BarnBuilder

BarnBuilder Updated 

I came across an interesting analysis involving fractal pattern matching. The fractal match is interesting because it lays a 2 hour fractal from 2018 over a 1 day chart. The match is good for almost 6 months so I don’t want to discount the fractal because its born from a different time base, but what justifies patterns of different time frames? I’m going to...

BarnBuilder

Read this article this morning. It's enlightening, however, let's look at the facts: medium.com Premises of the article is that when the 10y interest rate < 2y interest rate (yield inversion) that a recession is immanent. 1. I used FRED data T10Y2Y and Wikipedia for recession dates. I know the definition of recession is controversial, but I chose this...

BarnBuilder

As I've posted before, I'm not ultra bullish on crypto. The volatility is great for traders, and technology is gaining acceptance which is exciting, however, I've never bought into the endless talking heads claiming BTC is going to 100K tomorrow..."the big green bars are on their way". My biggest concern is the context crypto has thrived. Since its inception in...

BarnBuilder

Just to start - I've essentially been out of the market for at least a week now. I'm trading BTC in the band, but with only 10% of my portfolio. I've purchased some alt's at good buying opportunities, but I've taken profit versus hold them. Although I continue to see the possibility of a final rally beyond the ATH, I'm on the sidelines waiting to analyze this...

BarnBuilder

Blockchain Backer called it. I probably work the hardest when I make a mistake.  I really strive to understand what I missed, and I make a commitment not to do it again.  I assume there was a clue to the latest sell-off, and the best traders cant miss them.   While I dumped some of my portfolio at the top, I took a drawdown on the recent BTC correction.  So,...

BarnBuilder

First off - I moved 80% of my portfolio to Tether after the 1st 3 hrs of trading. I'm still trading ETH and BTC, but its easier for me to move a large amount of a few coins than deal with 10 alt coins - more on that another day. The Good - Selling volume is very weak. Certainly not a follow through of yesterday. The Asian market woke up to the shock and...

BarnBuilder

I was curious about the current price 46.6 - 47K. I've been trading this range for about 4 hours now and price seems to have found temporary support here. I've been trading it all day so I was curious what is special about this narrow range we seem to have gravitated to. I pulled out the volume profile and analyzed the buying profile from the bottom of the...

BarnBuilder

Everyone knows BTC needed to correct, but this? Personally, I tapered back on Monday evening and then again at 4am as my TradingView alarms started to trigger - I hold them tight for adequate warning. I'd like to say that I sold my whole bag, but I only got about 40% off. I didnt comprehend a selloff of this magnitude. So, I've suffered some unexpected...

BarnBuilder

I've struggled to understand volume with the latest BTC rally from 29K. As I've said before, my Kucoin BTC volume shows exceptionally strong volume, but the BLX (BraveNewCoin Index) shows weak volume. Obviously the Kucoin volume is exchange specific while the BLX volume is a summary of multiple large exchanges. The difference is too much to ignore and something...

BarnBuilder

Price action this weekend and through today shows price descending in a channel with a very common pattern. Price moves up to a predictable level and then "bam" hard selling moves the price back to a predictable level very quickly. In my years, I've come to see this as professional selling - smart money selling. There is definitely not enough demand at 50K to...

BarnBuilder

Big picture - The run up to 50K is out of steam. Volume is drying up, RSI is breaking down. Price action shows professional selling. The upward bullish daily channel has most likely broken down. It failed to hit the top of the channel, and now its working its way sideways through the bottom of the channel. What's next? Where's the big money 1. Addresses...

BarnBuilder

Several days ago I unloaded all but my core positions. I laid out my long term vision and short term vision. I'm right where I want to be - flush with cash, not suffering drawdowns, and looking for my next position. I said I would add 25% back in at 46-47K, and another 25% if the bounce off 46-47K was strong. So why haven't I added 25% yet? The answer is...

BarnBuilder

Ok - I neutralized my portfolio. I'm 90% in USDT. The 10% I have in core positions are balanced by leveraged shorts in ADA and ETH. Long Term: I've said that I believe this is a relief rally and not the big one. Summary: 1. Addresses >1,000 BTC are not being generated - this metric has not been wrong 2. Monthly chart shows we are probably in the...

BarnBuilder

I have been a trader in the Kucoin coin (KCS). I downsized my position into the run up to ~20 but kept 10%. Needless to say, I wished I'd sold all of it near the top. On 5-6 June it made a sharp move up. It caught me off guard, and I wasn't sure what to do. It was against the overall market direction. Do I let it run thinking it will go back to 20? The...

BarnBuilder

Comparing the fractal patterns of the 1st top of the 2013 bull run to the current market, it looks like a do-over. The peaks and valleys line up very well though the 2013 price volatility was a bit more severe. My thought processed is summarized by the lyrics "should I stay or should I go now - if I go there will be trouble - if I stay there will be double" -...

BarnBuilder

I have 4 concerns with the current BTC rally - call them skepticisms - even though I rotated cash into crypto after my last post () with a short term price target is 50.5-51.2K. and long term target of 86K. 1. BTC dominance continues to struggle. 2. BTC has not corrected above the .618 fib (it held the .5 fib which is encouraging) 3. New whales are not being...

BarnBuilder

Watch BTC. A good entry may be at the door step. There is a lot of technical's intersecting at this moment. BTC has sold off for 4 days (arguably 5) on increasing Kucoin exchange volume. RSI is oversold and above 50. It sits at the rising channel lower bound which corresponds with the 200 DMA. Volume has been above average during the latest retracement,...

BarnBuilder

Volume is usually defined by the number of coins traded. I like to see volume in terms of the dollar value traded. What I'd really like to know, however, is who is trading the volume. I'd like to see what "smart money" is doing. BTC blockchain data contains available information on the ledger that helps level the playing field for retail traders like me. ...