Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here.
=> The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do.
To put simply, a Q3...
Price is currently at the 50 % Fib level. Ill be expecting price to hold this as a strong support. For this trade to be valid we´ll need this support to hold and we hav to break and close above next resistance. If this fails to happen we could see a stronger bearish structure for next week.
After showing an Anti-climax pattern and the channel trend line acting as resistance, we would wait for a price correction. Indeed, the price fell with high bearish momentum and breaking the bull trend line. We would expect the following:
1. Price will test the bull trend line, and then assess the momentum and price patterns to determine next objectives.
=> Here we are tracking a break to the upside in USDCOP with a target of 3223
=> This flow is trading the recent underperformance in Columbia and playing it against USD strength via inflation and bond to equity flows.
=> This should be a quick and sharp move with low political risk in Columbia and upside in Oil prices being capped for now.(edited)
=> If risk rises...
I do not trade this kind of currencies, but if a student asks me, I'll try to show you a quick view of it. The key level for this asset is on this weekly chart.
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Fears that Turkey’s Lira crisis will drag down the currencies of emerging markets, compounded by falling global oil prices, pushed the Colombian peso to trade at $3,050 to the U.S dollar on Wednesday, and level not seen since June 2017. There is a potential for a breakout above 3500cop into the 4k-5k range.