AscensionTrading

AscensionTrading Updated 

Long Term thoughts for BTC into 2024 and 2025. I was hoping for one more push into 20k before a larger breakout for some prime accumulation levels, but but this actually makes for a more bullish chart. This chart is a LOG chart and BTC never broke below that channel which is key. Picture perfect bounce of the lower trend line. This next wave should be...

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IF this wave structure is playing out, it should not break below $193.00. If it breaks that level, it is likely to fill the gap in the $140s and is still in a larger corrective pattern. If it holds, $314 is a great target.

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It has been awhile since I have put together a big bear chart. The weekly double top on SPY, head and shoulders on IWM, RSP and ARKK, and the carnage and weakness seen in IYT, XLF, XLU, XLP, XLRE, XLV and XLY has me thinking about bear scenarios. That does not even factor in the macro economic and geopolitical uncertainty on the horizon. As I said above, SPY...

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MSFT has a number of similarities with ROKU and PYPL from the summer of 2021. MSFT is a main leader in the current market so even a sell off into the mid $250s would drag the market lower. MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL and AMZN and the majority of big tech names need to put in a significant bottom and head higher for the market to see higher highs this year.

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Bar overlay for GOOGL from 2010. Price action lines up very well with wave counts, gaps, fibs, just all the stuff.

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The green bar pattern is taken from the 2008 top to the 2008 bottom. The downturn took 511 days from top to bottom of the market and was a 57% downturn. We are have been tracking the 2008 price action extremely closely for about a year now. In 2008, at 358 days from the all time high, we broke to new lows and got a capitulation event that lasted another 100 or so...

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I have to get in on the fun of the 2008 comparison. Let see what happens. I see 300 on SPY as a good buy area long term but will be buying shares starting at 358.

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Here are some previous bear draw down (percentage terms) and the number of trading days it took until bottom.

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Last time QQQ 100sma and 200sma were crossing over and also acting like a resistance. Lots of chart similarities between these two times. September 15 2011 vs todays price action on QQQ

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Comparison to SPY in 2001...one more low to go? Charts look similar

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Lots of similarities in what is happening today with what the May crash and subsequent bottom.

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Here is my "Mr Squigs" for SQ over the next 16 months. We will see how well I nail this one. Selling the 125 Put for Jan 21st 2022

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Bars overlay from Jan 2021. This pattern would have us pulling back to our long term averages again after going parabolic. We can then and consolidate in price and time.

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angles for wave 1,2 and 5 are all the same and 5 ends at the 300% Fib line. WHere I sold a Put was a good place to buy based on this analyis, will watch it for a more long term entry. Solid Trend

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Getting out of FB at 224

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Looking for a good exit price. I really liked the gap and entry of this one.

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off the 100

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off the 200