XAUUSDGold =Bullish The market went down to hit a Daily P.O.I and reversed and then an internal structure on a 1H TF turned Bullish and about to high the potential profit area...is the market going to go the Extreme P.O.I for the market to continue the Bearish trade by CoolSlavesFx1
Key Lessons On Managing Volatility!Managing volatility is crucial for achieving consistent returns and minimizing risk. Volatility targeting strategies aim to adjust portfolio allocation to maintain a constant level of volatility, regardless of market conditions. By systematically adjusting exposure based on volatility forecasts, you can create a more stable and predictable trading performance. 1️⃣ Understanding Volatility Targeting Volatility targeting involves adjusting the size of your trading positions based on the forecasted volatility of the market. The goal is to keep the portfolio’s volatility at a predetermined level, regardless of market conditions. This approach helps mitigate risk during turbulent times and allows for more aggressive positioning when markets are calm. For example, if the target volatility is set at 10% annually, and the current market volatility is estimated to be 20%, a volatility targeting strategy could reduce the position sizing to half. Conversely, if the market volatility drops to 5%, the strategy would double the position size to maximum size in order to maintain the target volatility. 2️⃣ Calculating Volatility To effectively implement a volatility targeting strategy, it’s essential to accurately measure and forecast market volatility. Historical volatility can be calculated using the standard deviation of past returns over a specific period. More advanced techniques, such as GARCH models or implied volatility from options prices, can provide more accurate and responsive volatility estimates. We reference implied volatility numbers provided by our squawk service. For instance, using a GARCH model, you can forecast future volatility based on past data and current market conditions. This allows for more dynamic adjustments to position sizing. 3️⃣ Adjusting Position Size Once volatility is measured, the next step is to adjust the position size accordingly. This can be done by scaling the position size inversely with the current level of volatility. A common formula used is: Position Size=Target Volatility / Current Volatility For practical implementation, suppose your target volatility is 10% and the current market volatility is 15%. If your typical position size is $1000, you would adjust it to approximately $666 to maintain the desired risk level. 4️⃣ Combining Volatility Targeting with Trend-Following Volatility targeting can be effectively combined with trend-following strategies to enhance performance. In a trend-following strategy, you take positions based on the direction of market trends. By incorporating volatility targeting, you can adjust the size of your trend-following positions based on market volatility, ensuring consistent risk exposure. For example, during a strong uptrend with high volatility, you would reduce your position size to mitigate risk. Conversely, during a low-volatility period, you would increase your position size to capitalize on the trend. 5️⃣ Incorporating Risk Management Volatility targeting inherently involves risk management, but additional risk controls can further enhance the strategy. Setting maximum position limits, stop-loss levels or damage control triggers, and regularly rebalancing the portfolio are essential practices. These measures prevent excessive risk-taking and ensure the portfolio remains aligned with the volatility target. An example of risk management in volatility targeting is setting a maximum position size limit to prevent overexposure in highly volatile markets. Even if the calculated position size suggests a larger position, the limit ensures that risk remains http://controlled.It's all about never exceeding your maximum size. 6️⃣ Backtesting and Optimization Backtesting is a critical step in developing a robust volatility targeting strategy. By applying the strategy to historical data, you can evaluate its performance, identify potential weaknesses, and optimize parameters. This process involves testing different volatility measures, target levels, and position sizing rules to find the most effective combination. Backtesting a volatility targeting strategy over a decade of forex data can reveal how the strategy performs in various market conditions, such as financial crises or periods of low volatility. Optimization might involve adjusting the target volatility level or the lookback period for calculating historical volatility. 7️⃣ Case Study: Volatility Targeting in the EUR/USD Market Consider a case study of applying volatility targeting in the EUR/USD forex market. Over the past few years, the EUR/USD pair has experienced varying levels of volatility due to economic events, monetary policy changes, and geopolitical developments. By implementing a volatility targeting strategy, you could adjust your position sizes to maintain a consistent risk level, regardless of market conditions. For example, during the heightened volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic, a volatility targeting strategy would reduce position sizes, protecting the portfolio from large swings. Conversely, during more stable periods, the strategy would allow for larger positions, capitalizing on market trends without excessive risk. Volatility targeting is a powerful strategy for maintaining consistent risk levels in Gold Trading. By accurately measuring volatility, adjusting position sizes, combining with trend-following strategies, incorporating risk management, and optimizing through Back-testing, you can achieve more stable and predictable returns.by WillSebastian2
XAUUDPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) by sepehrqanbari2
XAUUSD ( GOLD ) SELLING IDEA shallom consistancy traders , i can see gold trying to escape from the demand zone , fully of liquidity and coming on 15 minutes time frame the market has created a channel ( bullish channel) and has bleached leaving a nice last kiss , that was a buy signal for short term trade towards the high time frame supply zone( that may act as an OB ever since it is characterized by the , few x tics of a good point of interest like , FAIR VALUE GAP to filled simply imbalance . # where we expect the marlet to spike with the deep sell , rember to risk few ampunts of pips just above the suppy zone. #Good luck family # wait and be patient Shortby EvarnickChaula2
Attention price range before FOMCGold dropped from peak to 2,340 USD before Fed information After CPI rose to a three-day high past the $2,340/troy ounce mark, gold prices now appear to have digested that initial move and returned some gains amid a weaker dollar and Yields fell ahead of the FOMC event later in the session. The 2340 level is unlikely to hold before the FOMC. The 2352 resistance zone will be better for you if you want to SELL gold. Today it is predicted that the FOMC will continue to support the dollar, so the possibility of gold falling will be very high. Scalp support may be around the old bottom of 2390by TVS-TraderUpdated 7
DeGRAM | GOLD pullback in the channelGOLD is moving in a descending channel between the trend lines. The price reached the upper boundary of the channel and reacted instantly to reaching the 50% retracement level of the last bearish impulse. We expect a pullback after a retest of the dynamic resistance. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!Shortby DeGRAM1120
Gold next possible zone | Follow up.As you know after Dec: of Gold price on Friday.Gild market Opened and didn't Moved any long or short Look at the chart now we Identified that Gold Price will go up For retest Set your Targets 2325- And wait for Confirmed sell entry.Longby Oliver_Targets13
Gold next possible zone | Follow up.As you know after Dec: of Gold price on Friday.Gild market Opened and didn't Moved any long or short Look at the chart now we Identified that Gold Price will go up For retest Set your Targets 2325- And wait for Confirmed sell entry.Longby Oliver_Targets11
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Price ACTION AnalysisAs I discussed in my previous weekly outlook on OANDA:XAUUSD , the market took a significant hit after the NFP release in the NY session. The stronger-than-expected jobs report has sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as soon as expected, leading to a pullback in many markets - including Bitcoin. Initially, the gold market ralled, but it struggled to break through the psychological level of 2,400 and subsequently fell below 2,300. On the weekly timeframe, the price action formed a bearish long tail, indicating potential bearish momentum. This pattern is reminiscent of a similar price action we saw last year, where the market declined for several months. On the daily timeframe, the market appears to have formed a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline of this pattern has recently been broken, coinciding with the 2,300 level. Furthermore, this breakout also occurred on the 4H timeframe, where it marks a breakout of the upward channel. This convergence suggests that the market may be poised for further momentum in the direction of the breakout. If it breaks below 2,280, which is previous month's low; we could see a deeper correction. However, as long as we stay above 2,300, the market is in a consolidation phase between 2,300 and 2,400. A pullback could be acceptable, with a potential target of 2,200. Pay attention to interest rates, which could impact gold prices. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻Shortby LingridUpdated 2626105
XAUUSD LONGThis is hat I have mapped out so far, if you look at my previous post I was originally bearish but now I think once we break the green trendline we have a push upward :) we had a nice dump from our bear flag (look at previous post) but it didnt really give the dump I wanted. lets see where this goes :) HAPPY TRADING!Longby BULLIONAREUpdated 10
XAU/USD : Possible of Growth ? Let's See ! By analyzing the #gold chart in the 2-hour time frame, we can see that the price has finally dropped below the $2,300 level and reached the demand zone at $2,288. As you can see, the initial reaction to this level has been positive. Only if the price stabilizes above the $2,277 to $2,288 range can we expect further short-term growth in gold. With the significant drop in gold, a large FVG (Fair Value Gap) and LV (Liquidity Void) have been created, which I expect will be filled in the medium term. The expected return of this analysis is a minimum of 40 to 100 pips, and in the best-case scenario, up to 700 pips. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban Longby ArmanShabanTradingUpdated 9955
