from the financial system to fight post-COVID inflation. Historically, the end of a QT cycle has often coincided with an improvement in the S&P 500’s trend. However, while this development is generally a positive signal, it deserves a nuanced analysis in a context where the index is already trading at historically high valuation levels. 1) A look at history: a frequently favorable turning point In previous episodes, notably in 2012 and 2019, the end of QT coincided with a stabilization, then a gradual acceleration of equity markets. The economic logic is intuitive: when the Fed stops reducing liquidity, pressure on financial conditions eases. Investors then anticipate a more predictable monetary environment, sometimes heralding a loosening cycle. This improvement in sentiment has often supported U.S. indices in the following months. This is not a mechanical link, but an observed trend: the end of QT acts as a relief, removing a monetary tightening factor that weighed on valuation multiples. 2) Why remain cautious despite this signal? The current context differs in several ways. First, by the end of 2025, the S&P 500 is showing valuation levels close to its records, driven by a handful of large technology stocks. This concentration means that part of the potential future upside is already priced in. Second, even if the Fed ends QT, this does not guarantee a rapid rate cut or a swift return to a highly accommodative monetary policy. The central bank may prefer to maintain a restrictive stance as long as inflation does not durably converge toward its target. Finally, investors will have to deal with persistent uncertainties: slowing global growth, pressured margins in certain sectors, and geopolitical tensions that may create volatility. 3) Why keep an optimistic bias? Despite these precautions, several factors justify measured optimism. Ending QT removes a significant headwind for equities. If inflation continues to normalize, the Fed will have greater flexibility, which could improve economic prospects and support corporate profits. In short, the end of QT is not a guarantee, but it represents a positive catalyst in a context where the risk of excessive market valuation is present. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
TVC:SPXEducation
by Swissquote