Starting with a key level of 1.62531, this line was the previous resistance (Oct.2013) and later turn as a support (Dec. 2013~Feb.2014) of GBP/USD. Next, it started treading water around the psychologically important level of 50% Fibonacci retracement. This pair turns very bearish, once it fell through the 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement with lower highs and lower lows.
Short positions below 1.26271 with targets @ 1.24492.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.26271 look for further upside with 1.26599 as a target.
Comment: 1.) RSI is trending down. 2.) 20 days MA cross down over 50 days MA. 3.) Looking to sell off on the bounce down from Fib. 23.6%.
6 Year Timeframe: Jan.2009~Nov. 2014
67% of the time, prices are within Fib.23%~50%.
33% is out of the range of Fib.23%~50%; and in those times, 70% of the price is above Fib. 23.6%.
and in the past two years, price has been bounded within the inner green channel of the pitchfork.
So, I am taking a wild guess that this trend will keep going on, despite recent...
2002 to 2011: 2 yrs Bull --> 3 yrs Bear --> 2 yrs Bull -->4 yrs Bear -->3 yrs Bull --> ?starting by a 4 yrs Bear?
as long as the price does not break above the market psychological level of 110 for too long. The gravity of this pair will be pulling downward