Gold latest analysis and operational recommendationsOn Friday (June 14) before the US market, gold prices rose continuously, while hitting a high near 2338, with subtle changes in the global economy, next week's market forecast focused on the central bank's decision-making trend, the release of US retail sales data, and the supply crisis in the cocoa market. This article takes a deep dive into these key factors to paint a picture for investors of the potential movement of global markets next week. In the coming week, central bank meetings in the UK, Switzerland and Norway will be in focus. The meetings are expected to provide more evidence against the backdrop of a slowing pace of global interest rate cuts. Expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England before the Conservative election appear to be fading, with markets now pricing in about a 40% chance of a cut in August, compared with a 70% chance in September. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank has a 50-50 chance of cutting interest rates on Thursday after inflation stabilized in March. Norway's central bank is likely to issue new economic forecasts and is in no hurry to cut rates.
The dollar index rose for two consecutive sessions and is currently trading around the 105.70 level, up 0.46% on the day. The dollar is directly influenced by Fed policy and economic data. While the Fed pushed back the expected timing of rate cuts at its most recent meeting, weaker-than-expected producer and consumer price data, as well as a cooling labor market, have provided support for the dollar. Separately, the Labor Department released data showing initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 242,000 in the week ended June 8, compared with market expectations of 225,000. The rise could signal that the labor market is rebalancing and economic growth may slow, further supporting market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The strength of the U.S. economy and the timing of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is another focus for investors. Monthly retail sales figures for June 18 are expected to rise 0.3%, after being surprisingly flat in April. Consumer spending has become an important gauge of the economic impact of rising interest rates. While job creation in the U.S. far exceeded expectations in May, flat consumer prices showed mixed economic signals. The direction of global markets next week will be influenced by a number of factors, including central bank monetary policy decisions, the release of US retail sales data, and the supply crisis in the cocoa market. Investors need to pay close attention to these key events to make informed investment decisions.
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold yesterday's technical level in volatile trading ushered in a bearish downward acceleration down to break the bottom, Asian European prices first down to Pierce the 2308 mark to stabilize the shock recovery, afternoon European slightly bottoming recovery pressure 2319 mark suppression down the shock down to break the bottom, Finally, the second time in the United States to step down and Pierce the 2304 mark ushered in a rapid pull up breakthrough and stand on the European open 2319 line and continue to rebound, but the United States in the 2325 mark repeated shock saw again after the pressure to fall down the shock to break the bottom of the closing, the k line closed down to break the bottom of the bardo, the overall price at the 2325 mark again appeared under pressure to fall. Short-term bull rally repair has come to an end.
From the current trend of the golden day line, today's upper resistance is concerned about the second time in the morning, near 2316-2318, intra-day reflex relying on this position to continue to see the fall, the lower target continues to focus on breaking the bottom, while the lower support is concerned about 2290-2285, the day continues to rely on this interval to maintain high altitude low wide oscillating operation rhythm, Short term strong and weak divide focus on 2330 mark, the daily level did not break through and stand on this position before any backdraw is a short opportunity to maintain the trend to participate in the main tone. Specific operation strategy I will prompt in the plate, timely attention. In summary, today's gold short-term operation ideas refer to the suggestion of rebound shorting, callback to do more as a supplement, above the short-term focus on 2318-2320 resistance, below the short-term focus on 2277-2280 support, friends must keep up with the rhythm. To control the position and stop loss problem, strictly set the stop loss.