*Attention Investors! XAUUSD Rally Alert!*🚀Calling all traders! 🌟 XAUUSD is blazing, smashing records with finesse! 🔥 Here’s the latest: 🔍 XAUUSD Overview: 📊 Engaged in a gripping duel between 2316 and 2318. 🤔 Is a breakout looming? 📉 Bearish Outlook: 📉 Be alert for potential declines if it dips below the range! 🎯 Targets: 2312, 2311. 📈 Bullish Outlook: 📈 Anticipate buying opportunities if it breaks above! 🎯 Targets: 2323, 2326. 💬 Join the Discussion: 💬 Share your perspectives as we journey through this golden terrain! 🗣️ Let’s reach new heights together! 💼✨by hanalyeeforex4
GOLD → Shakeout and false breakdown of 2325. PPI aheadFX:XAUUSD rises to 2340 on the back of yesterday's CPI and Powell's comments form a shakeup in the market and the price of the metal drops to 2308, forming a false breakdown of the key liquidity area of 2325. Today the market is expecting PPI (MoM) and Initial Jobless Claims. Producer Price Index is expected to be lower than last period 0.1% instead of 0.4%, but it all depends on the actual data. Mind you, yesterday the market got a CPI of 3.3%, versus the expected 3.4%. But Powell did not say anything interesting in the change of views and still sticks to the hawkish side. Technically, gold is breaking local upside support and forming a consolidation below 2325. If the data is bullish for the dollar, gold could continue to fall towards 2290-2265. Resistance levels: 2325, 2340 Support levels: 2305, 2291 Technically gold is showing weakness, but it reacts quite strongly to any small positive news. The whole emphasis on today's news, if the fundamental background remains negative, we will consider the targets below, if there are hints of a change in the background, we can consider price growth to 2340-2355. Regards R. Linda!Shortby RLindaUpdated 252560
Falling towards pullback support, could it bounce from here?XAU/USD is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 2,292.30 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 2,271.43 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 2,334.80 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group. Longby VantageMarkets5
Is gold still bearish?📊 According to the selling pressure in the market, if the range of 2290 units is broken and the price stabilizes below it, the price may fall to the range of 2240 units🎯, and in case of strength, the range of 2180 units🎯🎯. 📊 Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 2370 units.Shortby arongroups11
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: A relatively quiet day today with Gold giving us a nice long trade on the red box set up once volume entered the markets. Yesterday we said we would stick with the plan and look up into the bias zone trading the longs level to level until we hopefully reach our destination. This move is now on caution as we've completed our targets so far and have CPI and FOMC around the corner, so we're going to play it safe. So, what now? We have support here 2310 and below that the extension level 2303, we feel as long as price is above these levels we could see a further move completed into the order region which is where we suggested we will be waiting to short. Resistance is at the 2315 level and if broken above 2330 so early sellers may feel the stretch if they take it up. For now, we're not looking for anything apart from sticking to the plan, unless we see a clean reversal or set up presented. We would suggest traders who are less experienced in the markets refrain from trading until after FOMC where the markets will be cleaner. It's setting up for a big move tomorrow and the whipsaw is going to be sure to catch traders out, the trade come after the event, please keep that in mind. As always, trade safe. KOG by KnightsofGold2261
Gold moving down < 2300 first? 13/June/24XAUUSD "sent" for "euphoria" after "better" than expected CPI report where traders expecting FED will cut rate soon BUT again the sentiment "changed" few hours after FED Powell's Come & play "Guesswork Games" restart again..So as today Core PPI? is all pre written script as people like "fairy tale stories"..Longby SteveTan115
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK Hey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels 2309 resistance with a open gap before that at 2296 and 2286 Goldturn support. We will need to see a test and lock on either levels to open the next range. We will need to see ema5 lock above 2309 to open the range above or a rejection before this will follow to find support at the retracement range. A cross and lock below 2286 will open the confirm the retracement range and a further cross and lock below the retracement range will open the swing range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGETS 2296 2309 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2309 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2326 BEARISH TARGETS 2286 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2286 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2274 - 2259 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2259 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 2274 - 2259 SWING RANGE 2240 - 2219 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFXby Goldviewfx2121210
