power surge w/ 2 pennants, 3 equidistant poles, then sideways motion within larger pennant/triangle...gold line = election night trend line
Today could be the day for Dow 20k. (Just like everyday for the past 10 trading days) No surprises here, expecting small range holiday trading so scalping is what I do with hopes of catching a solid runner. Let's get Dow 20k so we can all move on with our lives.
Plan all week for me is to scalp both ways and hopefully catch good runners.
A double-headed h&s vs an inverted double-headed h&s. Election night trendline is broken but Santa Clause is here. Will be bring us all a new all-time high? After the rocket rally, looks like we have leveled off and chart looks sideways to me. 2244-2272 has been our home for a week now and I wouldn't be surprised if it remains our home until 2017.
Inverted h&s along with an upside channel breakout is all positive news for bulls, but I will not chase. I'm content waiting for a pullback or selling a strong rally.
A double-headed head&shoulders pattern combined with Quadruple Witching can only mean one thing: Craziness. The break of the yellow trend will be the tipping point as it's the trendline from election night low. Should hopefully have a decent range today and I'm thinking lower. May the market force be with you.
Nice bounce off the downside channel trendline Thursday. I'd like to see prices get down to 49.25 so I think there's still another short potential within this channel. I'll be looking to short the upper channel trendline so somewhere like 51.50-52.00...Above 52.25 I'd might be forced to change sentiment. Will be keeping watch of the US $ as well. As long as that...
Volatility from Wednesday's action post FOMC announcement should carry over to today. Santa Rally vs Rate Hike can be a lot of fun for day trading. Dow 20k is still a price magnet but will now require a bit more effort. Yellow line is trendline from Election night low.
Crude is down nearly $4.00 from Sunday night's higher gap open (what a sell). With the 51.50 gap now closed without an immediate rebound, I'm bearish and see it going to 49.25. Perhaps Thursday might see a small rebound but I'll be looking to sell rallies, especially if I can get a level near the trendline drawn from Sunday night's high. Downwave will be intact...
Look how perfectly the pennant breakout targets fell in line during this recent price surge. The distance of each "pole" = Continuation target from breakout point of pennant. Fed days are usually turning points for waves. Dow 20k is under some pressure with Wednesday's price action.
notes: old high rejection cash gap bounce pivot becoming resistance 2246 area bull zone (old resistance) 3x bounce
Chances are that there will not be much excitement until FOMC. When it comes to the Fed I throw out all technical analysis, for the most part. The .25% hike is not only expected, but required by the movement we've seen in Treasuries and in Fed Fund Futures whose Front month contract during Fed meeting months is nearly a 100% accurate indicator for predicting Fed...
This 52.25 area is holding better than I expected so far as resistance has become support and trendlines from bottoms hold but with that doji on the daily along with the gap that wants to get filled I think lower prices are the better bet. I will stay flat at this area though as the risk/reward with the elements at play don't fit well into my profile. The effects...
I'm not expecting much before the FOMC announcement. I'm anticipating a non-trend, balanced day, which usually occurs before key events. With that said, I'll be scalping hard from both directions.
Running into old resistance has maybe given some minor support but doubt it will last long. I would like to see the gap filled first so I'm still liking to play this from the short side.
It wouldn't be impossible, but having another monster week like last week two weeks in a row might be a stretch. I expect to see more 2-way direction this week as it's FOMC time with the announcement on Wednesday. Important inflation data also coming our way Wednesday and Thursday. Dow 20,000 will be reached at some point this month as Santa delivers the markets...
Crude prices are up nearly 25% in past few weeks. The higher gap open Sunday night because of whatever opec deal w/ Russia brings prices to an attractive price area. I like the idea of shorting around the rising upper trend channel line say 54.25-54.50. It's worth taking a shot as prices are at their 12month highs. If the area hold I'd assume closing the gap would...