Gold Approaches Key Support Level Gold dropped more than 80 points on Friday 7th June due to a resurgent US dollar – taking the precious metal back to a key area of support. Let’s take a look at the various trading opportunities that may present themselves at this key level. Daily Candle Chart Analysis Gold’s daily candle chart is locked in a long-term uptrend with prices trending above the 200 day moving average (MA) since the turn of the year. This is a simple yet powerful observation that should not be overlooked. Established trends take considerable time and effort to reverse, hence gold’s recent weakness may present an opportunity to position yourself within the long-term trend at attractive levels of risk/reward. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Hourly Candle Chart Analysis The hourly candle chart highlights the negative momentum which occurred on Friday – dragging the market back down into the key support zone. And with Monday’s price action stabilizing near support, swing traders are faced with three scenarios: 1. Break Above Hourly Swing Resistance: In this scenario, short-term momentum would realign with the long-term trend, potentially driving prices back to the top of the recent consolidation range. 2. Bullish Fakeout at Support: A break below support, followed by a quick rebound above it, would create a bullish fakeout. This pattern could trigger trapped shorts to cover, benefiting the bullish outlook. 3. Break of Support: Traders should also consider the possibility of a support break. To mitigate the risk of a fakeout, it’s advisable to wait for a daily candle close below support before confirming this scenario. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. by Capitalcom116
Gold Trading in Bearish watersFundamental analysis: Even though Bear cycle has started, Gold is delivering Bullish spikes however they are not as aggressive as they were. The decline on Bond Yields also helped (panic capital) as it is well known that when Bond Yields are losing with every Hourly candle, Gold should benefit. Gold is slowly approaching the #2,252.80 psychological benchmark on Spot prices as I expect it to be realized before Friday’s session (end of the week) on current Selling leg. Despite the fact that DX is still on a Medium-term Ascending Channel and well Supported on Daily Chart, Gold is pushed Higher (apart from the obvious Bond Yields Sell-off effect) as Fundamental developments are progressively adding Buying pressure on Gold and in most cases without any firm reason Buying is favored lately. Technical analysis: After testing and breaking #2,300.80 benchmark, I am even more certain in my Bearish outlook (remember my Lower Low’s strategy that Gold always delivers #3 Lower Low’s and #3 Higher High’s and then price a Natural correction to normalize Overbought or Oversold levels). I expected small pullback again where I would engage new set of Selling orders, pursuing #2,300.80 once again and #2,252.80 in extension. On every fiscal crisis and World’s economy on a decline, Gold is rising as an safe-haven (on High demand) asset and DX engages Buying rally once crisis is on the very own beginning, and gradually loses value as Investors step deeply into the crisis. Regarding today’s session / Critical day for Gold as it is on crossroads for the Short-term. The Daily chart remains an Descending Channel and Hourly 4 chart already Priced in a small correction / pullback motion. All are (Xau-Usd) Spot prices numbers. Hourly 4 chart completed #5 almost straight candles for the first time since February #15 (accomplishment rarely seen lately) which means that if today's candle closes below #2,300.80 benchmark, my estimations are pointing to #2,252.80 Weekly Low’s and local Lower High's Upper zone. My position: As yesterday's session contained Stop-loss hunt, I have set my Stop wider and fortunately I was not stopped out. However I have closed my order on breakeven and will Trade the CPI later on throughout the session as I will re-Sell Gold as Higher as I can ahead of the news. Regardless CPI or not, I do expect #2,300.80 and #2,252.80 Targets next.Shortby goldenBear88229
XAUUSD Gold on Federal Reserve Day and AfterGold on Federal Reserve Day and After If inflation decreases, gold will rise (this is inevitable). You need to be both a hunter and the hunted. How to trade gold on Federal Reserve Day and with inflation When the inflation report is released, you should focus on the dollar index chart and then decide when to enter. I expect the price of gold to drop to 2294 or 2284, and from there, it will start to rise with the first target being 2299 and the second target being 2318. The second scenario is to sell from 2337 to 2348 with the first target being 2324 and the second target being 2310. If a half-hour candle closes above 2337, the target will be to reach 2380. If a half-hour candle closes below 2337, the target will be to sell down to 2286. If a half-hour candle closes below 2286, the target will be to sell down to 2256 and 2237. Good luck.by Hejaaa7